Fantasy Baseball: 2015 Seattle Mariners Fantasy Outlook

Mar 30, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners second baseman Robinson Cano (22) rounds third base and scores a run against the Los Angeles Angels at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Spring Training is in full swing (pun intended), and the regular season is right around the corner. That means that our fantasy drafts are as well.

2015 Seattle Mariners Projected Starting Lineup:

C: Mike Zunino (.199, 22HR, 60RBI, 0SB)
1B: Logan Morrison (.262, 11HR, 38RBI, 5SB in 99 games)
2B: Robinson Cano (.314, 14HR, 82RBI, 10SB)
SS: Brad Miller (.221, 10HR, 36RBI, 4SB)
3B: Kyle Seager (.268, 25HR, 96RBI, 7SB)
LF: Dustin Ackley (.245, 14HR, 65RBI, 8SB)
CF: Austin Jackson (.256, 4HR, 47RBI, 20SB with Detroit/Seattle)
RF: Seth Smith (.266, 12HR, 48RBI, 1SB with San Diego)
DH: Nelson Cruz (.271, 40HR, 108RBI, 4SB with Baltimore)

Zunino has impressive power, but he has yet to prove that he can get on base on a regular basis. With defensive standout John Hicks lurking behind him, this could be his last chance to prove that he can handle big league pitching. The power is a great asset if you are going to ignore batting average and target Chris Carter, George Springer, Brandon Moss, and Ike Davis. If you are punting average, you can take him in a standard league. If not, he is best left for deeper leagues until he gets hot.

LoMo may never hit 20 homers again like he did with the Marlins in 2011, but he is a solid player in deep leagues because his average won’t hurt you.

Cano’s power has all but vanished in Seattle, and it isn’t all because of his skills. At 34, he is starting to diminish some, but he hit 13 less home runs. That is a pretty steep decline. On the bright side, he set a career high in stolen bases, and maintained a really good batting average. I tend to think he is being overdrafted in a lot of leagues. He likely won’t hit 20 homers this year, and he might not steal ten bases again. So why is he still the top second baseman off the board in some drafts? I tend to think that Jose Altuve is ahead of him by a pretty wide margin even if he does regress some this year. I wouldn’t take Cano before the sixth round, but you know he is long gone by then.

Miller has a lot of upside, but he too has struggled to hit major league pitching. At age 25, time is running out on him, especially in an organization as loaded in position players as the Mariners are. None of them are likely to get the call in 2015, but come next year, look out. As for Miller, he should hit around 12-15 homers and will steal a hand full of bags, but that average will scare you away in all but leagues of 16 teams or more.

Seager has crushed in relative obscurity in Seattle. He has three straight 20 homer seasons, and has raised his batting average in each of his four seasons. At a thin position like third base, Seager is currently being taken in the sixth round of most drafts, but I would take him in the fifth if I didn’t really care for anyone else out there. He could flirt with 30 homers, and is likely to hit around .270. That would put him close to the production of Evan Longoria and Carlos Santana at a slightly cheaper price.

Ackley and Smith are likely headed for platoons with Rickie Weeks (.274, 8HR, 29RBI, 3SB in 252 at bats with Milwaukee) and Justin Ruggiano (.281, 6HR, 28RBI, 2SB in 224 at bats with the Cubs) respectively. This is the smart move for the club, but it is a nightmare scenario for fantasy players. None of them are worth rostering in standard leagues, and are only deep league options if you are desperate or someone gets hot.

Jackson was looking good in Detroit, but struggled after his move to the Northwest. He hit just .229 in 54 games with Seattle, and didn’t hit a single home run. He has never been an elite base stealer, and this park is going to sap his power. Jackson is only a deep league option at this point.

Let’s get this out of the way right now: Nelson Cruz is not going to hit 40 homers this year. In fact, I doubt he hits 30. The last Mariner to reach that mark was Russell Branyan in 2009. The odds are against him. However, he might still drive in 100, and hit around .270, so he is worth a middle round selection in standard leagues. Just expect closer to 25 home runs than 40.

Next: How Does The Rotation Look?

Mar 22, 2015; Peoria, AZ, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher James Paxton (65) looks on during the game against the Texas Rangers at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

2015 Seattle Mariners Projected Starting Rotation:

Felix Hernandez (15-6, 2.14 ERA, 248K)
Hisashi Iwakuma (15-9, 3.52 ERA, 154K)
James Paxton (6-4, 3.04 ERA, 59K in 13 starts)
J.A. Happ (11-11, 4.22 ERA, 133K)
Taijuan Walker (2-3, 2.81 ERA, 34K in five starts)
Fernando Rodney (1-6, 2.85 ERA, 76K, 48/51 saves)

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It’s hard to believe that King Felix will only be 29 years old next week. It seems like he has been around forever. He had a season for the ages last year, but was mostly overshadowed by Clayton Kershaw. While he may not post a microscopic 2.14 ERA again, there is reason to believe that he can keep it under 3, and he is an elite strikeout pitcher. He is going in the first round of some drafts, and I have a hard time finding fault with that. If you miss out on Kershaw, he is likely the next best option.

Iwakuma regressed some last year, but that is likely more of a true assessment of his skills than his breakout 2013 season was. That still makes him a good middle of the rotation guy in standard leagues. He is not going to strike out 200 batters, but 175 is a strong possibility.

Paxton is not an elite strikeout guy, but he is superb at inducing outs. He has a 2.66 career ERA in 17 starts. Those numbers might inflate a bit over the rigors of a full season, but he is still a good bet to keep the ERA in the low 3’s and rack up 140 strikeouts or so. That makes him worthy of a pick in the 18-20 round range.

Happ is likely just eating up some innings until Michael Kickham is ready. Happ has had a miserable spring, and the Mariners could be scrambling to fill his slot in the rotation if he continues to struggle. He is not worth a look in any league right now.

Walker has been one of the best prospects in the system for a while now, and pitched well last September. Now he will get to show his stuff over a full season. Don’t draft him based on buzz -he will likely have some growing pains- but he could be a nice stash on your bench in the late rounds of standard drafts.

Rodney led the majors in saves last year, but that is not likely to happen again. Rodney does have 133 saves over the last three seasons, but his ERA suggests that he is a notch or two below the elite ones. His 1.34 WHIP also shows that nearly every save is an adventure. One of these days, it won’t work so well in his favor. He is worth a pick once the middle tier of closers start going in your draft.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for more of our team by team predictions!

Next: The Top Ten First Basemen in Fantasy

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