The MLB postseason is only a couple days away, yet a handful of division and Wild Card races remain unsettled. The AL West is making the wrong kind of baseball history; the AL Central is a neck-and-neck scramble, while the Phillies are doing everything in their power to keep Arizona's faint October dreams alive.
Let's make some final predictions ahead of a pivotal Saturday night slate.
AL Central: Cleveland Guardians (84-76) vs. Chicago White Sox (83-77)
The Chicago White Sox won the season series against the Cleveland Guardians (7-6), which means the Southsiders hold the tiebreaker. If Cleveland wins out, it will claim the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason. If the White Sox win out and Cleveland loses once — or if Chicago wins once and Cleveland loses twice — the Sox get the buy.
Prediction: Chicago wins the AL Central
The MLB schedule gods blessed both Cleveland and Chicago with easy matchups to end the season. The Guards have two games left against the 92-loss Kansas City Royals; the White Sox face the 103-loss Colorado Rockies twice more.
On the bell curve of MLB contention, however, Colorado sits at the absolute lowest point — much lower than Kansas City. So the margin for error is especially narrow for the Guardians. The White Sox have more to play for than the Rockies, hoping to author a fitting end to their season-long underdog narrative. I'd bet on Chicago to win out. The Guardians need only to slip up once at that point. The Royals, led by MVP candidate Bobby Witt Jr., are better equipped than Colorado to play spoiler.
The White Sox probably lose a head-to-head series against Cleveland in the playoffs; their pitching is substandard and their youth breeds inconsistency. When it comes to this final regular season push, however, the spunky Sox can get the job done.
AL West: Houston Astros (79-81) vs. Texas Rangers (79-81)
The Houston Astros dominated their regular season matchups against the Texas Rangers (9-4), so the tiebreaker belongs to Houston. The AL West is all-time bad; for the first time, a division winner will not finish the season with a winning record. Still, until MLB changes its postseason format, the record does not matter. Winning the division guarantees home-field advantage in the Wild Card round, at the very least.
Prediction: Houston wins the AL West
Houston has two more games against the last-place Athletics, on the road in Sarcramento. That ballpark generally favors the visitors, especially when it's a team with the Astros' offensive firepower. The A's play in a minor league stadium and lack the pitching necessary to combat a team like Houston, which is built to stack runs.
Texas lost 10-2 to the Minnesota Twins on Friday. Minnesota's postseason hopes are dashed, but at 76-84, the gap in quality between the Twins and Rangers is not vast. The Rangers are basically praying that Houston drops the ball against a horrendous A's team. While not impossible, the Astros are very much in the driver's seat, with a roster that knows how to handle itself in high-pressure environments.
NL Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies (87-73) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (86-74)
The Philadelphia Phillies held a five-game lead over the Arizona Diamondbacks with eight games left. A four-game lead with five games left. And, as Matt Gelb and Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic so helpfully point out, the head-to-head tiebreaker belongs the Arizona. Philadelphia's current advantage: one game, with two left on the schedule.
The Phillies are facing the American League's top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays. The Diamondbacks are battling the San Diego Padres, who clinched a postseason berth earlier this week. The Padres have more to play for than Tampa, still jockeying for position in the Wild Card race. But the Diamondbacks are scrapping and clawing like hell. The Phillies, conversely, are asleep at the wheel, having scored two runs total in their last three games.
Prediction: Diamondbacks claim final NL Wild Card spot
Philadelphia has a bullpen game on Saturday against the Rays, in the middle of a nor'easter. The Phillies' bullpen has totally and utterly imploded in September, one of many ailments dragging them down. The offense is lifeless. Kyle Schwarber has fallen off the map in recent weeks; Bryce Harper's triumphant August gave way to a miserable September. J.T. Realmuto is 0-for-his last 30 at the plate.
It's hard to believe in the Phillies to win a game at this point, much less two straight against one of MLB's best teams. Their backs are against the wall, but nothing of late tells us that Philadelphia will meet the moment. Arizona probably won't sweep the Padres outright, but a single Diamondbacks win — paired with two Phillies losses — would hand the National League's sixth and final seed to the Snakes. If the Diamondbacks win out, the Phillies would need to win out, too. That feels impossible right now.
Philadelphia has controlled their own destiny for a while. Technically, the Phillies can still climb as high as the No. 4 seed. With the vibes in the toilet, however, I predict that Philadelphia will watch the playoffs from home. An offseason of tough questions awaits.
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