The biggest headline this week was the abrupt retirement of Russell Westbrook -- one of the faces of the league over the last two decades. Given that Westbrook is sure to have his name enshrined in the Basketball Hall of Fame someday, this got us thinking: which current NBA players would be a lock for the Hall of Fame if their careers ended today?
Locks for the Basketball Hall of Fame
There are some that are super duper obvious, but for the sake of keeping this exercise empirical and objective, let's take a look at Basketball Reference's Hall of Fame Probability metric. (This metric includes championships, peak Win Shares, All-Star selections and credit for finishing seasons in the top-10 in basic stats like points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks).
According to this metric, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Stephen Curry are all 100 percent locks to make it to Springfield. For reference, Westbrook is a basic lock at 99.93 percent. Chris Paul is also a 100 percent lock, but he's technically already retired as well, so we can't count him in all of this.
From there, we have some basic locks. These are players who don't have a 100 percent chance of making it to the Hall of Fame, but Basketball Reference still has them over 95 percent. This group includes Nikola Jokić (99.8 percent), Anthony Davis (99.8 percent), Giannis Antetokounmpo (99.8 percent), Damian Lillard (99.8 percent), Paul George (97.8 percent), Kyrie Irving (97.4 percent), and Kawhi Leonard (97.4 percent).
So, based on those probabilities, we have eleven surefire Hall of Famers currently in our ranks.
Players who still have something to prove
The list of guys with less than a 95 percent chance but higher than a 50 percent chance includes Karl-Anthony Towns (86.9 percent), Shai-Gilgeous Alexander (82.7 percent), Draymond Green (76.8 percent), Jimmy Butler III (75.6 percent), Klay Thompson (73 percent), Luka Dončić (68.2 percent), Kevin Love (67.5 percent), Joel Embiid (66.2 percent), Jayson Tatum (59.6 percent), and Donovan Mitchell (58.8 percent).
Thompson and Love are pretty much done solidifying their legacies. Maybe they can give you one more iconic playoff performance or something, but their best days are clearly behind them. The same is probably true for Green and Butler. However, if the Golden State Warriors are actually serious about winning in the final years of Curry's career, they still have what it takes to be high impact players in a postseason setting.
Towns, Alexander, Dončić, Tatum (so long as he's fully behind his torn Achilles), and Mitchell are in the prime of their careers and will continue to boost their Hall of Fame probability. Injuries have derailed Embiid's career, but his current situation (as the starting center on an apparent superteam) gives him a golden opportunity to cement his legacy with an NBA Championship, if his body can hold up for an entire season.
For those wondering, despite all that he's done in his career, fan-favorite, DeMar DeRozan, still has less than a 50 percent chance of making it to the Hall of Fame (48.3 percent). He's got a lot of work left to do, but, unfortunately, not a lot of time left to do it (this year will be his age-37 season).
Young players with a lot left to prove
To qualify for this model, a player must have played at least 400 games in the NBA. This means that Victor Wembanyama, Tyrese Haliburton, Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Cade Cunningham, and many of the other future faces of the league don't have the longevity required yet to even be qualified for this exercise. However, if they can keep up their current pace, something tells me that they will have their name in Springfield someday.
One last note. Anthony Edwards has played 442 career games. So, he does have enough experience to have a Hall of Fame Probability. However, according to this metric, he still has a long way to go, as he currently has a 6.4 percent of making it to the Hall of Fame if he retired today. Fortunately, as long as he stays healthy (*knocks wood aggressively*), Edwards still has plenty of time to increase his chances.
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