Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- A struggling AL team has suddenly turned its season around with an unexpected road sweep.
- Their improved playoff positioning makes a key decision about a star pitcher's future far more complex.
- The team still faces long odds but has bought itself enough time to potentially change that narrative before the deadline.
It felt like a series sweep at the hands of the Chicago White Sox marked the official end of the Detroit Tigers' season. Sure, it was only May, but the Tigers fell to an AL-worst 22-38 on the year and an unfathomably bad 4-20 record without Tarik Skubal. Even with the back-to-back Cy Young winner nearing a return, it felt like Detroit, a team that had only had a .500 record with Skubal before his injury, had dug a hole too deep to dig out of.
Perhaps that isn't the case. The Tigers swept the Tampa Bay Rays this week, the team with the AL's best record which just happened to be 21-6 at Tropicana Field this season. That alone won't turn this season around, but Detroit is starting to show some fight — and with Skubal due back within the next couple of weeks, the idea of trading him only becomes more complicated.
Tigers are closer to a playoff spot than you might think
The Tigers kept Skubal, a player they're unlikely to re-sign after the year in free agency anyway, because they hoped to make one more run at a World Series with him. Well, even with a 25-38 record, this team is in a better position to do so than you might think.
Their AL Central hopes are minuscule, with Detroit trailing the first-place Cleveland Guardians by 10.5 games. But they are only 5.5 games back of the third Wild Card spot in the American League. Now, they'd have to jump a ton of teams to get there, but thanks to an extremely lackluster AL, the Tigers are in technically in the playoff picture. It might not have been the race they envisioned, but a 5.5-game deficit in June is one that's not difficult whatsoever to overcome.
Given their proximity to the playoffs, trading Skubal, even with an abysmal record, is far from a guaranteed outcome, at least right now.
Tigers still have work to do to justify keeping Tarik Skubal past trade deadline
Might the Tigers keep Skubal if the deadline were today? Perhaps. Again, a 5.5-game deficit, especially with Skubal's return from the IL imminent, is not massive at this point in the season by any means. Would this be a wise choice? That's a different question.
Even with their playoff deficit being manageable, Detroit has just a 16.4 percent chance to make the playoffs according to FanGraphs. This makes sense, given the number of teams they'd have to jump in the Wild Card race and how the Tigers have played most of the year. Those odds put the Tigers in a tougher spot than a 5.5-game deficit might otherwise indicate.
Rank | Team | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|
1 | New York Yankees | 97.5% |
2 | Seattle Mariners | 86.1% |
3 | Tampa Bay Rays | 83.1% |
4 | Cleveland Guardians | 77.7% |
5 | Texas Rangers | 44.4% |
6 | Toronto Blue Jays | 42.7% |
7 | Athletics | 37.6% |
8 | Baltimore Orioles | 33.2% |
9 | Boston Red Sox | 22.7% |
10 | Minnesota Twins | 18.3% |
11 | Chicago White Sox | 16.8% |
12 | Detroit Tigers | 16.4% |
13 | Houston Astros | 15.7% |
14 | Kansas City Royals | 7.1% |
15 | Los Angeles Angels | 0.5% |
Even after sweeping the Rays in a ballpark few teams have had any semblance of success in this season, Detroit has the fourth-worst odds to make the postseason in the AL. Granted, those odds have increased fairly substantially, as they were at just 9.8 percent entering the Rays series, but it's still not a pretty picture
The Tigers will have to change that to keep Skubal in Detroit past the deadline. The only conceivable way to pass on what should be a massive return in a Skubal trade would be if the Tigers have a legitimate shot at going on a deep postseason run. Just 16 percent odds to even make the playoffs is not good enough in that regard.
If the Tigers can keep winning games and increasing their playoff odds, perhaps they can talk themselves into keeping Skubal. As things stand now, though, they still have work to do. Still, their sweep in Tampa Bay at least opens the door to the team going on a run strong enough to keep Skubal, and that's something Tigers fans did not expect at all entering last week. After how bleak things looked just days ago, the idea of a Skubal trade being complicated is a good thing.
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