Projected Red Sox Wild Card rotation and lineup after improbable turnaround

Remember when the Boston Red Sox fired manager Alex Cora following a 10-17 start? And then do you remember when everyone understandably predicted that they’d miss the playoffs for the sixth time in eight years?

If only the Mets had hit the reset button as the Red Sox did in April. Interim manager Chad Tracy’s club woke up on Monday at 84-72 with a magic number of three. They’re all but locked into the AL’s No. 5 seed and a first-round matchup with the No. 4 Yankees beginning next Tuesday night.

Unless disaster strikes over the next seven days, we already know that the likes of Adley Rutschman, Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman will make the postseason roster. But what about the final bench spots? Who will be the No. 3 starter behind Gray and Ranger Suarez?

For those unfamiliar with postseason roster rules, it’s essentially the same as the regular season: You get 26 players, but no more than 13 pitchers; we personally prefer an even distribution of 13 and 13 rather than the 14 and 12 that some have floated as an option for teams like the Yankees. Teams can also adjust their rosters between series or in case of injury.

Projected Red Sox postseason lineup

Story has spent much of September hitting fifth or sixth, though he’s occasionally slotted into the cleanup spot. Barring injuries, we’re expecting him to remain in the middle of the order. He’ll likely bat before Durbin, who has hit sixth in 67 of his 148 appearances — and ​​for those who haven’t seen much of the Red Sox this year, we promise that the inevitable NBC graphic listing him at 5-foot-6 is accurate.

Admittedly, we’re not sure whether Kiner-Falefa or Sogard makes more sense as the starting second baseman. Both offer extreme versatility and should factor in as pinch runners or bench options. Interestingly, Kiner-Falefa’s eight stolen bases mark his fewest since 2019, and that includes the 2020 COVID season. 

As for why Rutschman is in the No. 3 spot, that’s almost exclusively where he’s hit since joining the Red Sox at the trade deadline. As one of the team's only reliable lefty bats, Boston will really be relying on him as a run-producer.

Projected Red Sox postseason bench

Obviously, whoever doesn’t start at second base will come off the bench. Wong is your protypical backup catcher who can provide competent offense (albeit with a below-average .656 OPS) but should only start in case of emergency. 

Jones has been electric since joining the Red Sox, hitting .340 with four homers, nine RBI and a 1.124 OPS in 63 plate appearances. Remember, it’s always the unexpected players who make a significant difference during the postseason.

Projected Red Sox postseason pitching staff

Starting rotation

Although the Red Sox have essentially confirmed that Crochet would pitch out of the bullpen if he’s healthy, who knows what would happen if they face a win-or-go-home scenario in Game 3? It’d be hard to fault Tracy if he aggressively returned the All-Star lefty to the rotation, and we’d eagerly support the decision.

As we’ve repeatedly insisted, all is forgiven with a championship. The National League’s top teams have a far greater advantage than their American League counterparts, and we know how weak the non-AL East playoff teams are. For what it’s worth, we’d love to see Crochet demand that Tracy use him as a starter next week.

Bullpen

No major surprises here. Chapman’s 1.95 ERA is nearly a full run higher than his 1.17 mark from a year ago, but he nonetheless remains one of the league’s elite closers. Good luck stopping him in October — er, late September, unless they upset the Yankees next week and reach the ALDS.

Keep your eye on Bello, who began the year in the rotation before moving into a swingman role. He threw eight innings of one-run ball against the Rays this past weekend, so we’ll see if he’s the first pitcher off the bench if Gray, Suarez, or Tolle get knocked out early.

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