Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- Lionel Messi and Argentina have crafted a compelling narrative with constant come-from-behind wins against inferior teams.
- Argentina dominated England analytically with an expected goal of 1.84 compared to England's 0.53, quadrupling touches in the opposing box.
- The team will compete for their second consecutive World Cup title on Sunday against a Spanish side that has conceded only one goal this tournament.
Sometimes, you win because you have the mandate of statistical analysis. Other times, you win because you have the mandate of heaven. Lionel Messi and Argentina appear to have acquired both.
If the beautiful game was all beautiful narratives, you couldn't do much better than Argentina executing the first-ever Cinderella run despite being the pre-tournament number one seed. Having pulled off constant come-from-behind wins against inferior teams, it appears as though FIFA, every person on the street in a Messi jersey, the governments of the world, our metaphysical understanding of self and almighty God have all decided that Argentina must win the World Cup again. Messi is throwing down the ultimate Greatest of All Time heat check, having won the World Cup in his 2022 retirement tour only to come back four years later for another retirement tour and maybe win the damn thing again.
Messi and Argentina have put together another incredible story
For all the Eurocentrism of professional soccer, Argentina has repeatedly shown its ability to keep the South American game on top despite the recent World Cup mediocrity from Brazil. Messi has transcended ordinary GOAT status and is moving into GOGOAT (“Greatest Of All GOATS” [not the Pokemon]) territory. Should Messi and Argentina pull off their second consecutive World Cup, the 2020s will go down as their decade of dominance.
Whether or not Argentina has won the hearts and minds of neutral supporters is up for endless, fruitless debate, though rantings about “VARgentina” being gifted two victories over Egypt and Switzerland cannot possibly survive the majesty of their semifinal win over a more talented English roster. History does not remember tweets; it remembers trophies and names.
Argentina also showed how data-driven dominance works
But we need not stop at narratives, because Argentina threw down another gauntlet against England: analytical dominance. Showing that the nerds mean business, Argentina repeatedly forced the ball into danger zones with the same right-wing crosses and put the English defense under siege. Their glorious positioning led to an expected goal wipeout: 1.84 to 0.53, with Argentina quadrupling England’s touches in the opposing box 28 to seven.
They did this by relentlessly creating the type of situation they knew would eventually benefit them, something Lionel Messi has done his entire career to tremendous effect. Expected goals are fascinating because they remove the majesty of individual players and their perceived finishing ability. Messi is an all-all-all-time great shooter of the soccer ball, but he’s also the master of positioning. His ability to maneuver the ball into danger zones or draw defensive attention that opens up firing lanes for the likes of Enzo Fernandez has been the great advantage for Argentina (and every Messi team ever, for that matter). It’s not as flashy as a perfect free kick from outside the box, but it’s way more impactful.
And so Argentina won with math and with the grace of the universe. They will compete for their second consecutive World Cup on Sunday, and amid all the noise about their run through the bracket, I’d say they earned their shot at it. And while they may not have the mandate of heaven, Spain is the other analytical darling of this tournament, particularly defensively. They have conceded one singular goal in this tournament, and Argentina will probably need one of those if they want to finish the story. I cannot wait to see how this plays out.
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