If you are into the over/under market in NBA Futures, my absolute favorite play is the over on the Utah Jazz's win total. According to BetMGM, the Jazz's over/under win total is currently set at 35.5. That puts them right around the 2025-26 Golden State Warriors, who had their season ravaged by injuries and barely made it to the play-in tournament as a result.
The idea that the Jazz will be lucky to sneak into the play-in tournament in 2026-27 seems like a gross underestimation of their roster. To me, the Jazz are really good, and they are ready to leave a dent in the Western Conference right now.
Why the Utah Jazz could be really good in 2026-27
One thing you have to keep in mind is that the Jazz have been purposefully trying to lose over the last four seasons (as one does when they are rebuilding). Twice, they even tore apart what was a really good team in order to increase their chances at a high pick.
Whenever Lauri Markkanen has been healthy and the team has been trying to be competitive, the Jazz have always been respectable. He projects to be healthy heading into next season (*knocks wood excessively*), and the Jazz took a huge swing last Winter by trading for a suitable frontcourt mate in two-time All-Star Jaren Jackson Jr.
The Markkanen/Jackson four/five combination projects to be one of the most dynamic in basketball. Markkanen is a giant (7'1), who touts skills akin to a guard (a career 37% 3-point shooter). Jackson is pretty tall (6'10) and positionally skilled (averaging 7.8 drives per game) himself, but he's also one of the better rim protectors in the association (winning Defensive Player of the Year in 2022-23).
They traded away the third big, who was supposed to unlock their jumbo lineups (Walker Kessler), in order to acquire even more draft capital. I wasn't happy with this decision, but they did well to sign Jaxson Hayes in free agency. He may not be quite the player Kessler is, but he offers paint protection and rim runs at an afford rate.
Keyonte George was well on his way to being a finalist for the Most Improved Player of the Year before a hamstring injury prematurely ended his season. After an up-and-down first two seasons, George solidified himself as the point guard of the future in Utah, averaging 23.6 PPG and 6.1 APG on 60.9% true shooting.
Ace Bailey was promising as a rookie, and in a healthier ecosystem, he'll be able to focus on his strengths (shooting, size, and athleticism) in a controlled space. Many people thought Darryn Peterson should have been the first pick in the 2026 NBA Draft, or at least that he was the most talented player in the class had it not been for looming injury concerns. He'll round out the starting five of him, Bailey, George, Markkanen, and Jackson. A five-man unit that has a ton of shooting, youth, size, and athleticism.
The Jazz's bench is by no means elite, but they have some nice potential contributors in Isaiah Collier, Josh Okogie, Jusuf Nurkic, Kyle Filipowski, Svi Mykhailiuk, and Josh Green.
This is all without mentioning how awesome of a basketball mind head coach Will Hardy is. How do we know this? Well, the easiest way to explain it is this: how many coaches do you know had four start losing seasons and still have no signs of being in the hot seat? The Jazz knew that they were intentionally trying to lose, and that Hardy was always the right man for the job.
I'm not sure that the Jazz are going to give any serious contenders a run for their money (although they match up weirdly well with the San Antonio Spurs). Heck, I'm not even sure that they can win a playoff series.
But this Jazz team is far better than a mid-30 win team. In fact, I'd venture to say that their rebuild is complete, and they are ready to win right now.
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