The WNBA is back after the FIBA World Cup break, but there's, uhh ... not really a ton of drama in this final stretch of the regular season. All eight playoff spots are determined. There will be seeding changes, but all seven eliminated teams know that they are, well ... eliminated.
But what about next season? Can any of these teams make an offseason leap and get into the 2027 playoffs? And if they can, which team is most likely to do that? Let's rank the non-playoff teams by their likelihood of making next year's postseason.
7. Connecticut Sun / Houston Comets
That Connecticut doesn't have the league's worst record in 2026 is a bit of a miracle. I think it's hard to really say that another WNBA team has a weaker roster from top to bottom; it's just that this team has a lot of fight in it and hasn't just rolled over. But without a true young star yet on the roster, it's just hard to see this franchise — which will be moving to Houston next season and which I will now refer to as Houston for the rest of this section since we're discussing 2027 — make some sudden playoff leap.
Olivia Nelson-Ododa is mounting a case for Most Improved Player and there's some talent at guard with Leila Lacan, but largely this team heads to Houston as a blank slate, especially if Brittney Griner opts to sign elsewhere. They'll get a top pick in the draft, but that top pick isn't going to be enough to propel Houston into the postseason.
The best-case scenario here is that Houston gets the No. 1 pick in the draft in 2027, then has another rough season and gets the No. 1 pick again in 2028, at which point a playoff run for 2028 could be in play. But for now? The playoffs will remain out of reach.
6. Seattle Storm
The Storm are sixth on this list, but I also think they're the team with the highest variance next season. If the Dominique Malonga and Awa Fam frontcourt continues to develop and the team trades Ezi Magbegor for someone who can handle the ball and create her own shot, there's a chance that this team surprises people.
But just a "chance." The key there is flipping Magbegor for someone who can help you now, and those types of trades tend to be rare in the WNBA, especially if you're dealing Magbegor as she comes off of an injury, as her value is likely to be down.
More than likely, the team adds another young player in the draft and keeps trying to build that way. There's definitely long-term upside here, but 2027 is likely to be another struggle, though not to the level of 2026. Seattle could easily double its win total, which would be a great sign for the future but would also still result in the team being eliminated from playoff contention with multiple weeks left in the season.
5. Toronto Tempo
It's hard to really know what to think of the Tempo. A backcourt of Marina Mabrey and Brittney Sykes is fun if both players are healthy, but you can only really go so far with those two as your best players.
Toronto just doesn't have the cohesiveness of its fellow expansion team down in Portland, and it currently lacks any young players with star upside. You could imagine Kiki Rice as the third-best player on a contender when she hits her prime, but you need those other two players who are better.
The best chance this team has to make a playoff run in 2027 is to use its massive amount of cap space to the roster. The team sheds about $3 million in cap space from impending free agents and could theoretically use that to make something happen in free agency.
4. Los Angeles Sparks
Not long ago, the Los Angeles Sparks appeared to be on the verge of becoming playoff contenders, as a strong run to end 2025 brought a ton of hope into 2026. Things mostly fell apart, though, and the Sparks just never really were able to mount that playoff challenge.
The good news for the Sparks? In addition to having their own lottery pick in 2027, the team also has Phoenix's lottery pick after trading Kelsey Plum. Adding a couple of good young players to this roster is intriguing, though a lot will still depend on Cameron Brink's development and whether or not Ariel Atkins can bounce back after really struggling this season.
You can squint your eyes enough to see a playoff contender here if this offseason goes right, though I wouldn't call it likely at all. More than likely, if a non-playoff team does make the postseason in 2027, it's going to be one of the following three.
3. Chicago Sky
The Sky are in a weird spot here, because there's a lot of talent on the roster but it's also tough to imagine that the team goes into 2027 with one of those key pieces: Skylar Diggins. While she's under contract for next season, the situation between her and the Sky seems strained. Let's not forget that before she was shut down for the season with a knee injury, there was talk about moving Diggins to the bench.
Still, if the team gets Rickea Jackson back healthy, there's talent here with her, Azura Stevens and Kamilla Cardoso. Courtney Vandersloot returning for another season would be a plus as well.
There's also the possibility that a Diggins trade brings back a piece who can help the team immediately, but there's also the complication that the Sky don't have their own lottery pick for 2027, so they'll miss out on adding a top young talent. The Sky front office has a history of poor decisionmaking, so...yeah. The talent is probably there to make a playoff run but history suggests that it won't actually happen.
2. Portand Fire
Portland has less high-end talent than other teams that missed the postseason, but something about this expansion franchise has just clicked. It feels a lot like the Valkyries last season — a new team that doesn't have true stars, but that develops together well and is really competitive.
What Golden State had working for it that Portland doesn't have is that it built its initial roster as the only expansion team. There were two this year, diluting things a bit, so the team is still a little ways back of where the Valkyries were at this point in their debut season, as the Valkyries managed to sneak into the playoffs in Year 1 before becoming one of the league's best teams in Year 2.
With the right offseason moves, the Fire can follow a modified version of that path: sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed in 2027 before mounting a real effort at contending in 2028. It will require a lot of luck, but this roster works together really well already, so as long as the team doesn't radically change its approach this offseason, good things should be on the way.
1. Phoenix Mercury
2026 was a major disappointment for a Mercury team that went to the WNBA Finals in 2025, but as long as the team returns Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper next season, there's a chance for a bounce-back campaign. That's made even more possible if the Mercury can convince mid-season acquisition Kelsey Plum to re-sign, as that would give the team the best trio of any team that missed the playoffs in 2026.
Sure, the team has a lot to figure out at the margins. The bench depth just hasn't really been there, and while the team deserves applause for how good its been at international scouting, those players — save for Monique Akoa Makani, who was traded for Plum, and Noémie Brochant — haven't really developed into difference makers.
But when it comes down to it, this is a super star league, and the Mercury have Thomas, a perennial MVP contender who is probably just having a bit of an off year. Maybe I'm wrong about that — she's 34 years old and all of her numbers have dropped since last season — but I'm more willng to bet on Thomas bouncing back than on anything else involving a non-playoff team.
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