Seiya Suzuki is not an All-Star, but might be Chicago's secret weapon

Walking off Mason Miller might be enough to get you an All-Star nod in my book, but has Seiya Suzuki done enough to earn sneaky All-Star consideration? I mean, check this out: Wrigley Field on its feet, sending a deep drive into left and bouncing San Diego Padres left fielder Jase Bowen into the ivy as he tries to make a leaping catch. Surely we can at least consider it.

Well, no. We can’t, unfortunately, consider Suzuki for an All-Star nod. Sorry to kill the vibe immediately, but the National League Outfield/DH situation is as loaded as it gets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, who leads MLB in WAR, might miss the All-Star game via fan voting and will need another way in.

That’s as far as Chicago Cubs outfielders go, and Shohei Ohtani has already been named the starting DH for the NL because he was the top vote-getter in phase one. So in terms of actual All-Star consideration, it’s not going to happen for Seiya. Thank you guys so much for reading, if you liked it, punch that like button in the face (like a boss) (high fives all around), and I will see all you dudes … in the next articl—

Seiya Suzuki is not an All-Star, but might be pointing upward

I’m just kidding. We wouldn’t be here talking about Seiya Suzuki if there wasn’t something of note, and there is much of note. Much home-field advantage, such slugging, major monthly discrepancies. Suzuki is, depending on when you check, having either an elite hitting season up there with the best sluggers in the league (April and June) or is completely unplayable (May). 

Suzuki slashed .328/.430/.567 in April and .315/.388/.551 in June. That would undoubtedly be All-Star stuff … had it not been for his .190/.265/.286 May (yikes). Because of that slump, Suzuki is not going to produce the type of season that merits All-Star consideration. But there is still plenty of intrigue. 

Why the massive swing in productivity? First, the wacko and mathematically false explanation that is nonetheless interesting: Suzuki has been way better at Wrigley Field than anywhere else this year, posting better hitting stats across the board at home versus on the road. And, with the flimsiest correlation imaginable, Suzuki played 10 games at home and eight on the road in April, then 12 at home and 16 on the road in May. June? He played 13 at home and 12 on the road.

Does that explain the monthly totals? No, not at all, that’s way too small a difference. But is Suzuki undoubtably a better hitter at Wrigley? Absolutely, he seems very comfortable with that left-field wall. Did I just include this because I hand-counted all of Chicago's games before realizing it was statistically insignificant? Maybe.

Suzuki's home run luck may have played a role in his up-and-down season

What I do think matters, as it does for every power hitter, is home run rate versus fly ball rate; it is a passion project of mine to explain to the world how this rate stat underwrites the entire power hitting statistical military industrial complex. For example, take Suzuki’s slugging. 

Obviously, we see the massive spike in April, the downturn in May and the presently occurring resurgence back to fun town. But you could argue that the one stat most associated with Suzuki’s success is, in fact, HR/fly balls:

This isn’t, like, surprising, given that home runs are literally part of the calculation with slugging, but it works for other stats too like average, wRC+, basically anything that measure’s a hitters offensive value. And while it all makes perfect sense (home run = good, flyout = bad) it’s also a reminder that, sometimes, the ability to hit the ball in the air and get it into the seats is all that separates a great hitter from a terrible one. 

Seiya Suzuki's numbers have stabilized in a positive direction. That's good for the Cubs

For Suzuki, this is particularly important, since his early spike in production coincided with a much-higher-than-normal HR/FB rate. For his career, that number is 14.3 percent, and the mid-high 20s mark he was pulling in April is not realistic. But in May and June that number stabilized, and after some early issues, he’s managed to impact the game beyond hitting dingers — racking up quality contact, extra-base hits and playing really shockingly good defense in the Cubs outfield (albeit not every day).

(Sidebar number two: defensive stats are some of the most finicky we have. If you just hit up Baseball Savant, they would have you believe that he has gone from among the worst defensive right fielders in the sport in 2024 to not playing defense in 2025 to now being a top-quartile defensive right fielder in 2026. Defensive Runs Saved mostly agrees, but he’s also not playing enough to qualify in Ultimate Zone Rating. And no one ever shows there work with this stuff. Cubs fans seem convinced, so we’ll just go with that.)

So Suzuki is not an All-Star, shucks. But I’d bet on him making a real impact for the Cubs in the second half given his offensive stats are much less fluky than they were before. He probably has a few more home runs in him too, and, again, he walked off Mason Miller. He’s earned some flowers for that at the very least. 

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