I am not going to overreact to one week.
I am not going to overreact to one week.
I am not going to overreact to one week.
So if I said it three times, that means it’s true, right? There is an inherent flaw built into this process when we have so little football to diagnose and so much we want to believe about who these teams are and where they are going. So I am trying to be prudent here.
This list is not totally flipped around yet because September is what August used to be — a time to sort things out and experiment and see what things look like on the field. Some of these matchups are quite difficult to sort out, as both teams likely have a playoff future. So I am treading lightly here.
1. Seattle Seahawks
- Last Rank: 2
- Result: def. Patriots, 13-10
There was nothing not to like about their Week 1 outing except for an injury to Sam Darnold. And even that appears to be short term — a hyperextension. Perhaps very short term. Even without their starting safeties, they toyed with Pats MVP runner-up quarterback Drake Make again.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
- Last Rank: 3
- Result: Still to Play on Monday Night Football vs. Broncos
This is the bump you get when you haven’t played yet and the Rams do what the Rams did. People I talk to around the league believe Patrick Mahomes has a Tom Brady-ish chip on his shoulder and is as determined as that legend was at using any adversity as extreme motivation. Want to see how they move the ball on the ground. How long will it take Spags’s D to click?
3. Denver Broncos
- Last Rank: 4
- Result: Still to Play on Monday Night Football vs. Chiefs
I actually believe they will beat Kansas City on Monday. So then why aren’t they above them? Because my goal here is to have the way these are stacked look as close to how the final draft order/waiver order is at the end of the season. Denver’s defense is a carrying trait to potential greatness and Sean Payton not calling plays will be a good thing I believe.
4. Los Angeles Rams
- Last Rank: 1
- Result: lost to 49ers, 27-7
It was Australia. They probably got there later than they would want if they had to do it over again. But surgery for Myles Garrett at this time is a red flag. And the early-season schedule remains brutal. There is too much coaching talent and roster talent to start freaking out about this operation, but it’s going to be tough the next month or so.
5. Cincinnati Bengals
- Last Rank: 7
- Result: def. Buccaneers, 33-27
So Sexy Dexy is a pretty big deal, eh? All those pressures and sacks and takeaways? And a Bengals team potentially off to a fast start for once? Really? That could be something. Don’t worry I bet Ja’Marr Chase has a monster week. That’s a game Cincy loses the last few years.
6. Chicago Bears
- Last Rank: 6
- Result: def. Panthers, 59-37
The defense definitely still gives me all kinds of pause and it’s why maybe I got too excited about Ben Johnson’s group over the summer. They’d better make an impact trade. But you don’t see a lot of 60-burgers being hung on NFL teams. We loved Caleb Williams throwing over 4,000 yards this season and 4,500 yards.
7. Philadelphia Eagles
- Last Rank: 5
- Result: def. Commanders, 24-22
I am definitely going to have to see this offense take off and look confident and dynamic before I buy it. Evaluators I trust around the league are not high on Washington, especially the defense, and the Eagles came a wild Jalen Hurts scamper and some weird Dan Quinn decisions from possibly losing that game.
8. Baltimore Ravens
- Last Rank: 11
- Result: def. Colts, 41-23
They are finally joining the modern NFL and running 60% 11 personnel … but with Zay Flowers and Ja’Kobi Lane, that might be tough for a while. Rookie play caller Declan Doyle had a dynamic debut and Jesse Minter’s defense created pressure and takeaways sorely missed.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
- Last Rank: 9
- Result: def. Browns, 34-10
The Browns aren’t really an NFL operation right now so I have to tread lightly with this outcome. I wouldn’t be shocked if this team is in the AFC Championship game, but real tests are to come. They really didn’t even have to play football in the second half against Cleveland.
10. Buffalo Bills
- Last Rank: 13
- Result: def. Texans, 36-31
Josh Allen with the flair for the dramatic. I got this game totally wrong and thought it would be a defensive struggle. Shocked they did that to the Texans defense. Week 1 or not. However, my concerns about the Bills have a playoff-level defense and the loss of Sean McDermott are something you have to watch closely.
11. Houston Texans
- Last Rank: 8
- Result: lost to Bills, 36-31
I have to ding them for the loss. That’s a game where this defense usually puts them away. But the fact they were able to move the ball and the fact that they might have someone who can close out drives for them on the ground and hit paydirt, in David Montgomery, will bode well longer.
12. Dallas Cowboys
- Last Rank: 10
- Result: lost to Giants, 28-20
This was a tough did in Week 1, going to New York as we remember 9/11 and doing so in John Harbaugh’s debut. Jaxson Dart’s legs gave this defense some issues, but I do buy that it is going to be far better than the last two years. I never feel like the Cowboys are better than some people think, but I do now.
13. Minnesota Vikings
- Last Rank: 17
- Result: def. Packers, 39-22
What a gutsy comeback despite losing Kyler Murray so early in the game and his Vikings tenure. Kevin O’Conell and Brian Flores can coach. But can Murray stay healthy? And we know Carson Wentz hits the wall quickly.
14. Detroit Lions
- Last Rank: 15
- Result: def. Saints, 31-30
Do I love the way that game played out? Heck no. Is Dan Campbell damn lucky? Yeah. And the defense is not that good and they are going to have to get back to Ben Johnson-level production. But they found a way to win a game they probably would have lost a year ago.
15. San Francisco 49ers
- Last Rank: 21
- Result: def. Rams, 27-7
I still have serious big-picture reservations about this team. It's an old roster in a lot of spots and all this travel will be tough and they aren’t done making looong trips yet. They played with passion and purpose, and as long as Fred Warner and Nick Bosa are fully healthy, the D is much better … But how long will that be?
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
- Last Rank: 20
- Result: def. Falcons, 20-13
The defense has a chance to be special. They live and die with the big play, and they always have a willing closer too. We know exactly what they are and it’s what they’ve been and they win the Steelers have to win ... and they tend to do 10 times a year.
17. New England Patriots
- Last Rank: 18
- Result: lost to Seahawks, 13-10
Drake Maye is going to end up playing a lot of hero ball. They got more pass rush than I expected in Week 1, but personnel guys don’t think that’s sustainable. The AJ Brown injury is kind of crushing for them. All of a sudden they could really use Kayshon Boutte!
18. New Orleans Saints
- Last Rank: 19
- Result: lost to Lions, 31-30
The second-half adjustments were bonkers. The offense went nuts and the quarterback went off. To make that a game despite not being able to run the ball much most of the day, and with it looking like Jahmyr Gibbs was going to go off on them, showed some gumption. Â
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Last Rank: 16
- Result: lost to Bengals, 33-27
They better find a way to get the ball downfield. Like a big-boy pass game. Yeah, the Bengals invested in their defense, but there is no injury situation with Baker Mayfield and they probably just overpaid him with his contract extension, and they need to get something going vertically again, somehow.
20. Green Bay Packers
- Last Rank: 12
- Result: lost to Vikings, 39-22
What the hell was that? They had that game in hand and they had the Vikings with a backup quarterback, and they defaulted to old habits. This coach with a lead like that gives me pause. Having no Micah Parsons left a real mark. That could be the difference in making the playoffs and missing out. Yuck.
21. New York Giants
- Last Rank: 24
- Result: def. Cowboys, 28-20
They are a professional grade operation with Jonn Harbaugh in charge. They will bleed the clock and shorten the game with Greg Roman involved in their offense and Dart’s legs are always an option. They have a bright young defensive coordinator. That’s progress.
22. Los Angeles Chargers
- Last Rank: 14
- Result: lost to Cardinals, 26-14
Nothing was more troubling than this team finding a way to get outclassed by Arizona. Losing defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and the interior offensive line injuries might prove to be too much. They will get the timing down in the passing game, I figure, but I also know that dynamic between Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel could get funky fast if this is an indication of things to come.
23. Washington Commanders
- Last Rank: 26
- Result: lost to Eagles, 24-22
They showed up and they played hard. But Jayden Daniels did not look comfortable in that offense at all until they had to get desperate late. Might need more option looks and designed runs. I think it's going to be a long season, but they gave the Eagles a game.
24. Arizona Cardinals
- Last Rank: 31
- Result: def. Chargers, 26-14
I strongly suspect this is their high-water mark. And I probably should have bumped them more. They were better than the Chargers, that was no fluke. Jacoby Brissett picked up right where he left off and might be quite a trade chip.
25. Carolina Panthers
- Last Rank: 23
- Result: lost to Bears, 59-37
The Bears offense is special, in a lot of ways. I get it. I buy it … But this was the kind of beating that can leave a mark. Three guys go for 65 or more on the ground against you and two go over 100, and questions will be asked. Worried about the preseason injuries. Hoping Jonathan Brooks can get it going in the run game.
26. Indianapolis Colts
- Last Rank: 22
- Result: lost to Ravens, 41-23
DeForest Buckner is going to need time coming back from neck surgery. Daniel Jones did not look right coming back from Achilles surgery. The Ravens rolled up 500 yards and that was with 86 penalty yards. Could have been worse. They need to lean into running the heck out of the ball.
27. Las Vegas Raiders
- Last Rank: 25
- Result: def. Dolphins, 27-13
Losing Brock Bowers is a blow and I'm not sure he is going to be back quite as quickly as some are suggesting. They played one of the worst teams in the NFL with a really rote roster and they won and Kirk Cousins will help them score more points than they’re used to.
28. New York Jets
- Last Rank: 27
- Result: def. Titans, 23-10
The defense has probably already hit rock bottom and is starting to rise back up some after being gutted. Being above .500 is a big deal for them, even in Week 2. I still have a lot of questions here, really in all three phases.
29. Atlanta Falcons Â
- Last Rank: 28
- Result: lost to Steelers, 20-13
They better hope Michael Penix is good. I used to think that was quite possible, but that was several injuries ago. How much longer is Tua on the roster? What a disaster signing that was. Cooper Rush, man? That's where we are in Week 1?
30. Tennessee Titans
- Last Rank: 30
- Result: lost to Jets, 23-10
I have real questions about how well this staff ends up functioning together. Eleven first downs and 195 net yards against the Jets? Come on, man. Brian Daboll didn’t bring Josh Allen with him and I’ll never buy Robert Saleh as the kind of guy who can turn around a franchise this screwed and ownership this bad.
31. Miami Dolphins
- Last Rank: 31
- Result: lost to Raiders, 27-13
Just not sure there is enough talent there to even be able to really figure out that much about the quarterback. The collection of pass catchers is kind of hard to stomach. It’s beyond bleak. They couldn’t put up 300 yards on the Raiders.
32. Cleveland Browns
- Last Rank: 32
- Result: lost to Jaguars, 34-10
This whole thing with the quarterback is a disgrace and ugly sideshow. But this ownership group excels in unforced errors and creating their own drama. On the bright side, maybe the Rams aren’t a super team and the draft picks they get back for Garrett will be higher than you think.
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