Teruaki Sato is the ultimate boom-or-bust free agent in the 2027 class. The 27-year-old Japanese star, who stacked 39 homers with a .991 OPS in Nippon Professional Baseball this past season, has a profile eerily similar to that of Munetaka Murakami. He's a third baseman who might not actually stick at third base; he's a powerful left-handed hitter who struggles with the swing-and-miss.
Murakami's instant success ought to benefit Sato, who's in the market for a nine-figure deal. Then again, there's a chance Murakami's success leads teams into a trap. Sato's issues are far from settled, and there's always an element of uncertainty with players transitioning from international ball to the majors. Signing Sato has a chance to backfire team. Let's determine which teams can most afford the risk.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
On one hand, the Los Angeles Dodgers (barring major changes to the salary cap structure this winter) can mitigate the risk of an inflated contract better than any team. Their deep pockets and even deeper farm system offer protection against a bad investment.
That said, L.A.'s NLCS loss exposed the consequences of an expensive and aging roster. As Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and even Shohei Ohtani decline, it will be fascinating to monitor how willing and able the Dodgers are to pay top dollar for reinforcements. Even the richest teams have a spending limit, and the Dodgers carry enough talent — and enough risk on the current roster — to render Sato a somewhat unnecessary luxury. Why not bet on their elite minor league pipeline, stocked with cheap and controllable talent, to fill the back end of the depth chart?
6. Texas Rangers
With all due respect to the Texas Rangers, who are only a few years removed from a World Series run, it's hard to take them seriously as Sato suitors. Anything can happen, especially if Sato's market is quieter than expected a la Murakami. But the Rangers just don't spend at the same level as other teams on this list historically. Plus, uncertainty around the future of Corey Seager plants the seeds of doubt for 2027 and beyond. Is Texas really prepared to hand Sato a risky high-dollar contract after a thoroughly deflating season? It's hard to unequivocally say yes.
Perhaps that is precisely why the Rangers should be willing to take the risk. No front office should be shamed for spending money, and Texas clearly needs to rock the boat somehow. If a Sato signing does not pan out, however, it just digs the Rangers a deeper hole.
5. New York Yankees
To be clear, all of these teams should express interest in Sato. This is more an analysis of the downside. If there's one thing the New York Yankees don't really need, it's another left-handed thumper who ends up buried by strikeouts, with a questionable glove on the left side of the infield, to boot. The Yankees don't need Sato in the outfield or at first base, so he'd be asked to man the hot corner defensively. That is a risky proposition for a defensively challenged team with a rampant disregard for fundamentals.
Sato's bat, compounded by the presence of established stars like Aaron Judge, Ben Rice and Cody Bellinger, could turn the Yankees into a superpower. There is upside aplenty. That said, the Yankees would do better to target a solid righty bat with a refined plate approach and a positive defensive footprint, in a perfect world.
4. New York Mets
The New York Mets are MLB's richest team and therefore can afford the risk of Sato, in a literal sense. There is also a mounting sense of desperation as Francisco Lindor exits his prime. Juan Soto didn't get $765 million just to watch baseball on the couch every October, and the Mets' most recent slate of high-dollar signings — Bo Bichette, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams — flopped.
So the case for splurging on Sato, whose youth and power could align with Soto's timeline, is quite strong. On the other hand, the Mets' high roller status has yielded precious little of late. Maybe the Mets need to change their approach and spend smarter, rather than jumping at the flashiest names available and watching the on-field product implode.
3. San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres have felt like the second-best team in the National League for two straight seasons now. No team gave the Brewers more trouble en route to the World Series; the Dodgers fought tooth-and-nail to get past San Diego in 2025. With new ownership and a substantially depleted farm system, the Padres' best path to major change is a home-run free agent signing.
Tarik Skubal probably ain't happening, but Sato's youth — with the potential to contribute at a high level for several years to come — makes him a tantalizing option. Manny Machado and especially Xander Bogaerts are on the decline. The Padres could use a third star on the same general timeline as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Jackson Merill. If Sato pops, he gives San Diego the most dangerous outfield in baseball and a path to the NL pennant.
2. Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners are — on paper — a great team! Depth, especially on the pitching staff, with a ton of quality youngsters mixed in with the expensive stars, mostly all in their prime. So what happened last season? It was truly a mystery, as the Mariners bombed hard. Cal Raleigh went from an MVP candidate to a liability. Injuries took their toll, to be sure, but it felt like a broader systemic issue.
Hopefully the Mariners can get back on track, but this roster probably needs a shake-up. If Raleigh and Julio Rodriguez aren't going to reach their apex at the plate, Sato's potential for 30-plus homers and 100-plus RBI becomes hard to ignore. There's downside risk, of course, but the Mariners have a clear path to the crown if Sato can shake the lineup out of its stupor.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
The Philadelphia Phillies are in a pretty dire spot. The core of this roster is aging at an alarming rate. Trea Turner fell off a cliff last season, while Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were both frustratingly inconsistent. The Phillies' rotation is a superpower and the bullpen will probably course correct, but unless this lineup takes a huge step forward, it's hard to imagine Philadelphia going anywhere in October. That's assuming the Phillies can get to October.
Sato does not help the Phillies solve their defensive woes, which are equally grave, but he can add much-needed slugging and protection behind Harper in the lineup. Alec Bohm was never a real cleanup hitter and Luis Arraez couldn't deliver on his pre-trade deadline hype. Sato also gives the Phillies a potential long-term corner outfielder, which is more important than ever after Brandon Marsh's second-half collapse. Another variation of the Adolis Garcia/Harrison Bader/Austin Hays rental simply will not serve.
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