Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The AL Wild Card standings show tight competition with no clear buyers or sellers emerging yet.
- The NL Wild Card race features extreme tightness, with most teams within three games of a playoff spot.
- Key decisions loom for teams like the Cardinals, Nationals, and Cubs as the trade deadline approaches.
We're deep enough into the MLB regular season to care about the standings, but not deep enough for teams to know exactly what they're going to do at the trade deadline. Part of the reason for that confusion has to do with the incredibly competitive Wild Card standings at the moment. In fact, "competitive" might be an understatement, as hardly anyone feels truly out of it right now.
The fact that there are three Wild Card teams for each league means that even if a team is completely out of a division race, making the playoffs is far easier than it's ever been. Once you get there, who knows what'll happen next? A look at the updated MLB Wild Card standings show just how competitive things are right now, and why that could make for very few clear buyers and sellers this summer.
AL Wild Card standings
The New York Yankees, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners lead their respective divisions entering play on Wednesday, but not by much. The Yankees have the largest lead of that trio, and they're only up by 2.5 games over the Rays. The White Sox are technically tied with the Guardians, but are in first place because they've played two fewer games. And somehow, the Wild Card standings might be even tighter.
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
Tampa Bay Rays | 41-29 | +6.5 |
Cleveland Guardians | 39-34 | +3.0 |
Athletics | 36-37 | - |
Toronto Blue Jays | 35-38 | 1.0 |
Texas Rangers | 35-38 | 1.0 |
Minnesota Twins | 35-40 | 2.0 |
Baltimore Orioles | 34-40 | 2.5 |
Houston Astros | 34-41 | 3.0 |
Boston Red Sox | 29-41 | 5.5 |
Detroit Tigers | 30-43 | 6.0 |
Los Angeles Angels | 30-44 | 6.5 |
Kansas City Royals | 29-45 | 7.5 |
The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians look like clear playoff teams, but the rest of the Wild Card standings are incredibly jumbled. What really sticks out is that, beyond the Rays and Guardians, none of the teams in the Wild Card picture are even at .500.
This could lead to a whole host of weird scenarios. Would a team like the Minnesota Twins, that probably expected to be clear-cut sellers at the deadline, be buyers — or at least stand pat — when they're five games under .500 but only 2.0 games back of a playoff spot? Would a team like the Tigers, 13 games under .500 but only 6.0 games back, try to ride it out with Tarik Skubal instead of trading him?
The only clear sellers right now appear to be the Los Angeles Angels and the Kansas City Royals — and based on how the Angels usually operate, I'm not even sure they'll sell off that much. These standings are bound to change, but it'll be interesting to see how teams from the Athletics to the Tigers, assuming they're all hanging around the Wild Card race but not actually playing that well, approach the deadline.
NL Wild Card standings
The National League standings are a bit different, particularly at the top. The Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers all lead their respective divisions, and by fairly wide margins. In fact, the smallest lead of those three teams, held by the Milwaukee Brewers (4.5 games), is larger than the leads the three AL division leaders have combined. The Wild Card standings are extremely jumbled, though.
Team | Record | GB |
|---|---|---|
St. Louis Cardinals | 40-31 | +2.5 |
Philadelphia Phillies | 40-33 | +1.5 |
Washington Nationals | 39-35 | - |
San Diego Padres | 37-35 | 1.0 |
Chicago Cubs | 38-36 | 1.0 |
Arizona Diamondbacks | 37-36 | 1.5 |
Pittsburgh Pirates | 37-37 | 2.0 |
Miami Marlins | 36-38 | 3.0 |
Cincinnati Reds | 35-37 | 3.0 |
New York Mets | 32-41 | 6.5 |
San Francisco Giants | 29-43 | 9.0 |
Colorado Rockies | 28-46 | 11.0 |
As is the case in the AL, the standings are incredibly tight, lacking clear sellers. The Colorado Rockies and the San Francisco Giants will be sellers, but who else will join them? The New York Mets might, but considering Francisco Lindor's looming return from the IL and all they have invested into this season, they won't wave the white flag quietly. Beyond those three teams, everyone is within 3.0 games of a Wild Card spot.
What's particularly interesting about these standings is that two of the three teams currently occupying spots, the St. Louis Cardinals and the Washington Nationals, might not even buy at the trade deadline. I'd argue that the only sure-fire buyer of those in the Wild Card mix is the Philadelphia Phillies.
This sets up a bunch of intriguing possibilities. Will a team like the Cardinals or Nationals choose to stick to their plans of building for the future and sell off rentals, or will they try to make the playoffs? Will a team like the Chicago Cubs, that has not played well for over a month but ais clearly in win-now mode, make a push or trade a rental like Seiya Suzuki? It'll be fascinating to see the answers to these questions unfold in the matter of the next month or two.
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