The New York Knicks are the defending champs but they're not the preseason favorites — trailing both the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs, with the Philadelphia 76ers looming. But that's not actually all that rare. The Knicks' title was exciting but also, somewhat miraculous. The Thunder and Spurs were better on paper last season and have only gotten stronger this offseason. The 76ers added Jaylen Brown and LeBron James. Meanwhile the Knicks are mostly counting on continuity and good vibes.
But the position they're in is actually not all that unique. Over the past eight seasons, the defending champions have only entered the following season with the best preseason odds four times. Can you remember them all?
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Defending NBA champions who were underdogs
Besides the Knicks, these are the last four NBA champions who didn't go into the next season as overwhelming champs.
Toronto Raptors, 2019-20: Toronto's 2019 titles was one of the most unexpected in recent memory. They had the fifth-best preseason odds (+1850) in the season they won and came back the next year with a ring and the 13th-best preseason odds at +5500. The biggest reason for that swing is Kawhi Leonard departing in free agency for the Los Angeles Clippers. He was the key piece of the Raptors title-winning roster and his arrivel in LA, along with Paul George, catapulted the Clippers to No. 1 in the 2019-20 preseason odds. We all know how this story ended.
Milwaukee Bucks, 2021-22: The Bucks surged to the 2021 title from the No. 3 seed behind an extraordinary postseason from Giannis Antetokounmpo. However, their title run clearly had a mental asterisk next to it for a lot of people, perhaps because they didn't have to beat the best team in either conference to get there. Thanks to some upsets, they just had to beat the Heat (No. 6), Nets (No. 2), Hawks (No. 5) and Suns (No. 2). This was also seen as a wonky season, starting late and running just 72 games because of the Covid pandemic. With no dramatic roster changes over the offseason they were leapfrogged by the Lakers and Nets in preseason odds the following year.
Golden State Warriors, 2022-23: The Warriors overwhelmed the Boston Celtics in the 2022 NBA Finals but found themselves trailing them in the preseason championship odds the following year. This one was, presumably, about age. Neither team made dramatic roster changes over the intermediate offseason but the Warriors were loaded with veterans presumably on the downswing; the Celtics were young, up-and-comers who could have come back better than ever.
Denver Nuggets, 2023-24: The Nuggets and Celtics entered the 2023-24 season with identical +450 championship odds, even though Denver was the defending champs and Boston had lost in seven games to the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. While they had the same preseason championship odds, the Celtics got the benefit of the doubt with a higher preseason over/under — 54.5 to 52.5. It turns out the oddsmakers actually got this one right. The Celtics went 64-18 and went on to beat the Mavericks in the NBA Finals.
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