Todd Frazier: Top-10 in 2016?
By Bill Pivetz
May 5, 2015; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Cincinnati Reds third baseman
Todd Frazier(21) rounds the bases after hitting a solo home run against the Pittsburgh Pirates during the second inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Seven weeks into the 2015 baseball season, there have been a lot of surprises. Rookies are exceeding expectations, struggling players are having their breakout season and previously injured pitchers are back to their old ways. However, the biggest note is the emergence of Todd Frazier as a top-tier fantasy option. Can he enter the 2016 season as a top-10 player?
Frazier has improved each season in his five-year career. He finished with 29 home runs, 80 RBI and 20 stolen bases with a .273/.336/.459 line in 2014. Frazier has 12 home runs, 23 RBI, six stolen bases and only 27 strikeouts with a .250/.346/.564 in just 37 games this season. At this rate (152 games), he will finish with 49 home runs, 94 RBI and 110 strikeouts. I don’t believe he will get close to 50 home runs, but 35/95 sounds more accurate, which is good enough to be a top-10 hitter
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As far as this season, let’s see how he compares to the first 10 batters drafted in ESPN.com leagues based on ADP.
Mike Trout: 10 HR, 21 RBI, seven SB, .281 average. He is the obvious No. 1 player next year.
Andrew McCutchen: four HR, 22 RBI, two SB, .233 average. It’s been a disappointing season for McCutchen owners. However, the power is coming back, two home runs in his last six games. He will be a top-five player next season.
Giancarlo Stanton: 11 HR, 36 RBI, three SB, .243 average. Has he been amazing or what? Every home run he hits is further than the previous one. He supplants McCutchen as the No. 2 player in 2016.
Paul Goldschmidt: 10 HR, 32 RBI, six SB, .328 average. Goldy hit .338 in April and is currently hitting .317 this month. He is the main focal point of the Arizona Diamondbacks. As long as he stays healthy, Goldy will be a top-five player.
Miguel Cabrera: 10 HR, 30 RBI, one SB, .333 average. Many thought 2015 would be the beginning of the end for Miggy. He’s showing no signs of slowing down. He will fall to the second-half of the top 10, but a first-round pick nonetheless.
Carloz Gomez: Four HR, 15 RBI, three SB, .267 average. After a slow start, Gomez looks to be back on track. He hit safely in seven of his last eight games with three home runs and six RBI. The threat of a 25/40 is still there, something he almost accomplished in back-to-back seasons. That alone will keep him in the top 10.
Jose Abreu: Six HR, 22 RBI, 0 SB, .293 average. After an insane rookie season, the hype was on for Abreu. I, along with others, knew he couldn’t repeat those numbers. While everything else is down, he is still a top first baseman in the league.
Jose Bautista: Seven HR, 23 RBI, one SB, .235 average. Bautista has dealt with minor injuries throughout his career. He’s dealing with a shoulder injury now, but is still batting. I’d drop him in my 2016 rankings, but not by much.
Robinson Cano: One HR, 11 RBI, one SB, .253 average. Cano will no longer be a top-10 batter next season. Flat out. Does he wish Nelson Cruz never showed up? It’s been two bad years in Seattle compared to the career he had in New York. Unless he turns it around, I’m avoiding Cano next season.
Edwin Encarnacion: Nine HR, 25 RBI, one SB, .240 average. Like his teammate, Encarnacion is dealing with small injuries. Though, it’s not affecting his power. He has four home runs and seven RBI in his last seven games. He could be a player I move to the first part of the second round next season.
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I think two pitchers will be drafted in the first round again, and the names are obvious. The first round of the 2016 season will end up being Trout, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Clayton Kershaw, McCutchen, Abreu, Gomez, Cabrera, Bautista, Frazier, Felix Hernandez. This may knock Frazier out of the first round, depending on whose rankings you look at. Regardless, he should still be drafted as a top-10 hitter next season.
The only negative about Frazier’s game now is his batting average. He can definitely improve that by the end of the season. The power is legit and the speed is enough to help you throughout the season.
Frazier has dual eligibility at first and third base, two of the deeper positions in fantasy baseball. If you plan on drafting a corner infielder early, I have three first basemen ahead of Frazier, I hold no qualms about drafting Todd Frazier at the end of the first round.