Who deserves to reset the RB market: Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson?

Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson have been the talk of the offseason when it comes to stars due fat contract extensions. Each running back will get paid at some point over the next few weeks, as both the Detroit Lions and Atlanta Falcons have picked up their fifth-year options — signaling that extension talks are underway. But who will actually reset the running back market? Whoever signs first will no doubt set a new record at the position, only to lose that record all in the same offseason.

But who will be the first one to sign? And who deserves to get paid more?

As good as Gibbs is, I think Robinson will be the one to truly rest the market — a bar previously set by Saquon Barkley, who got a nice pay raise after a historic 2024 season that ended with a Super Bowl. Robinson is more valuable to Atlanta than Gibbs is to Detroit. And with Kevin Stefanski at the helm now for the Falcons, their need for productive running back play is going to skyrocket. 

Bijan Robinson is more valuable to Atlanta than Jahmyr Gibbs is to Detroit

When you compare the two players, both have high usage rates. Over the last two seasons, Robinson has played at least 75 percent of the Falcons’ offensive snaps — including 79 percent of the offense's snaps in 2025. Gibbs hasn’t played more than 70 percent of the Lions’ snaps in any of his first three seasons. The most Gibbs has played in any season is 67 percent in 2025. 

Gibbs was the feature back in 2025, which is why his production increased, but what made the Lions so good as an offense was their two-headed monster in the backfield. Gibbs is good, but he’s always had a running mate, allowing him to be fresh and productive throughout the season. Robinson is the feature back in Atlanta, and it’s not just his usage that proves this; it's also the fact that he’s so efficient out of the backfield as a receiver.

Robinson had more than 2,200 scrimmage yards last year, the most in the NFL, to go with 11 combined rushing and receiving touchdowns. He also had 820 receiving yards, second only to Christian McCaffrey at the position. Those numbers could only tick up now that he has a head coach that loves to utilize the running back as a complete weapon.

It’s hard to argue against Robinson being the one that will reset the market. Gibbs has gotten the bulk of the attention because the Lions have been winning and he’s a big play waiting to happen. Robinson is the more valuable player between the two.

Jahmyr Gibbs value can’t be measured the same as Bijan Robinson’s

The Lions can’t compare Robinson’s extension to Gibbs', because the two offer two different things to their respective teams. Robinson is the Swiss army knife like McCaffrey in San Francisco, the lifeblood of the offense. The Falcons don’t have to invest heavily in their skill players when Robinson is playing the way he is. The Lions, on the other hand, shouldn’t have to invest heavily into Gibbs because he’s surrounded by elite weapons. 

Detroit has Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams as perimeter threats that eat away at opposing secondaries, while also having Sam LaPorta at tight end. They don’t need an elite running back, which is why they were fine using Gibbs and David Montgomery together for years. Gibbs is important to the Lions' success, though; let’s not diminish what he’s done simply because he might not be as big of a factor to the Lions like Robinson is to Atlanta. 

Gibbs has had 1,200-plus scrimmage yards in each of his first three seasons and at least 1,800 scrimmage yards each of the last two years. The Lions should be wise enough to sign Gibbs first. If they don’t, they could be forced to pay more than they could have if Robinson gets his deal first. 

Why Detroit should pay Jahmyr Gibbs as soon as possible

It feels like Robinson is going to get whatever dollar amount he wants. Right now, Barkley’s contract value is at $41.2 million, the most of any NFL running back. Detroit could be on the hook for similar to what De’Von Achane just got, or even McCaffrey's deal with the Niners. I think the most Gibbs will get paid is similar to what Barkley has, averaging $20.6 million per year. I don’t think Detroit should pay more than that; as good as Gibbs is, they don’t need to pay top dollar for a running back with the way this offense is built. 

Atlanta will most likely pay Robinson, at minimum, $20 million per year, and it could get above $21 million. If the Lions are forced to pay Gibbs that much because they didn’t get the deal done before Atlanta, it will make them think long and hard about extending Gibbs. Good running backs are at a premium, but they also have the shortest shelf life of any player in the NFL. Teams are just now starting to get back to paying high-end running backs. 

It’s a great time for both Robinson and Gibbs to need extensions. But their respective franchises have different reasons for retaining them at a high price point. For Atlanta, it’s about not letting their best player walk free and setting this offense back. For Detroit, it’s about keeping a young core together that still has a lot of potential to go on a playoff run. Whoever gets the deal done first is going to dictate how much the other gets.

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