Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Baker Mayfield's contract talks with the Buccaneers have ended, setting him up for free agency after this season.
- Several teams could benefit from his veteran presence, especially if their current quarterbacks falter or get injured.
- The decision to pursue Mayfield will hinge on each team's playoff chances and their long-term plans at quarterback.
Baker Mayfield is going to be the most motivated man in the NFL this season. Entering the final year of his contract, he and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have reportedly decided to end extension negotiations and the 31-year-old will test free agency.
It's unclear why talks fell through but Mayfield will be playing on a $39.975 salary cap hit before testing free agency next spring. Of course, Tampa Bay could decide to utilize a projected $50 million franchise tag on him but that seems unlikely.
The next step could depend on how well the Buccaneers are doing by November. Should the team be in the playoff hunt, Mayfield can bank on hitting the market and trying to get paid by a team that will be desperate for veteran passing. But should Tampa Bay be down and out -- at no primary fault of Mayfield's own play -- he could be prime trade bait for a contending team that loses a starting QB at the worst possible time. Let's focus on the franchises that could qualify for either scenario and why Mayfield would be a good fit.
Pittsburgh Steelers
We know Aaron Rodgers is done after the 2026-27 campaign. There will be no third encore for the Pittsburgh Steelers which means the franchise will have to pivot to the free agent market and the draft to find its next passer. Unless Mayfield has a career year (or close to it) in 2026, he's probably looking at a Kirk Cousins-esque kind of market as a transitionary veteran which is exactly what Pittsburgh needs.
Mason Rudolph shouldn't be on the team beyond this season, Will Howard can't seem to jump him in the depth chart and Drew Allar is a pipe dream developmental project. Should Rodgers suffer a serious injury akin to his first year with the New York Jets, the Steelers cannot rely on any of the three to carry them the rest of the season. Mayfield would be worth a swap if Pittsburgh is in the playoff race at the time of a hypothetical Rodgers injury. In the case the team waits until the spring, Mayfield can be a solid starter while whatever rookie passer the team selects (if it even selects one) develops.
Indianapolis Colts
If there's a team that could suffer a recurring case of the injury bug, it's the Indianapolis Colts. After losing Daniel Jones last year and not being able to turn to Anthony Richardson to save the day, a 43-year-old Philip Rivers was unfortunately the answer. This year, Jones is healthy (but for how long?) and so is Richardson (but he wants out), though if a repeat of 2025 were to occur, there's no Rivers to fall back on. Mayfield could be a break-glass option and Tampa Bay may be willing to accept Richardson and a decent draft haul as compensation.
The more likely option is Jones can't recapture his magic from the first half of the previous campaign and Richardson departs in the spring if no deal occurs. Indianapolis would have to decide whether to hit the reset button at the position and Mayfield, should he not regress, would be worth the investment to battle Jones for the starting job.
Minnesota Vikings
It's a very similar situation in Minneapolis. Kyler Murray is on a one-year "prove it" deal while the Minnesota Vikings buy time to figure out what to do with potential first-round draft bust J.J. McCarthy. There is a real possibility both passers start games this year and fail to impress. The team likely wouldn't welcome Murray back and head coach Kevin O'Connell would probably give McCarthy his final second chance in 2027.
Though O'Connell wouldn't do so without another challenger to insulate his job (if he survives the immediate offseason). That's where Mayfield would come in. Considering he hasn't shown any doubtful signs in play over the last couple years, Mayfield would get at least a two-year deal so that if he beats out McCarthy, the team has a transition QB while it determines how to flip the former Michigan product and plan whether to draft a future starter.
New York Jets
Mayfield will probably have better options, hence the above, but he's a guy who loves a challenge and there's no way the New York Jets don't explore a way to get him should he become available one way or another. Geno Smith was a head scratching acquisition to begin with and turning to Cade Klubnik, Brady Cook or Bailey Zappe to step into the starter's role in 2027 and beyond would be insane. The Jets will probably finish high enough in the draft order to select a passing talent like Oregon's Dante Moore or another offensive weapon like Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith.
Should the team go the latter direction, it's going to need a solid quarterback to actually capitalize on the solid talent it gathers. Veteran wideout Garrett Wilson will lose patience eventually, especially with Geno Smith under center. Mayfield could excite him and convince the fanbase the team isn't just going through the motions again, staving off a full on revolt. Though it wouldn't be surprising whatsoever if Mayfield rules out New York entirely before even considering offers.
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