Key Points
Bullet point summary by AI
- The United States clinched first place in World Cup Group D with a 2-0 win over Australia and Paraguay's 1-0 upset over Turkey.
- Australia needs only a draw against Paraguay to secure second place and advance, while Paraguay requires the same result to likely claim third.
- Turkey is already eliminated, and the U.S. will face Turkey in a dead rubber match with no impact on their knockout stage path.
Match day 2 in Group D was a monumental one as another co-host is through to the knockout stages. The United States beat Australia 2-0 in Seattle on Friday to officially clinch their spot in the next stage of the tournament, but the Americans got an even bigger gift later in the day.
The shocker came late at night in Santa Clara, where Paraguay scored 65 seconds into their match with Turkiye and held on for dear life for a 1-0 win despite playing the entire second half with just 10 men. The result secured the top spot in the Group D table for the USMNT, which already owns head-to-head tiebreakers against both Paraguay and Australia.
The results from Friday's action have created a unique setup for Group D on the third and final match day next week. The USA-Turkiye matchup is a rare dead rubber in the World Cup, while Australia faces off with Paraguay as both teams fight for the one guaranteed spot in the Round of 32.
World Cup Group D Standings
Team | Record | Points | Goal differential |
|---|---|---|---|
United States | 2-0-0 | 6 | +5 |
Australia | 1-0-1 | 3 | 0 |
Paraguay | 1-0-1 | 3 | -2 |
Turkiye | 0-0-2 | 0 | -3 |
What's next for the United States: Knockout round scenarios
- Final group game: vs. Turkey 6/25, 10 p.m. ET at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
- Minimum result to advance: Clinched first in Group D
There was surely some celebrating going on at the USMNT's base camp on Saturday night as they know they will win their World Cup group, a bare mimimum accomplishment to check off on their to-do list. Being able to treat the Turkiye matchup as an exhibition could be good news for Mauricio Pochettino, who can give Christian Pulisic more time to return to fitness after suffering a calf injury in their opener.
The U.S. lineup against could also be a bit different with four different starters carrying one yellow card, so Pochettino could sit all of them to avoid risk of a suspension in the Round of 32. As a result, Pochettino may give some lightly used players a chance to play against Turkiye to keep them fresh and ready to contribute in the knockout stages.
The Americans now have a set path through the remainder of the tournament, with the Round of 32 matchup set on July 1 in Santa Clara, a round of 16 match in Seattle on July 6, a quarterfinal match in Los Angeles on July 10 before a semifinal in Arlington, Tex., on July 14. That path is a geographic benefit for the squad, who can stay in their base camp in Irvine, Calif., without a significant flight until the semifinals.
As the winner of Group D, the United States is set to draw a third-place team from one of Groups B, E, F, I or J. The teams currently occupying those positions in the table are as follows:
- Group B: Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Group E: Ecuador
- Group F: Netherlands
- Group I: Senegal
- Group J: Jordan
What Australia needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. Paraguay 6/25, 10 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
- Minimum result for potential advancement: Draw
- Most likely scenario: Advance in second place
Things got a bit chippy in the Socceroos' match against the United States, making a 2-0 loss a disappointing result with the hosts playing minus Pulisic. The good news is that Australia does have three points banked from their opening win against Turkiye, putting themselves in excellent position to advance to the knockout stage.
The Athletic's projection model gives Australia a greater than 99 percent chance to advance with a mere draw against Paraguay. A win or draw would lock up second place in Group D for the Socceroos, who are ahead of Paraguay on goal differential (0 to -2) — and a draw wouldn't swing that result in either direction.
Things get a bit more dicey with a loss, but the same projection model still gives Australia a 72 percent chance to advance if they fall to third. Whoever finishes second in Group D will face the runner-up in Group G in Arlington, Tex., on July 3rd. That opponent would currently be Iran, but things could change quickly with all four sides in Group D sitting on one point.
What Paraguay needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. Australia 6/25, 10 p.m. ET, Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif.
- Minimum result for potential advancement: Draw
- Most likely scenario: Advance in third place
After a disastrous showing against the USMNT in their opener, Paraguay played a much sharper defensive game against Turkiye on Friday night. Grabbing the opening goal 65 seconds into the match helped, but a red card for Miguel Almiron prior to the start of stoppage time in the first half meant Paraguay essentially had to park the bus for 45 minutes to ensure they got three points.
Almiron will now be suspended for the final group-stage match against Australia, but The Athletic's projection model gives Paraguay a 99 percent chance to advance if they can manage a draw with the Socceroos. A loss would make things much more perilous for Paraguay, whose chances to advance drop to 44 percent since they are already carrying a -2 goal differential thanks to their loss to the United States.
We're projecting a draw thanks to Paraguay's rugged defensive structure, which would get them to four points and a third-place spot out of Group D in all likelihood. The third-place side in Group D has three different possible round of 32 opponents, which will be determined by where they fall in a ranking of the eight advancing third-place sides. Those options, based on the current tables, are:
- Vs. Group E winner: Germany on June 29 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Mass.
- Vs. Group I winner: Norway on June 30 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ
- Vs. Group K winner: Colombia on July 3 in Kansas City, Mo.
What Turkiye needs to advance
- Final group game: vs. United States on 6/25, 10 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, Calif.
- Minimum result to advance: None
- Most likely scenario: Eliminated
One of the most surprising results of the tournament so far is that Turkiye is already eliminated from the competition. Losses to both Australia and Paraguay have buried them in the table, ensuring they are out of contention for a knockout stage appearance before they even take the field against the United States on Thursday.
The move to a 48-team World Cup means FIFA modified its tiebreaker system to account for eight third-place sides advancing. As a result, head-to-head now takes precedence over goal differential. Turkiye cannot finish third even if they beat the USMNT in blowout fashion, since they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker against either of their other Group D opponents.
There is no one to blame for Turkiye's predicament than themselves, however, as they tilted the field significantly in both matches but couldn't score a goal in either game. The matchup against Paraguay also saw the Turks play against 10 men in the second half after Almiron's red card, which should have given them plenty of opportunity to at least equalize and be in position to advance with a win against the United States, but they couldn't do that.
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