Last winter, Luis Arraez took a one-year prove it deal for $12 million to go play second base for the San Francisco Giants. Arraez parlayed this opportunity into an All-Star season before getting shipped to the Philadelphia Phillies at the trade deadline — and it appears that his 2026 revival has revived his market in a major way as he gets set to hit free agency again this offseason.
As great as he was in San Francisco early on, Arraez wasn't nearly as good after the deadline. He still finished the regular season with a .310/.345/.419 slash line, a .764 OPS, six homers, 64 RBI and a 2.9 bWAR, but his offensive numbers dipped considerably in Philly, and he was held off the team's Wild Card roster with a sprained ankle. If he is unable to return this postseason should the Phillies advance, Arraez will be judged on his strong regular season that didn't end so well — all of which would seem to make him a particularly tricky case.
At least one rival exec, however, thinks the infielder could get paid much more than fans might think.
Rival executive predicts Luis Arraez's next contract
One rival American League executive told FanSided that they believe Arraez could land a five-year, $100 million deal in free agency this winter. This would put Arraez at $20 million AAV, which would be third in baseball for second basemen on multi-year deals behind Marcus Semien and Jose Altuve ($25 million AAV each) and Nico Hoerner ($23.5 million AAV).
The executive compared Arraez to Hoerner, the Chicago Cubs second baseman. Arraez and Hoerner are both 29 years old and have similar offensive profiles. Hoerner signed a six-year, $141 million contract extension with the Cubs back in March, fresh off a 2025 season in which he slashed .297/.345/.394 with a .739 OPS, seven homers, 61 RBI and 29 stolen bases. He also won the second Gold Glove Award of his career. But Hoerner had a 6.2 bWAR last season and Arraez has only had a bWAR above 3.0 three times in his career, which came in three consecutive seasons from 2021-2023.
Arraez was stellar for the Giants, slashing .324/.360/.440 with a .800 OPS, four home runs, 43 RBI and a 3.0 bWAR in 105 games. He also greatly improved his defense this year at second base, posting 12 Outs Above Average at the position (fifth-best in MLB). However, he did not have as great of a showing with the contending Phillies. In 46 games, Arraez hit .278/.309/.369 with a .678 OPS, two homers, 21 RBI and a -0.1 bWAR with Philadelphia. He now has a sprained ankle and was left off the Phillies' Wild Card roster as a result.
Across his eight years in the big leagues, Arraez has struggled defensively; this season was easily Arraez's best year with the glove. He also doesn't hit for power or walk very much. That being said, Arraez has elite bat-to-ball skills and contact rates that should at least get him up to $20 million AAV on a multi-year deal. He is also a four-time All-Star, two-time Silver Slugger winner and three-time batting champion. Arraez had to take a prove-it deal this past offseason, and now he should cash in after an All-Star campaign in 2026.
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