The NBA overhauled its draft lottery this past May in an attempt to snuff out the scourge of tanking. Instead of giving the highest odds for the No. 1 pick to the teams with the worst records, the new lottery actually punishes the three worst teams in the league by giving them worse odds than the other non-play-in teams.
That's only the start of how the lottery system changed, though.
Previously, the lottery drew only the first four picks in the draft, which meant teams could fall no more than four spots from where they finished in the standings. In other words, the team with the NBA's worst record had a floor of the No. 5 pick, the second-worst record could fall no lower than No. 6, etc. Tanking wasn't just about maximizing a team's odds for the No. 1 pick; it was about securing a higher floor in the lottery as well.
That's no longer the case under the new system, which will draw all 16 picks. Now, the teams with the three worst records can fall as low as No. 12 overall, while the other 13 teams can drop as far as to No. 16. Teams that are genuinely bad — which there seems to be no shortage of early this season! — may now have a far more difficult time digging their way back to relevance via the draft.
Additionally, teams now can't have a top-five pick in three straight drafts and can't win the No. 1 pick two years in a row. That's particularly pertinent for the Utah Jazz, who landed the No. 5 pick in 2025 (Ace Bailey) and the No. 2 pick in 2026 (Darryn Peterson), and the Washington Wizards, who won the No. 1 overall pick this past spring (AJ Dybantsa). That rule has a trickle-down effect on the rest of the new lottery, too.
Without factoring in those pick restrictions, here's a look at the new baseline odds for the draft lottery.
The standard NBA draft lottery odds
Teams | No. 1 pick | Top-3 pick | Top-5 pick | Top-10 pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Three worst records | 5.4% | 16% | 28% | 61% |
Other non-play-in teams | 8.1% | 24% | 39% | 73% |
9th and 10th play-in seeds | 5.4% | 16% | 28% | 61% |
Losers of 7 vs. 8 play-in game | 2.7% | 8% | 15% | 35% |
However, those pick restrictions are wreaking havoc on the current lottery standings since the Jazz are off to a dismal 1-11 start, and the Wizards aren't much better at 4-8. Their odds get redistributed among the rest of the teams in the lottery, which enhances each of their chances to land either the No. 1 overall pick or a top-five pick.
With those pick restrictions factored in, here's a look at the current draft lottery odds heading into Thursday, Nov. 12.
This year's current NBA draft lottery odds
Team | No. 1 pick | Top-3 pick | Top-5 pick | Top-10 pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah Jazz | N/A | N/A | N/A | 60.5% |
Milwaukee Bucks | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 60.5% |
Sacramento Kings | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 60.5% |
Chicago Bulls | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Los Angeles Clippers | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Brooklyn Nets | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Washington Wizards | N/A | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
New Orleans Pelicans | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Indiana Pacers | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Phoenix Suns | 9.4% | 25.3% | 41.4% | 73.3% |
Charlotte Hornets | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 58.5% |
Orlando Magic | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 58.5% |
Denver Nuggets | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 58.5% |
Memphis Grizzlies | 6.2% | 17.4% | 29.7% | 58.5% |
Miami Heat | 3.1% | 9% | 15.9% | 35.2% |
Dallas Mavericks | 3.1% | 9% | 15.9% | 35.2% |
Granted, a number of these teams have already traded away control of their 2027 first-round pick. Here's a roundup of where these picks could be headed:
- The New Orleans Pelicans get the better of their own first-round pick or the Milwaukee Bucks' first-round pick. The Atlanta Hawks receive the worst of the two.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder have the right to swap first-round picks with the Los Angeles Clippers. The NBA might as well lock that one in right now.
- The Houston Rockets have the right to swap first-round picks with the Brooklyn Nets. Another lock.
- The Memphis Grizzlies will receive the best of the Utah Jazz, Minnesota Timberwolves or Cleveland Cavaliers' first-round pick. However, the highest Utah's pick can be is No. 6 overall. (Utah currently has a 33.9% chance of landing the No. 6 pick.)
- The Rockets will receive the Phoenix Suns' fully unprotected first-round pick. There's a non-zero chance they walk out of the lottery with two top-five picks (if not better).
- The Thunder will receive the Denver Nuggets' first-round pick as long as it falls outside of the top five.
- The Charlotte Hornets will receive the Dallas Mavericks' first-round pick as long as it falls out of the top two. If it lands in the top two, the Mavericks will instead convey Miami's 2028 second-round pick.
- The Hornets will receive the Miami Heat's first-round pick as long as it falls out of the top 14. If it lands in the top 14, the Hornets will instead receive the Heat's fully unprotected 2028 first-round pick.
Memphis, Houston and Charlotte each have the potential to land multiple top-five picks based on the current lottery standings, while OKC could snag a pair of top-10 picks courtesy of the Clippers and Nuggets. There's even a nightmare scenario where Houston could receive both of the top two picks. (It only took about five spins on Tankathon to get that result.)
Teams that don't control their first-round pick have little incentive to avoid the "relegation zone," which means they could still embark upon trade-deadline teardowns with an eye on replenishing their future draft coffers. Teams that do have their 2027 first-round pick should be trying everything in their power to finish in the 4-10 range, which would maximize their lottery odds.
We'll see whether this new system does cause fewer teams to throw in the towel, which should in turn make games in March and April more competitive. But given the disparity in odds between the different groups of teams in the lottery, it wouldn't be surprising if tanking continues in some fashion.
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