Updated NL Cy Young rankings after Jacob Misiorowski shortened return for the Brewers

Who would you rather have: an incredible pitcher who starts 30+ games or one of the most dominant pitchers of all time who starts, say, 26 games?

That question is, weirdly, what the 2026 National League Cy Young race may come down to. While the American League is deadlocked between Cam Schlittler and Dylan Cease, the NL has a clear favorite with a serious lead: Jacob Misiorowski. But should he be this much of a favorite?

That’s what we’re going to get into. While Misiorowski is, as the italics suggest, one of the most dominant pitchers of all time, the Milwaukee Brewers appear to be scaling back his workload. There’s always a chance he ramps back up, but Cristopher Sanchez is already building up a lead in innings pitched — something I think really matters in the Cy Young conversation.

Both guys started Monday night, and both starts complicated the race plenty. As always, we will go from five to one, but this is really three honorable mentions and then a two-man field. I would be shocked if anyone else snuck their way in. All odds from FanDuel.

5. Zach Wheeler

• Odds to win NL Cy Young: +1400
• One stat to know: Wheeler has only pitched 93 innings after missing the first month

Wheeler has been majestic since returning from injury this season, posting impressive numbers across the board and filling out the third head of Philadelphia’s Cerberus of starting pitchers: Wheeler, Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo. 

I respect what Wheeler has achieved coming off a pretty scary injury in 2025, and this might actually be his last season; he’s said publicly he plans to retire after 2027 when his contract is up, but … we may not have a 2027 season with the looming lockout. It’s been a nice story, but I don’t think Wheeler will have the service time to sway voters away from his superior teammate when the chips are down.

4. Chase Burns

• Odds to win NL Cy Young: +2000
• One stat to know: Burns gives up the second-most fly balls per nine innings of any qualified pitcher

Burns recently inked a $105 million extension with the Cincinnati Reds, a moment apparently delayed by the Reds GM Brad Meador spilled coffee on the contract and it had to be reprinted — that’s a real story. I mean, guys, have we heard of docusign?

In all seriousness, Burns has been excellent this season basically throwing just four-seam fastballs and sliders, with said slider turning into his most effective pitch. He still gives up way too much hard contact though, and that is hurting his underlying metrics. The Cy Young isn’t for underlying metrics, though, so we’ll see.

3. Chris Sale

• Odds to win NL Cy Young: +800
• One stat to know: Sale’s fastball velocity jumped from 94.8 in 2025 to 95.9 this year

Sale is a baller, we all know this, and he’s finding new ways to get dudes out as he relies less on his slider and more on his four-seamer. A spike in velo of one entire mile-per-hour is absolutely significant, and it’s made Sale’s arsenal much more deadly. With how much the Atlanta Braves are relying on him for starting pitching, that’s excellent work.

Sale is definitely third, there’s no real argument for anyone else to be third, and it’s not an insult that he is. His counting stats are great, his underlying metrics are great; they just aren’t the level of our last two guys. But Sale managing a third act on the Atlanta Braves was not on my Boston Red Sox-branded bingo card. Seriously, good for him.

2. Christopher Sanchez

• Odds to win NL Cy Young: +700
• One stat to know: Sanchez and Sandy Alcantara have both pitched more than 130 innings; no one else has cracked 120

There is no statistical argument that Sanchez has been better than Misiorowski, and that’s why he’s here at number two. But there is a philosophical argument about pitcher impact, about the responsibility of a starting pitcher and about what he means for his team. Sanchez pitches big innings, he goes long and aims to win games himself. Should he be given bonus points for his IP when that’s usually a manager decision? Should Misiorowski be dinged for it?

You tell me. Personally, I think it matters how many innings a guy has pitched because total amount of impact is just as important as the quality of said impact. There’s a real chance that Sanchez passes Misiorowski in WAR by virtue of his workload and how consistent he is. Would you still rather the guy with the 1.57 ERA who throws 105? Probably, but it’s not a slam dunk. I think that +700 figure is mispriced.

1. Jacob Misiorowski

• Odds to win NL Cy Young: -360
• One stat to know: Misiorowski’s 100.5 mph average fastball velocity is the highest among starters since tracking began 

If the season ended today, Misiorowski has the award in his pocket. But it does not, and the Brew Crew have the NL Central in a chokehold. With how hard Misiorowski throws, would it be crazy for the Brewers to be ultra-conservative with his workload? 

That would probably be smart. Misiorowski went four great innings on Monday night, and was coming off a pre-All-Star scratch. Milwaukee probably just wants to be cautious, which is not a crazy concept given how good their roster is when healthy. He will probably still win the award if he manages to avoid any kind of long-term absence, though, since he leads MLB is basically every stat people care about. A 1.57 ERA is just hard to argue with.

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