Ranking the NL postseason rotations once Shohei Ohtani returns for the Dodgers

Both Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow are expected to return to the Los Angeles Dodgers' rotation this week. One can't help but think back to last season, when L.A. reached full strength at the last possible second and surged into October, eventually capturing their second straight World Series title. The Dodgers sure hope lightning strikes twice.

Ohtani won't stretch out into a full starter's workload right away; Glasnow will also have his workload monitored early on. Piggyback setups with guys like Eric Lauer and Emmet Sheehan seem likely, if not inevitable. When healthy, the Dodgers have far too many proven starters to actually start — especially in the playoffs, when rotations typically condense. But as Los Angeles teases a full-strength pitching battalion, let's rank them against the rest of the contending National League staffs.

6. San Diego Padres

The Padres moved mountains at the deadline to get both Casey Mize and Robbie Ray, which was important — because this rotation would be in dire straits without them. San Diego's farm system is a ghost town and with Nick Pivetta still on the shelf, Michael King has spent a lot of time flying solo this season as San Diego's apparent ace.

King should still get the Game 1 nod in what is presumably the Wild Card round. He has been a rock ever since he arrived in San Diego; there's a reason A.J. Preller went above and beyond to re-sign him in free agency. Ray and Mize probably get the next turns. Neither has performed up to par since the trade, but an adjustment period is to be expected. So long as Mize in particular can settle in over the next month, he's someone the Padres can feel reasonably good about as that elusive "second ace."

Ray has broadly outperformed his metrics all year, but he's so experienced and so established, and he just keeps worming his way out of trouble. There's something to be said for veteran know-how when the lights are brightest, and the Padres will trust Ray to scrap his way to the finish line and keep the offense within striking distance.

Walker Buehler has not been great this season (4.63 ERA), but the fact that he has made 26 starts and pitched 126.1 innings — and it hasn't been a total disaster — is a huge win considering where his stock was a year ago. He's clearly better than Randy Vásquez, who should not be relied upon for important innings unless absolutely necessary come October.

5. Chicago Cubs

Chicago worked hard to improve a middling rotation at the deadline. The Cubs have suffered under the weight of injuries all year, with Ben Brown, Edward Cabrera and Cade Horton all spending significant time on the IL. Cabrera is expected back before the playoffs, but for all his talent — and for all Chicago gave up to acquire him last winter — the 28-year-old hasn't shown much. He's probably better off in a bullpen role in the playoffs.

Clay Holmes is clearly SP1 if the Cubs are basing it on merit. He missed time this season, but he has a sterling 2.49 ERA through 12 starts with a sinker-baller profile that aligns beautifully with Chicago's elite infield defense. Shōta Imanaga might be a bit underrated at this point; he can get hammered when the command falters, but he has a deep arsenal and a lot of finesse qualities.

Kevin Gausman was Toronto's top ace during a World Series run last season and could claim seniority, even as a relative newcomer. But he has struggled this season, with a 6.19 ERA in three starts since the deadline. Gausman's splitter still cooks and he knows his way around the block in October, but Chicago probably shouldn't spotlight him in Game 1.

Matthew Boyd gets the fourth spot as a recent All-Star with an established track record in Chicago, but he's an extremely volatile pitcher who may not actually be better than David Peterson — although neither option is ideal in a playoff setting. Boyd started Game 1 for the Cubs a year ago and got knocked around, but Chicago can pray he brings his A-game this time around.

4. Atlanta Braves

The Braves were lampooned for their trade deadline inaction, picking up an underperforming Tyler Mahle and little else to help a fading rotation. Well, Mahle has a 1.52 ERA in four starts with Atlanta, looking more like the fringe ace we witnessed for half a season in Texas a year ago. At this current rate, there's a good chance Mahle is the No. 2 behind Chris Sale come October.

And the Braves can always feel good about Sale, who's one of the five or so best pitchers in the world, even in his late 30s. Durability questions always linger in the back of the mind, but so long as Sale is healthy, the Braves can feel good about their chances whenever he takes the bump. There's a nonzero chance Atlanta tries to squeeze the rotation down to three come October, just to maximize Sale's turns on the mound.

Either way, veteran lefty Martín Pérez has established himself as a solid mid-rotation option, even if the numbers under the hood are less outstanding than his 3.12 ERA suggests. Bryce Elder's inconsistency is well documented, but what he has done all year — through thick and thin — is pitch deep into games. He can keep the Braves in the ballgame for fivec or six innings without wavering too much.

Grant Holmes' 3.64 ERA is clearly a mirage, but he has done enough to serve as Atlanta's primary depth options, at least until AJ Smith-Shawver or one of the Braves' rookies puts something compelling on tape over the final month.

3. Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers' pitching pipeline pushes forward undeterred. Despite receiving criticism at the time, Milwaukee looks genius for moving on from Freddy Peralta when it did. Jacob Misiorowski, meanwhile, is cruising to the Cy Young award. It's worth monitoring his velocity down the stretch, as his unique hard-throwing style has almost never been sustainable in MLB history, but he has the feel of a unicorn and has shown no signs of slowing down.

Kyle Harrison hasn't missed a beat since returning from a month-long IL stint. The talented southpaw has a pristine 2.84 ERA with 122 Ks in 98.1 innings and looks the part of a solid No. 2. Meanwhile, rookie Logan Henderson — with a 2.60 ERA and 0.89 WHIP through 13 starts — might be the Game 1 starter for some of these teams.

There are more questions when it comes to the fourth turn through Milwaukee's rotation, but 27-year-old rookie Shane Drohan has earned the nod on the strength of his elite fastball-slider combo. Dustin May has exceeded expectations this season and the Brewers clearly felt strongly about him at the deadline, but he's the odd man out unless his performance dramatically ramps up down the stretch. Which, given the Brewers' pitching wizardry, never say never.

2. Philadelphia Phillies

Cristopher Sánchez's velocity is down this month and his sinker is getting knocked around a bit. Zack Wheeler has also struggled to a 5.19 ERA in four starts in August, raising concerns about whether Philadelphia's Cy Young candidates can sustain their heavy workloads. Based on reputation and overall track record, however, it's hard not to feel good about the Phillies' top three. It's the best three-man gauntlet, on paper, in the Majors.

That includes Jesús Luzardo, of course, who's quickly recovered from a bumpy start to the campaign to deliver another top-five Cy Young case. There's a nonzero chance the Cy Young voting ends up as: 1. Misiorowski, 2. Sánchez, 3. Sale, 4. Wheeler, 5. Luzardo (although Cincy's Chase Burns probably sneaks in there somewhere, at the end of the day).

The real questions arise with Philadelphia's No. 4 starter, if the Phillies don't get aggressive and just run their three aces in rapid succession. With Sánchez and Wheeler both showing signs of fatigue, that probably is not the ideal setup.

Aaron Nola has seniority and probably gets the nod as a result, with a 2.51 ERA over his last five starts. The knuckle curve still rips and he has so much big-game experience to lean on. That said, Andrew Painter looks like a completely different pitcher now than he did at the beginning of the season. The fastball is revived, he has incorporated a wipeout changeup and his slider is generating a ton of whiffs. If he keeps it up, Painter might force their hand, as he offers a deeper, more dynamic arsenal than Nola at this point.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

No real surprise here. The Phillies have a strong case — especially if Painter can sustain this late-season evolution — but the Dodgers' depth of top-end talent is unmatched. There's really no "wrong" answer for who should start Game 1 between Tarik Skubal, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell. Ohtani, with a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts this season, clears any pitcher on the Padres or Cubs. He's fourth as a luxury, and can piggyback with Glasnow (a former All-Star and longtime ace) or Rōki Sasaki (the former No. 1 prospect in baseball) if needed.

Buried so far down the depth chart that we can't include them are Sheehan, a legitimate mid-rotation arm, and Kris Bubic, a 2025 All-Star with the Royals who's slated for a late-season return. Lauer, who has pitched 103.1 innings with a sub-5.00 ERA, is a complete afterthought.

Even with Skubal struggling relative to the extremely high bar he set as a back-to-back Cy Young winner in the American League, the Dodgers have arguably the two most bankable arms in the sport. Yamamoto was World Series MVP a year ago, showcasing incredible poise on the biggest stage. Skubal is an absolute tank. Snell, himself a two-time Cy Young winner, has looked a lot like his old self upon returning from the IL.

If the Dodgers' core four is healthy enough to unleash Glasnow as a postseason reliever, like they did a year ago, with Sasaki pitching high-leverage innings late in games — like he, too, did with tremendous success during their 2025 run — it will be hard to bet against Los Angeles. There's a debate to be had around the Phillies' top end pitching talent, but the Dodgers are once again best equipped for a deep push into October.

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