We are exiting the final weekend without NFL football, which means franchises have to start forming lineups for preseason games. That includes which quarterbacks will get the most snaps with the first-team offense, indicating who has the inside track to the starting job for Week 1.
There were five major NFL QB competitions at the start of the offseason, but the last few months have seen significant moments turn into opportunities for each passer vying for the QB1 job. Let's check back in with each of those battles, how they've developed and see who is likely to emerge as the depth chart topper entering the 2026-27 campaign.
Minnesota Vikings
Just as it was when he first signed in Minneapolis, the QB1 job is Kyler Murray's to lose. Head coach Kevin O'Connell is still giving J.J. McCarthy every possible opportunity to beat out Murray, as seen when the 2024 first-round pick was given more snaps with the first team offense at training camp on Friday. Despite that, Murray should still be the first one to touch the field on Aug. 15 when the Minnesota Vikings travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to face the New York Giants.
There's only one factor that seems to be leaving the door open for McCarthy as preseason begins and that's his familiarity with the offensive scheme. However, Murray is the seasoned veteran and has more years of developing good habits (despite his poor recent record in Arizona), so it's only a matter of time until he's fully adjusted to the Vikings' system. Once that happens, if McCarthy hasn't miraculously re-claimed his role, Murray will be locked in as the starter.
Prediction: Murray will be the starter, barring a serious injury
Cleveland Browns
Could Shedeur Sanders really push returning veteran Deshaun Watson onto the bench? Reports from Cleveland Browns training camp indicate the 2025 fifth-round pick surged in his development, but crowning him as the starter is still a very premature determination. Even Sanders told reporters he doesn't want to discuss the battle with Watson, preferring to focus on himself and what he can control.
New head coach Todd Monken wants to give both passers until after the second game of the preseason before he decides who will start in Week 1. That's a common and responsible path to take but it really tips his hand more than he realizes. Watson hasn't played meaningful football in multiple seasons and despite Sanders' rookie shortcomings, the 24-year-old is more familiar with the current system. The fact that Monken wants as much time as possible to evaluate both of them (sorry, Dillon Gabriel) means Watson and his expiring behemoth contract have a better chance of reclaiming the starter job.
Prediction: Watson gets the nod because the Browns won't let $41 million sit on the bench
Atlanta Falcons
This QB battle is going nowhere fast. Neither Michael Penix Jr. nor Tua Tagovailoa have been able to participate in full football activities due to early injuries at Atlanta Falcons training camp. The former is limited to individual drills as he continues to rehab his torn ACL while Tagovailoa suffered a reported back flare-up. Both are expected to be cleared for 11-on-11 activities at some point this preseason.
That being said, we won't know who has the inside track to the starter job until these guys actually play real football. That could force us all to wait until at least Aug. 22, the second week of the preseason, to get an idea of where each of them actually stands. Whichever passer gets cleared for full activities first will have a slight edge, however. New head coach Kevin Stefanski will be itching to have some kind of clarity on a starter and since neither is a rookie, there's no real reason he can't lean on the first available guy.
Prediction: Based on the severity of injury recovery, Penix should be in better shape to start Week 1, but Tagovailoa has every opportunity to take the reins should his flare-ups subside in time
Las Vegas Raiders
This technically devolved out of a QB battle and into a development situation. The Las Vegas Raiders have what they hope is their passer of the future, Fernando Mendoza, but you can't sign Kirk Cousins for $172 million over five years just to be a bench-riding insurance option. This is where the wisdom of part-owner Tom Brady comes in. If there's anything the future Pro Football Hall of Famer knows, it's about development. He sat for a year behind Drew Bledsoe before being thrust into the spotlight. That year looks to have been the best thing for him, and it could be for Mendoza too.
Cousins went to Las Vegas because he wants to play football. The Raiders had to have promised him he wasn't walking into the same situation he did with Atlanta. That should be the clearest indication this "battle" is privately settled. Cousins may not be playing past the 2026 season but he's the kind of guy you bring in to make sure an injury to a less-vested passer one year doesn't tank the next three.
Prediction: Cousins starts in 2026 but the real battle with Mendoza begins next summer
Arizona Cardinals
The training camp battle was over the minute Jacoby Brissett negotiated a fully guaranteed one-year, $15.5 million contract on July 26. There were plenty of folks, including yours truly, who thought rookie Carson Beck could sneak up and steal the starting job at some point out of merit, but those hopes have been dashed for the time being. He'll stay QB3 behind Gardner Minshew and will have to wait for the injury bug to make its way to the desert.
All that being said, there's zero guarantee Brissett owns the starting role on his merit for the whole season. Beck may need a perfect storm of misfortune to strike the QB room to get an opportunity late in the year, but Minshew just needs Brissett to stink up the joint a few times before getting his shot. The Arizona Cardinals are expected to lose a lot of games this year, though, so the definition of "stinking it up" may be very broad if the goal is securing the No. 1 overall pick next April.
Prediction: It's Brissett's job to lose but Cardinals fans could see as many as three different passers start this year
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