Predictions for NFL MVP, OROY, DROY, and more awards in mid-October

Throughout the season, plenty of guys will throw their hats in the ring for the NFL awards at the end of the season. Some people will make splashes for a handful of weeks and then burn out, and some guys will keep crushing it for all 17 games. 

Let’s look at some of the guys starting their season strong, because those are the guys who have a chance to put a full season together … And if the football gods are true and just, they’ll be the ones who get a (smaller) trophy in February.

Comeback Player of the Year

Candidates: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, George Kittle, Fred Warner

A quarterback has won Comeback Player of the Year in seven of the last 10 seasons. That includes Geno Smith winning over Brandon Graham in 2022, and Joe Flacco winning over Damar Hamlin in 2023. 

Depending on how the rest of the season goes, and if Kyler Murray can build off of his Week 5 performance, he has a real shot to win. He’s only played in two full games this season, and they haven’t exactly been against defensive juggernauts (Dolphins and Saints) … So maybe this is a little premature.

At the end of the day, Mahomes is probably going to win this. The only reason that I think he might not is that there’s a chance Kenneth Walker III could win Offensive Player of the Year. If that happens, it’d be kind of hard to imagine another Chief winning an offensive award … However, it is Patrick Mahomes, so who knows?

Coach of the Year

Candidates: Kyle Shanahan, Klint Kubiak, Kevin O’Connell

Coach of the Year goes to the coach who overachieves relative to their preseason expectations, and four of the last 10 winners are either first-year head coaches or coaches who are new to their team. 

Kyle Shanahan is going to be in the conversation for Coach of the Year until the end of time. And Kevin O’Connell is always going to hang around if his team is winning games with a quarterback going through rehab.

I like Klint Kubiak so far. That Raiders offense was an abomination last season, and Kirk Cousins looked beyond washed. Kubiak came in, turned Cousins back into a good quarterback, and is using mostly the same personnel (6 of 11 guys) to win football games. 

Two things that don’t help: he’s not a defensive guy, and his defense has played really well this season. Also, they’re on a two-game losing streak right now, and they’re looking down the barrel of games against the Bills and the Rams. If Kubiak can turn it around, he’s going to shoot up the charts. If he can’t? Well … The start to the season was cool, and Shanahan will win. 

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Candidates: David Bailey, Arvell Reese, Sonny Styles

The Jets’ defensive end, David Bailey, had his coming-out party against the Browns in Week 5 when he had three sacks, eight tackles, four tackles for a loss, four quarterback hits, and a forced fumble. He was awesome … But it’s called a ‘coming-out party’ because he hasn’t really been that awesome for the first four games.

The Commanders’ linebacker Sonny Styles, on the other hand, has been pretty awesome from the get-go. And the terrifying thing is that you can see him getting better and better every game.

When he’s in the backfield, he’s erupting running backs in pass protection. When he’s in the open field, he’s making tackles. When he’s in coverage … he’s okay, but that’s fine for a rookie. The dude is a very effective player at a position that offensive coordinators are constantly trying to expose. 

He’s never going to get the sack numbers that a defensive end is going to get, but I’m not going to let pretty numbers affect the way I think about defensive players, and neither should you. 

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Candidates: Denzel Boston, Jeremiyah Love, Carnell Tate

OROY is anyone’s game. The Browns picked Denzel Boston (WR) in the second round, and he looks like a steal. The Cardinals picked Jeremiyah Love (RB) third overall, and he’s been fine, but not a superstar (he’s also been dealing with injuries). The Titans picked Carnell Tate (WR) fourth overall, and he’s been extremely boom-or-bust.

I wouldn’t be surprised if another rookie hops into the conversation by the end of the season … But for right now, Denzel Boston is the OROY, and it’s not really close.

Defensive Player of the Year

Candidates: Will Anderson Jr., Greg Rousseau, Fred Warner, T.J. Watt

Will Anderson Jr.’s 2025 season was good enough to win a DPOY in just about any year … except for last year, because that Myles Garrett fella just had to go and break the single-season sack record. 

Luckily for him, he picked up right where he left off. His numbers are great; he leads the NFL in sacks, he’s third in pressures, and first in quick pressures … But it’s his presence on every play and the unrelenting violence that he plays with that make him remarkable. 

We’re a quarter of the way through the season, and the dude has 7.5 sacks. It's so much fun to watch him do his job. If he’s been doing it this well for the past 22 games, I imagine that he’ll keep it rolling for the next 12.

Offensive Player of the Year

Candidates: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker III, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

At this point, we all know that the Offensive Player of the Year is just the MVP for non-quarterbacks. After five weeks, it’s a really close race between the three running backs: Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, and Kenneth Walker.

Gibbs is wildly explosive and is the whole reason the Lions offense functions. Bijan Robinson is the most talented and awesome running back (possible player) in the NFL. Kenneth Walker III transformed the Chiefs offense into a run-first unit, and he’s rushed for over 170 yards in half of the games he’s played. 

Kenneth Walker is going to end up being the Offensive Player of the Year. The Chiefs play in more Prime Time games, and they’re going to end up being a much more successful team than the other two. In a perfect world, this doesn’t get all Heismaned up and the Prime Time game part doesn’t really matter … But the Chiefs’ inevitable overall success is definitely going to help.

Also, he rocks, so it’s not like that’s necessarily a bad thing.

Most Valuable Player

Candidates: Josh Allen, Brock Purdy, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence, Joe Burrow

Good for Brock Purdy. Making it into any type of MVP conversation is tough to do … Unfortunately, he plays for Kyle Shanahan, so he’s probably not going to get it. 

Whether it’s fair or not, Shanahan and his system take the shine away from quarterbacks. The idea is that he’s such a good coach, play designer, and play caller that all he has to do with his quarterback is point and shoot. That minimizes the quarterback’s role.

Then you look at someone like Josh Allen, and it looks like they are playing an entirely different sport. He’s putting the Bills on his back and winning games the Bills have no business winning. This award is his to lose. 

Does recency bias have something to do with this? Eh. Probably … But that doesn’t make it any less deserved.

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