Stats say that Payton Tolle could be the next big thing for the Boston Red Sox

There’s a whole lot to like with Payton Tolle, on and off the mound. The hulking, lovable, 72-ounce steak-consuming left-hander has been one of the lone bright spots in an otherwise-horrendous Boston Red Sox campaign — he’s got a superhuman fastball, ridiculous arm extension and, again, ate a 72-ounce steak in Amarillo Texas to prove he could do it. So how much should you truly believe? 

Before I Statcast metric my face off, you need to understand something about Tolle that goes above everything else: he's a larger than life persona that you will root for 30 seconds after meeting him. From the aforementioned steak, to his PowerPoint presentation on the United States of America to his openness about losing his mom and pitching on Mother's Day, this is a guy you just can't not love. He's also hyper-competitive, audibly grunts like a tennis player when he delivers a pitch and is the guy every team would want in their clubhouse. I'm a huge fan. Now, onto the baseball player.

Payton Tolle has progressed well as a starter in 2026

Determining the investment thesis for Payton Tolle gives me an opportunity to shout out the wonderful people at SoxProspects.com, who just graduated Tolle from their boards after a long stretch atop the Boston Red Sox system. Here is an except from Tolle’s prospect page, a good starting point for this seminar:

“Could get to the majors in 2025 using just his fastball, but secondary stuff needs continued development to reach his potential. Outlier fastball gives him a high floor, especially combined with his frame and ability to mix in four secondary pitches.”

Tolle did in fact get to the majors in 2025 using only his fastball, and gosh dang what a fastball it was: 70 grade (scout speak for insanely good) as a prospect with major spikes in velocity once he got with the Red Sox pitching coaches. But lots of guys can throw 100 mph these days; what made Tolle special was his seven-and-a-half feet of arm extension, meaning hitters have seven-and-a-half-feet shaved off their reaction time. That’s a lot in the grand scheme of an 100 mph projectile coming at you with unknown spin.

That “secondary stuff,” though is still a work in progress. A short rookie season in 2025 had Tolle throwing his four seamer on nearly 65 percent of his pitches, not necessarily a competitive pitch mix for a starter. He would also throw a cutter, slider, changeup and curveball last year, none of which were particularly great. But 2026 has seen positive developments in the mix; namely, the reduction in four seam-rate down to under 50 percent and the elimination of the slider completely in favor of his new best friend: the sinker. 

Tolle's secondary arsenal has developed, but still needs work

The Red Sox pitching coaches love sinkers, evidenced by Aroldis Chapman showing up and promptly hearing “hey, you know that 99 mph sinker? Throw that.” Tolle introducing a sinker is part of why he can avoid pumping four seamers until the cows come home — forcing hitters to guess between the two is one of the hottest things going in Major League pitching right now among those who throw heat. The differences can be so small yet so deviously effective. It’s like artistic minimalism, but with fastballs. (has anyone covered baseballs in paint and thrown them at a wall to make a mural? Write that down)

A lot of this is purely theoretical. In terms of run value, Tolle is still only really making money with the four seamer, though he began the year in Worcester and thus hasn’t quite pitched the innings with these new secondaries to get a proper look. But the reduction in fastball rate, as well as a tick down in velocity, is encouraging and has allowed Tolle to command it better. He’s getting more out of a pitch by throwing it less and throwing it slower, and thus leaning in to his pound-the-zone approach. Tolle is a strikeout pitcher through and through, and he’s not going to get cute: top 20 in the Majors in pitches thrown in the strike zone, and that’s where he’s trying to put them.

Can Tolle continue avoiding loud contact?

My favorite stat for Tolle, though, is his barrel and hard-hit rates, both super good and above 80th percentile among qualifying pitchers. I am a major believer that avoiding loud contact is a predictive pitcher metric, and a quick gander over at the ZiPS prediction model proves this is where our money is to be made. The model and its 2027 and 2028 future versions (grain of salt) are buying lots of things about this Tolle campaign: the walk rate, the strikeout numbers, the low opposing batting average. But what ZiPS is not buying is the lack of home runs. Tolle is way at the bottom of Red Sox pitchers in projected home runs per nine innings for the next three seasons.

A gander over at real life tells the opposite story. Tolle has given up just three home runs this season, by far the lowest among Red Sox starters and lower still than four relievers. ZiPS can cry foul, but the contact quality numbers back it up: Tolle’s new pitch mix has consistently avoided loud, damaging contact, and if it can continue? We can send his projection to the stratosphere.

Much of that, again, was theoretical. Tolle does not have the Major League service time to warrant a full workup of his life and career through the tube machines from the movie Brazil … yet. But there is a lot to like and a lot to buy into. If you’re looking for a new pitcher to buy some stock in, this might be where it’s at.

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