Predicting a contract extension that works for both Baker Mayfield and the Bucs

Paying elite quarterbacks is an easy decision for any NFL franchise with Super Bowl aspirations. It's much more difficult to calibrate the value of signal-callers who fall just below that high bar. That is precisely why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Baker Mayfield find themselves at their current contract impasse.

Mayfield and his representatives have heaped pressure on the team's front office by insisting they won't engage in contract negotiations after training camp. The veteran quarterback's contract effectively ends after the 2026 season, which raises the opportunity for him to hit unrestricted free agency as the top proven quarterback on the open market.

That's an eventuality the Buccaneers desperately want to avoid, especially considering they likely won't be in a position to draft his replacement high in the 2027 NFL Draft. They would prefer to lock up their 31-year-old starter to a deal that would take him through the rest of his athletic prime. Failing to do so could plunge them into uncertainty at the game's most important position. Then again, recent NFL history is littered with teams who financially chained themselves to a good but not good enough QB and paid the price.

Add it all up, and the negotiations between Tampa Bay and Mayfield will be one of the top NFL storylines to monitor over the next several weeks. Buccaneer fans have every right to be concerned over the future of their favorite team at the quarterback position.

How much do the Buccaneers need to pay Baker Mayfield?

The three-year, $100 million deal Mayfield signed before the 2024 season turned into a bargain for the Buccaneers. Don't expect Mayfield to give them any sort of hometown discount this time around: He and his representatives can talk all they like about how much he wants to stay in Tampa Bay, but they will be committed to getting Mayfield the best contract possible to cement his financial future.

Mayfield is not a top-10 quarterback in the league, but he comfortably profiles in the next tier as an above-average starter. Those types of starters don't hit the open market very often. Mayfield would be in line for a massive contract from a team looking to upgrade their quarterback play if he were to hit free agency.

The Buccaneers understand the economics at play. It will result in them giving Mayfield a bigger contract offer than loads of fans might expect; they may need to give him a top-10 salary if they want to keep him in the fold.

Justin Herbert is currently the 10th-highest paid quarterback in the NFL based on average annual value. He's slated to make over $52 million this year for the Chargers. Expect Mayfield to ask for a contract with that kind of premium to open negotiations with the Buccaneers.

The Buccaneers will try to shave some annual dollars off that offer with a solid amount of guaranteed money. They should be careful not to overcommit to Mayfield in terms of years, though. Not every quarterback can remain productive as long as Tom Brady. Giving Mayfield anything more than a five-year contract would open up too much age-related regression risk for the franchise.

In the end, a five-year contract paying Mayfield up to $225 million in achievable money feels like a good landing spot. The quoted number from his agents might be $250 million, but the devil will be in the details.

That would put Mayfield just outside the top-10 with the potential for him to slide towards the bottom end of the top-20 as more of his peers get big deals. That's a good landing spot for Tampa Bay's roster building while also giving Mayfield a large amount of security. The sticker price might shock some fans but it's well worth the investment to avoid quarterback purgatory.

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