Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Pirates' ace Paul Skenes is posting numbers that look ordinary compared to his historic first two seasons.
- That has created opposing views of what's wrong with the Pirates sensation.
- Pittsburgh's coaching staff and Skenes see it differently than opposing hitters.
The same question keeps getting asked. “What's wrong with Paul Skenes?” baseball people keep asking, knowing I’m based in the Pittsburgh area.
It’s an understandable question, as the Pittsburgh Pirates ace has a 6-7 record with a 3.10 ERA in 17 starts so far in the 2026 campaign, which is a fine season for most pitchers. However, Skenes isn’t like most pitchers. He was the National League Rookie of the Year in 2024 and the NL Cy Young Award winner last season.
Skenes also carried a 1.96 ERA through 55 career starts, coming into this season. While maintaining an ERA that low throughout a career of any significant length would be impossible for a starting pitcher, it does make a 3.10 look bad.
Pirates, Paul Skenes not concerned
The Pirates insist things are fine with Skenes. They say he is healthy and it isn’t a matter of losing focus because his extensive physical and mental preparation for each start hasn’t changed.
“It just speaks to the talent he’s got and expectations that are a little bit elevated for him,” Pirates manager Don Kelly said. “And he set that bar with what he did the first two years. And there’s nobody who expects more out of Paul Skenes than Paul Skenes expects out of himself. And when we talk about his ‘down’ starts, they’re still pretty good.”
Yet the Pirates have lost each of his last eight starts. The last reigning Cy Young winner to have that long a dry spell was Jim Perry, whose Minnesota Twins lost 10 straight games with him on the mound in 1971.
Skenes has an 0-5 record and 4.40 ERA during those eight starts since his last win on May 12 against the Colorado Rockies. Skenes was 6-2 with a 1.98 ERA in his first nine starts this season, even including a disastrous opening day outing in which he got just two outs and allowed five runs in a loss to the Mets in New York.
“I think it's been a little bit odd,” Skenes said of his season. ”But in terms of the controllables. I've been happy with how I've been throwing and am just going to continue to get better.”
Indeed, Skenes’ underlying statistics suggest that he is pitching better than his record and ERA indicate. The 24-year-old right-hander has a 2.75 FIP, 0.968 WHIP, and a 5.70 strikeout/walk ratio.
“Got to remember what's real,” Skenes said. “Same thing I've been saying for eight starts now.”
That is part of a change in the way people inside baseball value a pitcher’s win totals. It began in 2010, when the Seattle Mariners’ Felix Hernandez won the American League Cy Young Award with a 13-12 record, and reached its crescendo last season, when Skenes was 10-10 and became the first pitcher without a winning record to be recognized as the best in his league.
The Pirates hope to reach the postseason for the first time since 2015. While they entered Sunday with a 41-42 record and 10 ½ games behind the first-place Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, the Pirates were just three games out of the last wild card.
The Pirates, though, can’t help but wonder what their record would be if they could win at least some of Skenes’ starts.
“I think it does get frustrating for Paul, for the team, for everybody, for me, when Paul has a start and we don't win,” Kelly said. “We need to find a way to win.”
Opposing hitters also say Skenes is different this year.
Opponents see a slightly different Paul Skenes
Yet there are reasons to be concerned about Skenes, both from numerical and anecdotal standpoints.
Foremost is his average fastball velocity of 97.0 mph this season. That number still ranks in the top 87th percentile of major-league pitchers, yet it is down from 98.2 mph last season and 98.8 mph in 2024.
“Don’t get me wrong, he’s still one of the nastiest pitchers in the league, and you don’t want to face him,” said a veteran player, who requested anonymity so he could speak candidly on the subject. “But he doesn’t have that same invincibility that he had. You feel like you at least have a chance against him when you step into the box. His pitches aren’t as nasty, and it seems like he’s out of sync sometimes and doesn’t have good rhythm on the mound.”
Armchair doctors try to make a case that Skenes is hiding an injury. However, that is not the case, according to sources with close knowledge of the matter.
Though Skenes denies it, he could be suffering residual effects of pitching for the United States in the World Baseball Classic in March. Though he pitched just 8 1/3 innings in two outings, they came in a much higher-stress environment than a spring training game, forcing him to pitch at a higher intensity level.
“His pitches aren’t as crisp,” said another opposing hitter. “That’s often a sign of fatigue.”
The Pirates, though, say they have no regrets about Skenes participating in the WBC or his overall performance this season.
“That simply meant his preparation for spring training was a little bit different than it had been in the two years prior, and I think it would be natural and understandable if, as we get into the season, there's an adjustment from that,” Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said. “He's so conscientious and has such a good plan; he's so good at what he does that he's going to figure that out.”
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