There is more to an NFL training camp than mere practice time.
You can begin to get a feel for how teams are developing and leaders are emerging and which coaching staffs seem to be embracing the challenges at hand and accepting the pressure and weight of expectations, and which are playing word games and being coy and evasive.
Teams have personalities, and every season is different. Joe Gibbs used to like to talk about how the league changes over 33% every year. "Last year buys you nothing this year" was one of the Hall of Fame coach’s favorite sayings this time of year. It’s true. We know the league can shift entirely in terms of pretenders and contenders from year to year, with some dynastic holdovers the exception to the rule year after year.
It’s also, admittedly, a time of year where recency bias and things we already had begun to assume about teams are easily confirmed — if we are, subconsciously or not — seeking to have those opinions confirmed. We are still very short on data points outside of mounting injury numbers in some places, but in monitoring what’s going on at training camps and what’s being said at training camps there are some beliefs I’m affirming (and, yeah, re-affirming in some cases).
The Jaguars aren't going anywhere
I’ve become a convert on Jaguars head coach Liam Coen because too many people I respect in the league are buying him and his team seems to feed off him in a very real way. Certainly, any number of teams that took a leap forward in 2025 — and Jacksonville embodied that in Coen’s rookie season — will regress, big time, this season.
That’s the nature of the NFL.
We do not believe the Jags will be among them, in no small part because their staff wasn’t picked apart for head coaching jobs elsewhere (yet). And because Coen isn’t shying away from this dynamic. Coen and his team seem to get off on being forgotten about or overlooked and we’re here for it.
And you already know how bullish we are about the Bears and their head coach is a rock star and Ben Johnson proclaiming, “We’re the number one candidate for regression,” is masterclass.
Tucker Kraft is getting paid in Green Bay
The Packers tight end unlocks their downfield passing game on a more consistent basis than any other pass catcher on the roster. He is a true difference-maker and he is making great strides in returning from season-ending surgery and Green Bay has been securing key players to extensions and he’s clearly the next one.
“I think that one gets done by the (start of) season,” one NFL salary negotiator told me.
The way head coach Matt LaFleur has been talking about Kraft at camp is hard to ignore and the team had made it clear they are open to him taking part in joint practices with the Cardinals. “I mean, he’s got to hit all the benchmarks along the way, and if that’s the case, then absolutely,” LaFleur told reporters on Sunday.
Yeah, if I am Kraft I am securing my bag before I get into a situation like that. Every rumbling about this situation is that these sides should be able to make something happen here, and if the recovery is going this well, that should happen sooner rather than later.
Lamar Jackson is all the way back
Declan Doyle just turned 30 and he’s never called a play — he’s also barely older than QB Lamar Jackson. And he will have a learning curve as the Ravens new offensive coordinator for sure.
But the more I talk to people who know him well, like Broncos head coach Sean Payton, who basically created him, the more I believe he is going to be one of the few young assistants to come out of that coaching family tree and become a strong play caller. I believe he can maximize the weapons they have, though I would contend he’s a pass catcher short and if Derrick Henry does hit the wall in his age 32 season, where virtually every NFL RB career expires, then all bets are off.
They are going to utilize under center play action as much as any team in the league and Jackson will flourish with that and a more up-tempo style and he will be firmly back in the MVP conversation.
The Rams will clean up in Week 1
I’m not one to get into a bunch of Week 1 lines in early August. Too much can happen and injuries are inevitable. It can be more tricky than it’s worth. But I also remain thoroughly convinced that Aaron Donald is going to return for the Rams (although not necessarily for this game) and the 49ers have some bad mojo going on.
This had more to do with that. Deebo Samuel is not the kind of back to the future move that makes sense for a roster already looking beat up and injury prone and old. Brandon Aiyuk’s situation is still kind of festering and Kyle Shanahan is facing media inquiries about what exactly took place with that car accident.
I know the 49ers won 12 games last season, but I don’t love the offense or the defense, and I’ll lay the 3.5 points with the Rams now because I have a feeling by the time these teams get to Australia that number is going to be long gone.
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