Winning in Week 1 is cool and all, but it doesn't necessarily mean anything. I still remember my excitement in 2013 when the Houston Texans won a Week 1 shootout against the then-San Diego Chargers. I was like "whoa, this team is going to be good," and then, before I knew it, they were finishing up a 2-14 campaign. In the end, a Week 1 win is just that...a win in Week 1. It's not some harbinger of change for a bad football team.
That's as true today as it was back then, and for four teams that started 1-0 this season, things aren't actually setting up for smooth sailing. One team you won't find below? The New York Giants, whose Week 1 win over the Cowboys suggests that the John Harbaugh era is already off to a strong start. But you will find a certain team that shares a certain stadium with the Giants.
New York Jets
I'm of two minds about the New York Jets beating the Tennessee Titans in Week 1. On one hand, it's the Titans, so the win can't be that impressive when you consider the opponent. On the other hand, Jets quarterback Geno Smith looked really good, so maybe there's something there?
Ehh, let's stick with the former for now. Yes, Smith was 11th in the league this week in expected points added per play, but he was also facing a Titans defense full of holes. We need to see more out of Smith before we start to think this really means much. While his three-season stint as the Seahawks starting quarterback featured Smith playing high-level football, he was one of the league's worst quarterbacks in 2025, and the Seahawks won a Super Bowl as soon as he left, which definitely makes one wonder if his play was being artificially enhanced by playing in the Seahawks system.
The fact of the matter is, the Jets are still a team that went 3-14 last season. Improvements have happened, especially at the most important position, but this is still a roster that's full of holes and has a quarterback at the helm who led the NFL in interceptions in 2026. Things might be looking up, but they aren't looking that far up.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The defending AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers face a very tough road to repeating, and Sunday's 20-13 win over the Atlanta Falcons — a team that was on its third-string quarterback, Cooper Rush — should not be taken as evidence that the team is on track to capture the division title again.
The big reason for that isn't even necessarily about the Steelers, a team that should be aggressively "fine" in 2026, but, rather, it's about the Ravens and Bengals looking so good in their Week 1 victories. Both teams looked nearly impossible to stop on offense, something that's going to put a lot of pressure on the Steelers on both sides of the ball. The offense will have to keep up with these other offenses, while the defense will be forced to stop those offenses.
Maybe the Pittsburgh defense can do that, but can a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers do it still? He was a solid 11th in the league this week in average intended air yards, but last season he was last in that stat among all full-time starting quarterbacks, which makes Week 1 feel like a fluke. In 2025, the Steelers won this division because bad things kept befalling the Bengals and Ravens, and it's going to take more bad things befalling them in 2026 if the Steelers want to find a way to repeat. If things don't go wrong for one or both of those teams, the Steelers will be lucky to finish 9-8.
Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders are 1-0 because they faced the Miami Dolphins in Week 1. It's mostly as simple as that.
One of the big issues is that while the Raiders won 27-13, it wasn't really because of quarterback Kirk Cousins, who finished the game with a negative expected points added per play. He threw three touchdowns, but he was also picked off twice, and two of those touchdowns went to running back Ashton Jeanty, who was the real star of the game. Cousins was, overall, solid enough, but he didn't inspire enough confidence in his ability to play this well against a defense that's actually good.
(I'm kind of at a loss for words here when it comes to talking about this game. It was just, like, the game I paid the least attention to in Week 1. Cousins taking on Malik Willis is something that should be happening on a Thursday in Week 11, not in the first game of the season. I guess there is this to think about, though: Fernando Mendoza will get a chance at some point, and that probably lowers the ceiling and floor of this team a bit because he doesn't have the experience of Cousins, who can better handle a situation like the one in Vegas where he's throwing to a mostly anonymous crew of wide receivers.)
Arizona Cardinals
The Arizona Cardinals might not be as bad as people expected them to be. The evidence for that is strong: Jacoby Brissett just led them to a fairly comfortable win against the Los Angeles Chargers, a loss that has to feel bad for Chargers fans.
This offense has weapons. Brissett is a solid quarterback. Trey McBride might be the league's best tight end. Jeremiyah Love and Tyler Allgeier make for an intriguing backfield tandem, and the wide receiver room has talent as well. Arizona is going to score some points on people.
But the defense isn't going to play like it did against the Chargers on a weekly basis, and the team as a whole just doesn't have what it takes to battle in a tough AFC West. Week 1 gave us a reason to believe that the Cardinals won't end up with the No. 1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft, but it just kind of moved the discussion surrounding that from "this will be a three-win team that picks first overall" to "this will be a five-win team that picks third overall."
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