This year's MLB free agent class does not feature a bevy of superstars capable of changing the fortunes of hte teams that sign them. Instead, buyers will be forced to choose between flawed players like Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Luis Arraez. Chisholm appears to be the better positioned veteran to cash in on the open market.
That conclusion might come to a surprise to fans familiar with the narrative of Chisholm's struggles for the New York Yankees this year. He set unreasonable expectations with his pre-season declaration that he wanted to slug fifty home runs and steal 50 bases. The 28-year-old has managed to swipe 40 bags on the year, but he's only managed 19 homers. That, combined with his high strikeout rate has weighed his WAR down to a modest 1.5 in 134 games.
In sharp contrast, Arraez has done a fair amount of work to raise his stock this year. He settled on a one-year deal with the Giants after striking out on the free agent market last year before moving to the Phillies via a mid-season trade.
The book on Arraez coming into the year was that he was a weak defender who posted a high batting average without hitting for any sort of power. That sort of "empty calorie" batting depressed his market in free agency. To his credit, he's put in solid work to improve his defense and that's paid concrete dividends on the field. He's not blossomed into a gold glover, but he can not credibly claim to be a slightly above-average defensive infielder.
Offensively, he's still hitting for a high average, and he's posted a healthy OBP of .350. He's still not a power hitte,r but you add everything up and Arraez has posted a WAR of 3.2 on the year. That's significantly better than the season Chisholm has put together in New York.
Why will Jazz Chisholm make more than Luis Arraez in free agency?
Chisholm has clearly had the inferior season, but most observers still believe he possesses the potential to become one of the top second baseman in the game. His power potential and exceptional speed gives him a chance to post MVP level offensive numbers if he can ever put everything together. There are real questions over whether or not his focus will ever allow him to achieve such lofty heights, but it's easy to dream about him becoming a star.
The path to stardom for Arraez is much more difficult to envision. He's likely maximized what he can get from his physical tools. Ironically, the gains he's recognized this season might work against him in free agency. Scouts will wonder if that's the last leap he can make in his career as he enters his 30s.
In the end, this free agency choices comes down to a preference of potential over certainty. The dearth of available stars in this year's free agent class will make teams more likely to roll the dice on Chisholm based on his upside. Arraez will still enjoy a number of suitors, but his lack of star potential will see his contract come in under Chisholm's.
Add us as a preferred source on Google