Reds and Cardinals have the same problem: They're not quite good enough yet

The St. Louis Cardinals and Cincinnati Reds are set to face off in a critical three-game weekend series at Busch Stadium beginning Friday, with real postseason implications on the line. While neither of these teams leads the way in an incredibly competitive NL Central, both are currently above .500 and in the thick of the NL Wild Card race.

The problem is that while both of these teams are good, neither of them is good enough to be considered true World Series contenders. They both have clear flaws that'll hold them back from going on a magical postseason run, and perhaps prevent them from getting there altogether.

Reds and Cardinals look like fake contenders right now

Yes, both the Reds and Cardinals are above .500 despite playing in the toughest division in the sport thus far, and they deserve credit for that. Is this really going to last, though? It feels like both of these teams are clearly overperforming.

The Cardinals, despite being four games over .500, have a -12 run differential. The Reds, despite being 31-30, have a -41 run differential, the third-worst in the National League and the fifth-worst in all of baseball. That number is worse than teams like the Marlins, Mets, Astros, Tigers and Twins, all of whom are at least five games under .500. Run differential doesn't tell the whole story, but is that not incredibly telling?

There are things to like about these NL Central rivals, but there's just as much to dislike — if not more. There's a reason that both the Cardinals and the Reds just don't seem good enough, at least right now, to be considered true contenders.

Pitching will hold the Cardinals back in 2026

The Cardinals are a great story, as they're competitive even though they didn't expect to be. They traded a slew of veterans, including ace Sonny Gray, for prospects over the winter, intending to win in 2027 and beyond. While it made sense for St. Louis to choose on this path, boy, do they miss said veterans now — especially Gray, given the state of their pitching staff.

There's some talent here. Riley O'Brien has really broken out as the Cardinals' closer, and JoJo Romero is a solid set-up man. Michael McGreevy has broken out as well and looks to be a future building block in the rotation. The problem, though, is that beyond that trio, there isn't much to like. Look at the Cardinals' rotation, for example.

Outside of McGreevy, this rotation is made up of No. 4 or No. 5 starters, and even McGreevy feels due to regress a bit at some point given the lack of whiffs he generates. You can count on the Cardinals to score a good amount of runs with Jordan Walker, JJ Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera and Alec Burleson forming a rock-solid core, but can their pitching staff limit the opposition enough?

The rotation is good enough to keep St. Louis around where they are right now — fighting for the third Wild Card spot — but it feels like the Cardinals are not good enough to do anything other than maybe squeak into the playoffs before an early exit. That'd still be a success considering where expectations were in spring training, but the fact of the matter is that they are not good enough to do damage in the postseason.

Reds' offense, bullpen will hold them back from meeting expectations

The Reds, on the other hand, were a team some expected to make a second-straight postseason appearance. They got off to a strong start, and are still a game over .500 despite some rocky play over the past month. But as is the case with St. Louis, it's hard to see Cincinnati doing much damage in the postseason, if they can even get there.

While the Cardinals have a strong position player core, it feels like the Reds are a three-man show in that department. Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart are strong foundational pieces and outfield JJ Bleday has broken out in a huge way, but who else scares you? Guys like Nathaniel Lowe and Spencer Steer are fine, but Eugenio Suarez's Reds reunion isn't going as well as anticipated, and Matt McLain has been a major disappointment. Heck, both Noelvi Marte and TJ Friedl, two massively important players from their 2025 run, have played so poorly to the point where they've both been sent down to Triple-A at times.

All in all, the Reds are tied for 19th in runs scored and 23rd in home runs despite playing half their games at one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the sport. That's not going to cut it, and yet the offense isn't even all that's worrisome about this team.

While the Reds, even without Hunter Greene (and even with Brady Singer and Andrew Abbott struggling through down years), their bullpen is an absolute mess. Cincinnati ranks 27th in the Majors with a 4.96 reliever ERA, and it's been a MLB-worst 6.55 since the start of May. Emilio Pagan's injury has hurt them, but it's not as if Pagan was pitching very well prior to landing on the IL. Until this gets fixed, I don't see how the Reds can be any better than they are right now.

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