Phillies’ sudden Jhoan Duran problem has one clear solution

The Philadelphia Phillies have lost three of their last five games, and All-Star closer Jhoan Duran is responsible for two of those defeats. He allowed an RBI triple in the ninth inning of Sunday's crucial game against the Atlanta Braves that could swing the NL East and, just four days later, gave up a tie-breaking home run to Cam Smith, leading to a series loss against the Astros.

As frustrating as it is to see Duran, a closer who entered Thursday's action with a 1.69 ERA in 55 appearances, look human all of a sudden, one clear tweak can get him back to being one of the best and most-feared closers in the game.

Jhoan Duran needs to alter his pitch selection

Part of what makes Duran so unique is that he's a reliever who can throw 100 mph fastballs with ease but also has a five-pitch mix, and he throws all five of those pitches at least five percent of the time, per Baseball Savant. As good as Mason Miller is, he's only really a two-pitch pitcher. It's great that Duran has all of these offerings, but it's worth noting that both of these back-breaking hits have come off the exact same pitch — splitters.

In theory, Duran's splitter should be his best pitch. He averages an absurd 97.6 mph with his split-fingers, so given that, with the movement that pitch generates, why shouldn't it be a dominant offering? Well, Duran treats it as if it's his best offering, throwing it a whopping 48.5 percent of the time. His next most-used pitch, his four-seam fastball, is thrown just 26.3 percent of the time. The results with those pitches couldn't be any different, though. Here's how opponents have fared against these pitches entering Thursday's contest.

He throws his splitter close to two times as much as his fastball, yet he generates many more whiffs and initiates much softer contact against the fastball. The numbers are even more skewed now after Smith's home run against the splitter.

Throwing more fastballs and fewer splitters will get Jhoan Duran back on track

Again, the split finger should be a great pitch. In fact, it has been a great pitch in the past. Opponents hit .237 with one home run against it in 2025. Now, Duran has given up two home runs with that pitch while allowing opponents to hit well over .300 against it. Some of those results, given the expected batting average, can be attributed to bad luck, but Duran's splitter is simply not as effective as his fastball.

And I don't think that has anything to do with the offering itself, as, again, it has the velocity and the movement to be one of the best individual pitches in the sport. When you throw it nearly 50 percent of the time, though, it's a lot easier to predict. If you know there's a 50/50 shot that a splitter is coming, why not sit on that rather than sell out for a 100+ mph fastball?

Duran should be doing some tinkering with his pitch usage. He should be throwing more fastballs and fewer splitters. If he doesn't want to throw so many fastballs, why not throw some more sweepers to give him something that moves horizontally? Duran has thrown that pitch 10.3 percent of the time in 2025, but the opposition has gone 1-for-21 against it with a 63.2 (!) percent whiff rate. That won't sustain if he throws it more, but that pitch is sure to help him out if he threw it, say, 15 percent of the time.

Duran should still look to throw that splitter, just not as often as he has been right now. Choosing his spots rather than throwing it once out of every two pitches will lead to better results for a guy who, despite his recent struggles, can still be as dominant as any reliever in the sport with the right pitch usage.

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