The secret to Rafael Devers' turnaround is ridiculously simple

To say Rafael Devers did not have a good start to the season would be to say that yellow is a color or that clouds are in the sky. Dramatic stances were taken, names were called — I may or may not have referred to him as (maybe) “the worst player in baseball.” But I was wrong; Devers has completely turned it around, and the reason why may shock you.

Rafael Devers has completely turned his season around

The biggest issue for Devers that I can track, and one that hasn’t necessarily been resolved, is declining bat speed year over year; it stands to reason that was part of the Boston Red Sox’s reasoning to trade him and his mammoth contract. But a decrease in bat speed shouldn’t mean you completely lose the ability to hit, and Devers wasn’t slugging at all. There was some home run luck there, but he also just wasn’t creating quality contact. That’s all changed completely.

Since May 9 (my last Devers piece) his xwOBA has spiked nearly 100 points, from .279 to .368. xwOBA measures contact quality independent of result, and that is a positively nuclear shift in expected impact. For reference, .279 would be 142nd out of 149 qualifiers; .368 would be 23rd.

What that tells me is that Devers is not just regressing to the mean or getting lucky: He’s actually made a mechanical change that has drastically improved his hitting ability. And while that could be a number of physical changes with the San Francisco Giants hitting coaches, in the cage or with his approach, there’s one tangible result that jumps out — or rather, one that smashes the window with a fire extinguisher and leaps out like a superhero. Devers is swinging way less.

That chart is almost too clean to be real. And while (say it with me now) correlation does not equal causation, there is definitely reason to believe Devers’ lower swing rate is emblematic of a much more effective approach. He’s gotten more comfortable waiting for pitches to smoke, and he’s being much choosier about what he’s trying to hit. There’s almost certainly more to it than that, but operation: swing less has definitely been good for Raffy. 

Devers' lower swing rate isn't a silver bullet, but it has been good for his approach

You may ask: Is it generally true that players who swing less produce more offensively? And that’s … a complex question to answer. If you look at the below charts, you’ll find there is perhaps a correlation between higher swing rate and offensive output, but nothing here screams at you. What we really need to chart is the change in swing rate, which is very difficult to fairly distribute given that players who change their swing rate a lot are probably struggling. In any case, there definitely is not evidence that lower swing rate = offense.

It also stands to reason that Devers’ struggles early in the season were mental as well as physical, and while he may not be the full version of the player they’re paying ever again, he’s definitely better than what he was showing early in the season. Swinging less could just mean Raffy is feeling better timing up the pitches he actually wants, and he’s been an All-Star level hitter for years and is not of an age where sharp physical decline would make much sense. Decision-making appears to have saved Devers’ season, even if the Giants are still well and truly cooked. 

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