It's only fitting that a three-game Wild Card series featuring a pair of bitter rivals who both have a blend of equally unforgiving flaws and star power is going to a winner-take-all Game 3 to be played on Thursday night. With a trip to the NLDS on the line, both teams are going to have to go all out to try and win this game, meaning difficult and uncomfortable moves on the pitching side of things will need to be made. There's a good chance that the winner of this game will be managed by the individual who pushes the right buttons.
This could mean either sticking with someone longer than you otherwise would've or having a quick hook. Plans almost never play out how teams hope, but in a perfect world, here's a look at what the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies might want to see happen in this contest.
Predicting the dream Braves' pitching plans for Game 3 of Wild Card series
Innings | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1 | Ray Kerr |
2-5 | Grant Holmes |
6 | Dylan Dodd |
7 | Robert Suarez |
8 | Didier Fuentes |
9 | Raisel Iglesias |
Only in case of emergency | Dylan Lee, Brent Suter |
The Braves are the more difficult team to project of the two because they're starting an opener, Ray Kerr, in this game. While Kerr, a left-hander who has gone as far as 3.1 innings in an outing this season (and has allowed just two hits in 6.1 innings across two outings against these Phillies) could go beyond an inning, should the Braves really push him? Ultimately, I think they should be trying to get him through Bryce Harper, meaning he'd face the first three batters (and hopefully get them all out.
From there, the Braves will turn to their "bulk" guy, Grant Holmes, for a while. Holmes had a solid year, posting a 3.44 ERA in 31 appearances (29 starts) for Atlanta this season, and he even threw six shutout innings on Labor Day against these Phillies. What sticks out about him is that opponents hit .209 with a .580 OPS when seeing him for the first time in a game and .280 with an .886 OPS when seeing him for the second time. With that in mind, Walt Weiss must ensure that the top of the Phillies order only sees him once. Using Holmes for four innings after he faces an opener accomplishes that.
From there, things get tricky. Dylan Dodd should be used over Dylan Lee whenever the duo of Harper and Schwarber come up later in the game, whether that's in the sixth or seventh inning. Robert Suarez, fresh off the IL, should be used in the other one of those innings. That should, hopefully, get the Braves to their best relievers in the final innings.
Of course, relying on Didier Fuentes and Raisel Iglesias is easier said than done in this spot since they pitched in Games 1 and 2, and relievers rarely pitch in three straight days. Desperate times call for desperate measures, though, and these are the best relievers in that bullpen, even with Fuentes looking shaky in this series.
Predicting the dream Phillies' pitching plans for Game 3 of Wild Card series
Innings | Pitcher |
|---|---|
1-4 | Aaron Nola |
5 | Jesus Luzardo |
5-8 | Zack Wheeler |
9 | Jhoan Duran |
Only in case of an emergency | Alex McFarlane, Jonathan Bowlan, Andrew Painter |
The Phillies' plan should be a much simpler one, with more rotation depth to lean on in this game. Aaron Nola was chosen to start, and since he's fully rested, he can theoretically go as long as Don Mattingly wants. If Nola is throwing the ball exceptionally well, perhaps he can go beyond four innings, but for now, let's say he should only get the first four, leaving five frames for the rest of the staff to cover.
Next in line should be Jesus Luzardo, who it's hard to know what to expect from. Luzardo was brilliant in Game 1, throwing five innings of one-run ball, but that was a couple of days ago. He probably doesn't have more than an inning in him, and the fact that he probably isn't 100 percent right now is worrisome, but he's as talented as anyone in this staff. If he's available, and all signs seem to indicate that he is, they should let him have an inning.
From there, Zack Wheeler should be the choice. Wheeler is on three days' rest, which is likely why he isn't starting this game, but he should have enough in the tank to go three innings. Wheeler has never pitched on short rest before, but he's also one of the greatest postseason pitchers of his generation. If there's anyone Don Mattingly should be trusting in the late innings, it's No. 45.
In the ninth, the Phillies should be giving the ball to their closer, Jhoan Duran. Yes, it was tough to watch him blow Game 1, and it was a bit weird to see him be unavailable in Game 2, but he should be rested and ready to go in the clincher. One way or another, Duran needs to play a role in this game as one of the best closers in all of baseball.
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