Those hoping to avoid seeing Tropicana Field again this postseason got an excellent treat on Thursday afternoon, as the Cleveland Guardians took a 2-1 ALCS lead over the Tampa Bay Rays.
In what marked the earliest LCS start time in nearly 40 years, the Guardians capitalized on their home field advantage. Inclement weather pushed the first pitch to 1 p.m. ET, and a packed Progressive Field crowd watched rising star Gavin Williams record nine strikeouts over five innings.
Holding a 2-1 lead in a best-of-seven series sounds good, and Guardians fans should be cautiously optimistic about what lies ahead. As for the Rays, we suggest they try to ignore over a century’s worth of data.
History works against the Tampa Bay Rays following their ALCS Game 3 loss
According to Major League Baseball’s Sarah Langs, there have been 102 previous instances of a best-of-seven series being tied after two games. Roughly 70 percent of the Game 3 winners went on to win that series.
Some notable World Series examples include last year’s Dodgers and the 2008 Phillies. In terms of the LCS, the 2003 Yankees won Game 3 — that was the famous Don Zimmer vs. Pedro Martínez fight — and eventually took the series in seven.
Things are about to get complicated, so work with us. The League Championship Series and World Series both operate on a 2-3-2 format, though that hasn’t always been the case. Major League Baseball first implemented the system for the World Series in 1925, and that’s technically been the case for 98 of the last 100 Fall Classics.
The exceptions were the 1943 and 1945 World Series, which had a 3-4 format for World War II-related travel reasons. Major League Baseball stuck with 2-3-2 in 1944 because the Cardinals and Browns (now the Orioles) both shared a stadium: Sportsman’s Park in St. Louis.
Then there’s the 2020 World Series, which took place at a neutral site amid the pandemic. So although the Dodgers and Rays played that year’s Fall Classic on the 2-3-2 system, it was essentially irrelevant. But context matters for this conversation.
Brace yourselves for more math. We promise the data overload is nearly finished. This year marks the 50th time a team has taken a 2-1 series lead after a Game 3 home win in a best-of-seven series. Of the previous 49 times it happened, 30 of the 2-1 series leaders finished the job. That includes the aforementioned 2025 Dodgers and 2008 Phillies, but not the 2003 Yankees; they won Game 3 of the ALCS at Fenway Park.
Ironically, neither the 1944 Cardinals nor the 2020 Dodgers qualify here. The Cardinals won three straight after falling behind 2-1, and the Dodgers were the designated away team for Game 3. Got it? Alright. Now we can get back to the good stuff.
What does history mean for the Tampa Bay Rays’ World Series odds?
Our sarcasm about all of the math aside, the historical data — especially for those who won Game 3 at home — is both intriguing and telling. Just because the Rays lost on Thursday doesn’t mean their title quest is destined to fall short.
We’re not betting against the Guardians, though, not with how talented and reliable their starting pitching has been lately. Rays All-Star third baseman Junior Caminero still doesn’t have a playoff home run, and his .666 OPS leads all qualified Rays hitters. You cannot win games if your lineup isn’t producing an OPS near the .719 league average.
The Rays obviously still have time to prove us wrong, and the data isn’t entirely working against them. But based on what we watched Thursday afternoon, it’s hard to feel overly optimistic about Kevin Cash’s crew winning three of the next four.
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