The worst Week 1 showings for QBs who eventually won the Super Bowl

What do Drake Maye, Dak Prescott, Matt Stafford, Daniel Jones, Justin Herbert, and Bo Nix all have in common? They’re all good quarterbacks, their teams are Super Bowl hopefuls, and they all stunk in Week 1 for one reason or another. Does one bad outing mean their season is over? Yeah, probably … But not definitely. 

Over the past 25 seasons, most Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks started their seasons playing somewhere between good and great, but there have been a handful of guys who had objectively bad showings. Let’s get in the time machine and see what happened with that second group of guys.

The worst Week 1 performances

Just for reference, these are the numbers that we’re looking at for the six guys coming off of a rough Week 1. Also, keep in mind that passer rating is on a scale of 1 to 158.3, and the 2025 average was 91.3.

I shied away from using some of the football nerd numbers and advanced stats because those didn’t exist when some of these bad Week 1 performances happened; got to keep it fair. Anyway, here are the five worst Week 1s of eventual Super Bowl-winning quarterbacks since the 2000 season, and how the games and seasons played out.

Aaron Rodgers in 2010

• 27-20 win at Philadelphia
• 19/31 (61.3%), 188 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs, 3 sacks, Passer Rating of 73.1
• Super Bowl XLV MVP

This was just about to be another one of those games where a team chokes away a lead. Going into the fourth quarter, the Packers had a 27-10 lead. The right thing to do in that spot is to run the ball, and the Packers did that a lot … But when it came time to throw it, Rodgers was a total dud. 

He rushed a backshoulder throw to James Jones on a third-and-five. They punted and the Eagles scored, making it a 27-17 game.

He overthrew Donald Driver by about 15 yards and sent it right to a deep safety for an interception. The Eagles kicked a field goal, making it a 27-20 game.

On the Packers’ last drive of the game, it came down to a third-and-seven. If they converted, they’d be able to kill the clock and kick a field goal with a new set of downs. Aaron Rodgers underthrew Greg Jennings by about five yards and gave the ball back to Philadelphia.

The Eagles offense ended up having a turnover on downs on their last drive, and the Packers won … But Rodgers was far from clutch when he needed to be. 

Eli Manning in 2011

• 28-14 loss at Washington
• 18/32, 56.3%, 268 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks, Passer Rating of 70.8
• Super Bowl XLVI MVP

This game was a weird one for ol’ Eli Manning. He couldn’t really put anything together in the first half, but he had a couple of chunk plays that turned into touchdowns. The second half was a different story.

He went to throw a short out to Hakeem Nicks, but Ryan Kerrigan tipped it to himself at the line of scrimmage for a pick-six. That was the third play of the half, and it was when everything fell apart for the Giants; they went down 21-14, and they were never able to get back. 

Manning had some good throws, but he took some gnarly sacks on early downs and followed those up with some bad throws. The offense stalled out on five of their six second-half drives, and the one that they didn’t stall on ended with a blocked field goal. 

Tom Brady in 2014

• 33-20 loss at Miami
• 29/56, 51.8%, 249 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 4 sacks, Passer Rating of 69.7
• Super Bowl XLIX MVP

Weird things happened when Tom Brady went down south: he played the Dolphins 36 times in his career. In the 18 games he played in Miami, he had an 8-10 record. 

The 56 passes that he threw in this game were the fifth-most passes that he threw in a single game in his career … but he also averaged 4.4 yards per attempt, which was the eighth-lowest of his entire career.

So it was a huge number of passes, a wildly low level of efficiency … and all of that production was in the first half.

The Pats went into halftime with a 20-10 lead over the Dolphins, and a lot of that is because New England scored on four-of-six first-half drives. 

In the second half, they didn’t do anything with any of their seven drives.  Not only did they have three three-and-outs (two in the fourth quarter), but Brady also lost two fumbles, which directly led to Miami scoring.

He flat-out stunk.

Peyton Manning in 2015

• 19-13 win vs. Baltimore
• 24/40, 60%, 175 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 4 sacks, Passer Rating of 59.9

You knew this list was going to include old Peyton Manning, right? The story of the 2015 season was all about how he was clearly washed up, but the Broncos' defense was otherworldly good … and this was the game where both of those things really showed their teeth. 

Manning couldn’t hit a soul and missed guys in just about every possible direction that exists. The offense didn’t make it to the red zone until their last real drive of the game, which, in Manning’s defense, was 17 plays and took 10:56 off the clock in the fourth quarter.

For what it’s worth, he did play better than Joe Flacco, who threw for 117 yards, zero touchdowns, and two interceptions. This was just a disgusting game. 

Tom Brady in 2003

• 31-0 loss at Buffalo
• 14/28 (50%), 123 yards, 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 2 sacks, Passer Rating of 22.5
• Super Bowl XXXVIII MVP

One of the craziest things about Tom Brady’s career is that he played in 335 regular-season games and was only shut out three times. This was the first one of them.

He got sacked by Lawyer Milloy, who was cut by the Pats five days earlier for not taking a play cut. He threw a pick-six straight to a 350-pound Sam Adams. He got benched for someone named Rohan Davey … and all of that happened while Drew Bledsoe was the Bills' starting quarterback, which must have been the most cathartic thing anyone has ever experienced.

Not only was this the worst Week 1 game of any quarterback who would go on to win a Super Bowl, but it was also the very worst game of Tom Brady’s career. 

Add us as a preferred source on Google

Follow