NFL Stat of the Week: Drew Lock gave the Seahawks a reason to breathe

Welcome to the Stat of the Week, where we use advanced metrics to uncover the trends, performances and strategic shifts shaping the NFL season.

Six plays into their first drive of the 2026 regular season, the Seattle Seahawks got a rather unpleasant surprise when Sam Darnold suffered a hip injury as he was taken to the turf by Patriots (and former Seahawks) edge-rusher Dre’Mont Jones. That brought backup quarterback Drew Lock into the game, with every intention of keeping things competitive. 

Given Lock’s history, that may have raised doubts in some minds. The second-round pick of the Denver Broncos in 2019, Lock was always known to be an athletic quarterback with a dynamite arm. But throughout his NFL career, he’s been prone to overestimating that arm, while perhaps not spending as much time as needed on the nuances of the QB position.

It’s why Lock was included in the Seahawks-Broncos Russell Wilson trade on March 16, 2022, and perhaps why the Seahawks did not retain him before the 2024 season, when he became a free agent. Lock signed a one-year, $5 million contract with the New York Giants, and then came back to Seattle before the 2025 season on a two-year, $5 million contract, which gives you a peek into the NFL’s perception of his value. 

Last season for the Seahawks, Lock completed a grand total of two passes on three attempts for 15 yards, as Sam Darnold firmly established himself as the team’s franchise quarterback. But when Darnold went down, it was Lock or bust. After a couple of rusty moments, Lock, Fleury, and the Seahawks put it together enough for a 13-10 win in their Super Bowl LX rematch.

Drew Lock delivered exactly what Seattle needed

• Drew Lock: 16-for-22 passing, 187 yards, 1 touchdown, 0 interceptions

Lock, for his part, completed 16 of 22 passes for 187 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 113.3. Not earth-shattering stuff, but Lock didn’t have to be prime John Elway when Patriots quarterback Drake Maye was throwing three fourth-quarter interceptions to Seattle’s “Dark Side” defense. Lock just needed to be smart and stay out of trouble, which he did for the most part.

Lock underthrew Cooper Kupp on a sail route at the beginning of the second quarter, and he seemed unaware of Jaxon Smith-Njigba open over the middle of the field on a sack with 7:42 left in the first half, but when he hit Smith-Njigba on this 21-yard dig route three plays later… well, that seemed to throw Lock right into the rhythm of the offense.

In the second half, Lock found his efforts further supported by his estimable receivers. There was Kupp’s one-handed, 24-yard catch with 5:36 left in the third quarter, and Smith-Njigba’s 45-yard touchdown with 11:38 left in the game. On that one, Lock hit JSN on a simple four-yard hitch, and the reigning Offensive Player of the Year did the rest by outrunning New England’s entire defense.

“Incredible,” head coach Mike Macdonald said postgame of Lock’s performance. “I should've given him the game ball. He'll get one tomorrow. He'll get something tomorrow. Maybe a belt. But, we love him. We love Drew. Guys love him. He's just a Seahawk through and through, man. We are all incredibly… OK, it's like Drew is in the game. Your heart goes out to Sam. We're praying it's minor, obviously. Had such a great offseason. But Drew has, too. He's played really well. Any time somebody is getting [in the game], unfortunately, it's because someone else isn't able to go. You also want to feel excited for that player. So we had a lot of confidence in Drew coming in playing at a high level.”

NFL Stat of the Week is Drew Lock’s +0.22 EPA per pass

• Drew Lock’s passing plays added an average of 0.22 expected points for Seattle against New England.

The advanced metrics bore it out. Per Sumer Sports, Lock had an EPA per pass of +0.22 in this game. If you prorate that out, it would have ranked second in the NFL in the 2025 season among quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps, behind only the aforementioned Drake Maye, and (believe it or not) Jameis Winston of the New York Giants.

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a metric that measures the value of a single play by calculating how much it increases or decreases a team's expected number of points on that drive, so it's kind of important.

Not that Drew Lock will be the Seahawks' starting quarterback all season — Darnold is expected back sooner than later — but as Seattle prepares for the Arizona Cardinals and Washington Commanders next up on their schedule, there's the knowledge that both of those teams had bottom-third pass defenses last season. Although the Cardinals looked pretty spicy on defense in their 26-14 Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Chargers.

Championship teams aren't just good; they're also lucky at times. And it seems that losing their quarterback in the short term happened to the Seahawks at the best possible time, as odd as that may sound.

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