The Dodgers can't afford Dave Roberts' stubborn faith in Edwin Diaz

The Edwin Diaz problem found a new rock bottom for the Los Angeles Dodgers on Friday night. Called on to protect a 4-2 lead in the ninth inning of a potential NLCS preview against the Milwaukee Brewers, the three-time All-Star melted down yet again, allowing four straight one-out hits before Dave Roberts finally pulled him with the game now tied and the go-ahead runner on second.

That runner eventually came around to score, and just like that, the Brewers had a potentially season-defining win — while the Dodgers were faced with a fresh and increasingly furious round of questions about their ostensible closer. But Roberts still didn't seem to have any answers; despite three blown saves in Diaz's last four appearances, L.A.'s manager told reporters after the game that he doesn't plan on removing the righty from high-leverage spots.

"Give me another option," Roberts said, per ESPN's Alden Gonzalez. "I can't just say, 'change to low leverage'. I have to have another option."

Sticking with a player of Diaz's track record because you have faith in the underlying skills would be one thing. But defending him with what amounts to a shrug just smacks of stubbornness and exasperation — two things that could ultimately wind up costing the Dodgers their bid for a World Series three-peat.

The Dodgers have other high-leverage options while Edwin Diaz struggles

On the one hand, you can sort of understand where Roberts is coming from. The bullpen has been a bugaboo for the Dodgers all year, and the problem has only gotten worse — Los Angeles ranks in the bottom third in both reliever ERA and FIP since June 1. Diaz is far and away the most proven entity back there, a big part of the reason why the Dodgers signed him away from the New York Mets this past winter.

But this is looking like far more than just the sort of rough patch you expect from even the most pedigreed relievers now and then. Diaz's fastball velocity is significantly down this year, and his whiff and strikeout rates have plummeted as a result. He can't miss bats like he's accustomed to, and as a result he's left to try and nibble, resulting in his highest walk rate in a full season since 2017. It's always possible that he's still knocking the rust off after missing significant time due to an elbow injury, but it's also possible that said injury has left him diminished; and right now, this is simply not the profile of a guy you want closing games.

And it's disingenuous for Roberts to argue that he simply has no other choice but to keep running Diaz out for the ninth inning. Tanner Scott — who knows a thing or two about falling apart in your first year with the Dodgers — is in the midst of a bounce-back year, with a 2.25 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 48 innings. He's got the sort of stuff you want from your closer, and while he's better against lefties than righties, he's been pretty effective regardless of platoon split this season.

Granted, Scott is a lefty, and managers typically want to make sure their best southpaws are available to face certain matchups regardless of what inning it is. But the Dodgers can afford to save Scott for their highest-leverage spots while still having quality left-handers to call on like Alex Vesia and Jack Dreyer. This is not a particularly deep bullpen, but it's also not one that keeps forcing Roberts' hand.

Dodgers don't have luxury of giving up ground in NL standings

Of course, it's the job of a manager to balance the short term with the long term. Diaz still has a higher ceiling than just about anybody in the Dodgers bullpen, and L.A. almost certainly needs him at or near his best to get where they want to go. In that light, you can understand why Roberts would give him a pretty long leash, and think long and hard before dinging his confidence with a demotion.

At a certain point, though, you need to actually win games — even if you're the Dodgers. Los Angeles is at no risk of losing the NL West, but if the season ended today, they would miss out on a first-round bye. That would mean a trip to the Wild Card round, which means not only an extra chance of being upset but also a lack of days off to get your pitching staff fresh and in order.

These are still the Dodgers we're talking about; they didn't have a bye last year either, and not having home-field advantage didn't stop them from running roughshod over the Phillies and Brewers to get back to the World Series. But if you keep playing with fire, eventually you're going to get burned no matter how much money you spend in free agency. This might be the most vulnerable this team has ever looked, and pretty soon Roberts is going to need to realize that he can't treat the regular season entirely like a tune-up.

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