2026 World Cup group rankings: From dream draws to the Group of Death

Figuring out which countries have the easiest and most difficult roads to hoe through the FIFA men's World Cup is a tradition unlike any other. But with the tournament moving to a new, 48-team format — expanding from eight groups to 12 — is the gap between groups as wide as it has been in the past? And what might that mean for this summer, as the best players in the world descend on North America?

We wanted to figure it out, so we ranked all 12 groups in this year's World Cup — from easiest to the dreaded Group of Death. You might not be as likely to see an absurd accumulation of talent under this new format, given just how many more groups there are. But certain paths sure seem easier than others.

12. Group B

• Canada (FIFA World Ranking: 30)
• Switzerland (19)
• Bosnia and Herzegovina (64)
• Qatar (57)

It's a tremendous draw for Jesse Marsch and Canada, who will not only get to play on their home continent but also have been grouped with two of the eight or 10 worst sides in this tournament in Bosnia and Qatar. Their stiffest competition atop Group B will be Switzerland, a sturdy side with its fair share of top European talent but one that doesn't have a particularly high ceiling. So too are the Canadians, despite playing an exciting, high-pressing style. Not much to see here.

11. Group A

• Mexico (14)
• South Korea (25)
• Czechia (39)
• South Africa (60)

Both South Korea and Czechia have made noise on the international stage before, but their current iterations aren't nearly as talented. South Africa, meanwhile, is among this World Cup's bottom-feeders. All of which sets up nicely for host nation Mexico, a program in transition that nonetheless should have more than enough talent to advance to the knockout rounds here. And the new format's rewarding of third-place teams means that even the South Korea-Czechia matchup should be devoid of much drama.

9. Group G

• Belgium (9)
• Iran (20)
• Egypt (29)
• New Zealand (85)

Beyond Jeremy Doku, Belgium has yet to develop a new wave of stars to replace a now-aging golden generation — and remember, this is a team that didn't even make it out of group play back in 2022. They should at least clear that bar this time around, if only because the group around them is so relatively weak, featuring an even older Iranian side and an Egypt team that has seen Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush suffer dips in form at inopportune times.

10. Group E

• Germany (10)
• Ecuador (23)
• Ivory Coast (33)
• Curacao (22)

This ranking is dragged down a good bit by Curacao, which might well be the weakest team in this year's field (even if they're also one of its best stories). The rest of this group could be more fun than expected: Germany always has one of the most cohesive systems in world soccer (and darn near beat Spain at the last Euros), while Ecuador boasts a pair of world-class defenders in Piero Hincapié and Willian Pacho and Ivory Coast has much more talent than their FIFA ranking suggests. It's a sign of how well-distributed (some might say diluted) the talent is at this World Cup that they rank so low.

8. Group C

• Brazil (6)
• Morocco (7)
• Scotland (42)
• Haiti (83)

We're now exiting "outright bad" and entering the "mediocre" portion of the list. I would be fading Brazil — a side still relying on a group of older stars who have now moved on to playing for lesser clubs around the world, plus a star in Neymar whose health is always a question — if I had any faith in Morocco or Scotland's ability to do more than play admittedly very irritating defense. A fading power, two struggle-ball sides who've seen middling results of late and a typical bottom-feeder in Haiti make this an uninspiring if hardly awful group.

7. Group H

• Spain (2)
• Uruguay (16)
• Saudi Arabia (61)
• Cape Verde (67)

When you start with the best team in the world, there's only so far you can fall. And really, for sheer entertainment value, you could argue for putting Group H considerably lower — it's hard to see anyone threatening either Spain or Uruguay for the top two spots here. I flip-flopped Groups H and C a few times, but I few Morocco and Uruguay as relatively similar sides, and I simply think Spain is a lot better than Brazil is right now.

6. Group L

• England (4)
• Croatia (11)
• Panama (34)
• Ghana (73)

This is not your older brother's Croatian side, but they're still pretty sturdy, while Panama at the very least has a lot of grown men with loads of international experience who know how to muck things up. And speaking of mucking things up: England might play the most exasperating soccer on Earth, but they're damn hard to beat. Really all three of C, H and L feature a clear favorite at the top followed by a couple of middle-class sides with knockout-round hopes and then an afterthought. You could order them however you like, but Croatia being the best second-place team of the bunch tipped the scales for me here.

5. Group J

• Argentina (1)
• Austria (24)
• Algeria (28)
• Jordan (63)

There's something to be said for a high floor, and Jordan is among the better No. 4 teams in this year's field. I don't expect either Austria or Nigeria to seriously threaten Argentina atop this group, especially considering the Argentinians' results of late, but I also wouldn't rule out an upset or two. Austria's roster has a lot of experience together and can give other sides fits with their pressing, while Algeria has youth and pace for days.

4. Group F

• Netherlands (8)
• Japan (18)
• Sweden (38)
• Tunisia (46)

If Brighton winger Kaoru Mitoma were healthy for Japan, I might be tempted to push this group even higher. Even so, though, I think Japan is substantially better than its FIFA ranking, with a rock-solid defense and a strong run of recent results. The strength of the top two here between Samurai Blue and the Netherlands is largely powering this ranking, as is the fact that neither Sweden nor Tunisia are total pushovers. We're now exiting the portion of this list in which there are any truly weak links.

3. Group D

• United States (17)
• Turkey (22)
• Australia (37)
• Paraguay (40)

Of the three host nations, the USMNT absolutely got the short end of the draw. While both Mexico and Canada should feel pretty comfortable about their chances of winning their respective groups, the Americans have to battle it out with three teams that advanced metrics think are pretty closely bunched together in terms of quality. Any one of these four could beat any of the others, and that puts even a third-place finish into some doubt. I'm picking the U.S. to advance, but there's little margin for error and no easy landing spots.

2. Group K

• Portugal (5)
• Colombia (13)
• Uzbekistan (50)
• Congo DR (45)

While Group D is formidable, none of its four countries would seem to have a particularly high ceiling in terms of how far they can advance in this tournament. The same can't be said for Group K, in which both Portugal and Colombia harbor legitimate hopes of making a deep run. The former just won the Nations League with loads of young attacking talent behind Cristiano Ronaldo, while the latter has been playing like a top-10 side globally in CONMEBOL. Even Congo has its share of Premier League talent in players like Noah Sadiki, Yoane Wissa and Aaron Wan-Bissaka. There could be some fireworks here.

1. Group I

• France (3)
• Senegal (15)
• Norway (31)
• Iraq (56)

While maybe not quite as daunting as some of the predecessors who have earned the title, Group I was almost immediately dubbed this year's Group of Death after the draw was announced — and it's not hard to see why. France is the obvious place to start, as Les Bleus are arguably the most talented team on Earth even without William Saliba and Hugo Ekitike. But that's just the tip of the iceberg: Senegal has a heavily European base of talent that should be AFCON champs were it not for some truly egregious bureaucratic shenanigans, while Norway boasts Martin Odegaard and the best striker in the world in Erling Haaland. Any of those three could wind up in a semifinal and I would not be surprised, which is something that only one group in this year's World Cup can say.

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