Felix Hernandez: The King’s Reign is Over
By Bill Pivetz
A starting pitcher that finds himself consistently being drafted at the end of the first/beginning of the second round is hard to come by. That has been the case with Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez. He has been one the league’s best pitcher over the last 10 years. However, this year has opened up some eyes to what could be Hernandez’s final year of dominance.
Felix Hernandez recorded double-digit wins in nine of his 11 seasons, including 2015. He had an above-3.50 ERA just three times, again including this season. He had six consecutive seasons, from 2009 to 2014, with at least 200 strikeouts. He could be cutting it close this season with 151 Ks in 25 starts.
This season, Felix Hernandez has a 14-8 record with a 3.74 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and an 8.5 K/9 ratio. His ERA and WHIP are the highest it’s been since 2008. So, what is going on with King Felix?
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His strikeouts per nine and walks per nine (2.49) are the lowest and highest , respectively, since 2011. His home runs per nine (0.91) and HR/FB rate (13.9 percent) are the highest they have been since 2007, . In a nutshell, he doesn’t have command of his pitches and the pitches he is getting in the strike zone are being crushed out of the ballpark.
The first two months of the season were wonderful. He finished with an 8-1 record, 1.91 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in that span. Then, the wheels fell off. On June 1, he went just 4.2 innings, allowing seven runs on six hits and five walks. Two outings later, he recorded just one out after giving up eight runs on five hits (two home runs) and two walks.
Felix Hernandez has been even worse over the last 30 days. Since July 29, he has a 8.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. He gave up 10 runs on 12 hits (three home runs) in 2.1 innings. His most recent outing was a little better, but that isn’t saying much. He pitched six innings, allowing four runs on nine hits and a walk.
On the season, Felix Hernandez is No. 22 on the ESPN Player Rater among starting pitchers. His ranking is based on the excellent first half of the season. Over the last 30 days, he is No. 204. That number usually references his strikeouts total, not pitcher ranking.
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Because he hasn’t missed a start this season, it’s hard to assume that the bad outings have been due to injury. However, it could be something that he is hiding from management, which is costing his team and fantasy owners. Not like he cares about the latter, though.
If you own Hernandez, it would be hard to keep him in your starting lineup for much longer. His next outing will be Wednesday night against the Oakland Athletics. The A’s are 19th in batting average, T-28th in home runs and 24th in RBI in the month of August. So, if you were to start Hernandez one more time this season, this could be the start to do it.
Felix Hernandez has not been dropped in any ESPN.com leagues over the last seven days. Not surprisingly, because he could easily turn it around at any point. At this point, you might as well just ride out the rest of 2015. Heading into next season, however, you may want to think twice about drafting Hernandez, because the kingdom may be crumbling down.