Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The NBA Play-In Tournament has become a fixture and set up several underdogs who eventually pulled off dramatic first-round upsets.
- This season, teams like the Hornets, 76ers, Clippers and more all have the potential to push the top seeds.
- The inner circle contenders could all face stiff challenges in the first round, depending on who comes out of the Play-In and at what seed.
The NBA Play-In Tournament is turning seven years old this year! Now that its reached the age of reason, perhaps it will start taking itself more seriously. We can’t ride the glory of the 2023 Miami Heat run forever.
In the last three seasons, Play-In teams that made it to the actual playoffs (the 7 and 8 seeds) have had a modest showing; two 7 seeds have advanced past the first round and one 8 seed — the 2023 Heat — made the NBA Finals. That is surely the Platonic ideal of any aspiring Play-In threat.
Here’s the blueprint for low-seed glory: first, teams with stars that either haven’t been healthy or have been underachieving are real menaces to 1 or 2 seeds in the first round. Next, veteran teams with a lot of playoff experience going up against young teams that had great regular-seasons (see 2023 Los Angeles Lakers, 2025 Golden State Warriors). We have several teams that could pull this off this season, and while it is theoretically possible that these eight Play-In teams could change, it’s pretty likely this is our group. So who is the scariest?
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Let’s say you’re … oh, I don’t know, a long-time, very public fan of a certain Eastern Conference 2 seed. And your current options for a first round opponent are: the Orlando Magic, who just gave up a 31-0 run to the Toronto Raptors in a game, the largest scoring run in NBA history, or the Philadelphia 76ers — a team that has had a sad season with suspensions and injuries but is locked, loaded and healthy for Round One. Not interested. Nope. Do not want.
The 76ers have a really super-duper scary team on paper, one that simply will not hold up physically over four playoff rounds but could totally catch an unsuspecting first round opponent flat footed. Tyrese Maxey is one of the league’s premier guards, and if Joel Embiid can just play six healthy games with a recently-unsuspended/rested Paul George kicking around and all the supporting players like VJ Edgecome wreaking havoc? This team could be a menace.
Whomever the 76ers wind up playing will be box office. If it’s the Boston Celtics, it will be Philadelphia’s seventh attempt to beat Boston since 1982, the last time they won a series against them. If it’s the New York Knicks, it will be a rehash of the spectacular 2-7 matchup from 2024 that was the beginning of the current Knicks hype era. If they lose the first game but win the second, they will play the Detroit Pistons, which would not be as fun but would calm my Celtics fan self down quite a bit.
2. Charlotte Hornets
In the short but illustrious history of the Play-In, Charlotte has played in the 9-10 game twice and lost twice. They have not played a playoff game since 2016, when Al Jefferson and Kemba Walker failed to stop Goran Dragic in Game 7 of their first-round series against the Miami Heat. But I’m not sure if everyone heard: Charlotte is low-key back.
I witnessed this team annihilate the Celtics in person on March 4, but also watched the Celtics annihilate the Hornets earlier this week. The takeaway: this team is very hot-and-cold, with a super high ceiling but tons of variance and a heavy reliance on young players with zero playoff or big game experience whatsoever. LaMelo Ball has had a nice resurgence as a winning-ish player, and the Brandon Miller/Kon Knueppel future seems very promising. This team plays hard and is very well coached, but they also have major holes throughout the roster and will have trouble dealing with the wing scoring and size of the top teams in a full series. You are, however, going to notice very quickly that the Eastern Conference Play-In is far more intriguing because of how much more beatable Boston/New York/Detroit seem relative to San Antonio and Oklahoma City. Matchups are everything.
3. Miami Heat
The legacy of this Heat season is going to be Bam Adebayo scoring 83 points in an official National Basketball Association basketball game. But it’s possible they could Heat Culture™ their way to some witchcraft first-round chicanery once again. I don’t think that’s likely … but this team has the signature run in Play-In history. You have to respect Heat Culture™.
This team has no bench. In fact, they have no closing five either. You know what? They basically have 3.5 players on their roster that I trust to do anything at all in a big spot: Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Norman Powell and perhaps Andrew Wiggins. Beyond that, it’s straight vibes and Pelle Larsson minutes all the way down. I don’t even know if I’d pick this team to get out of the Play-In over my top two let alone actually win a first-round series. But I just can’t be out here saying the West’s top two is going to lose in the first round. That said …
4. Phoenix Suns
Let’s say, for the moment, that the Phoenix Suns win the 7-8 game against the Los Angeles Clippers, as I think they will. They will face the San Antonio Spurs in the first round, and I do not believe they can possibly win that series. They have absolutely no answer for Victor Wembanyama’s size or for the combined athleticism of the Spurs’ guards. But if we were to concoct a reason that could win, we would probably land on Dillon Brooks antagonizing Wembanyama mixed with … like, a 70 point Devin Booker game, maybe some huge Ryan Dunn defensive minutes and some major Royce O’Neale corner threes. Sounds good to everyone? Ok break.
5. Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers’ roster is completely gutted, they have no bigs remotely capable of hanging with Wembanyama/the entire Thunder roster, no, I don’t want to talk about Benedict Mathurin’s ceiling as a first option, there is no rational reason to predict they will win a first round series. Unless you still have some stock in the “when healthy, Kawhi Leonard is the best player in the league” market which I’m pretty sure crashed due to accounting fraud three years ago. It would take some capital L Lunacy for this team to win a first-round series, but they are my final team that I wouldn’t spit out my water in shock if it happened.
6. Golden State Warriors
I’m pretty sure this team has been trying to tank for the last month, but the rest of the Western Conference has been so tanking proficient that they are 36-39 with a hysterical 11-game cushion for the 10 seed. I have no idea if Stephen Curry is going to come back this season, I imagine he probably won’t, but the singular possibility that he could is why they are sixth instead of eighth. We will be seated for the Portland Trail Blazers/Golden State Warriors 9-10 match, in which Guy Santos and Toumani Camara go band for band.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
There are things to like on this team but there simply are not enough of them to like to predict they will beat the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first round of the NBA playoffs. Currently, Blazer nation is locked into whether or not they should give Scoot Henderson a contract extension, a situation I sincerely wish everyone in Portland luck with trying to navigate responsibly.
8. Orlando Magic
If you want to know the current state of this basketball team, just go to Orlando Magic Reddit and give it a quick scroll. This team is on a downward spiral that cannot be measured by regular instruments, having lost 7 of their last 8 (the lone win is to the Sacramento Kings who are terrible), and just lost to the Toronto Raptors by 52. If this team wins a first-round series, I know nothing about basketball.