The Buster Posey failure presents a frightening lesson for MLB teams

Speaking candidly, it’s strange that in an analytics-driven era, we saw the San Francisco Giants choose sentimentality over rationality in hiring Buster Posey as their president of baseball operations.

Never mind that Posey hadn’t even served on a coaching staff, let alone done enough to run a front office. The Giants gambled that one of the most iconic players in franchise history could turn them back into perennial postseason contenders, just as they were throughout his playing career.

Instead, the Giants missed the playoffs last year, and they’re at risk of a 100-loss season. Rafael Devers has been a bust, Willy Adames hasn’t met expectations, and the Giants are an ugly, boring watch most nights. There’s also the Tony Vitiello hire, a move that appears destined to end with his dismissal. 

Although not all of the blame falls on Posey, it has quickly become evident that this is a move the Giants must regret. 

The Buster Posey hire proves that nostalgia and bias are incredibly dangerous

Posey had no legitimate front office experience when the Giants put the ball in his hands. Ownership seemingly believed that, given Posey’s resume and intelligence, he’d naturally thrive as a lead baseball executive. What could go wrong?

And, to his credit, the Adames and Devers acquisitions at least made some sense. Adames was a power-hitting shortstop who’d averaged 3.4 bWAR over his previous six seasons. That number is brought slightly down by the shortened 2020 campaign, though he had 1.8 bWAR in 54 games. That’s over 5 bWAR in a full season. Not too bad!

Devers, meanwhile, worked through a position change and a dreadful start to the 2025 season. By the time the Giants acquired him, his .401 on-base percentage and .905 OPS were well above his career averages.  

Had either move worked as planned, then Posey would get a slight pass. By no means would it have excused the Giants’ atrocious season. It just means he’d be at, say, a D instead of a D- or F. 

To be clear, we’re not saying that the Giants needed to hire the stereotypical Ivy League grad who hadn’t played baseball beyond middle school and spent his free time coding. 

But, objectively, you must ask yourself why the Giants felt Posey deserved to have total control. He did Bob Melvin wrong by picking up his 2027 option, then firing him months later to hire Vitello. 

Should the Giants fire Buster Posey?

If Posey leaves the Giants before 2029, the odds favor him doing so of his own accord. Firing him months before he appears on the Hall of Fame ballot — or even after he’s elected — could make for an incredibly awkward scenario next summer. 

That would mean Posey holds his position until at least September 2027. The Giants then run the risk of dismissing Posey with his induction so fresh. Imagine Posey entering the Hall of Fame in late July only to be fired in mid-September?

Baseball is a business, but it’s also one often driven by emotions. Even if Posey is professional enough to accept being fired, that doesn’t change the fact that it would be an objectively uncomfortable situation. 

(And, yes, Posey deserves to be a first-ballot Hall of Famer. He’s a three-time champion with an MVP award, has analytics working in his favor, and had an elite peak. Don’t read too much into him only having 1,500 hits.)

The Giants opted for a feel-good story, and the end result is risking a last-place finish behind the Rockies. That alone would be tougher to stomach than any defeat Posey suffered in his 12 big-league seasons. 

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