Surprising On/Off Court Stars from 2014-2015

One of the best exercises to find and assess trends of success and failure in the NBA is to look at on/off-court numbers, available for every team on the NBA stats page. To me it’s in many ways the first “feel” test to quickly give some degree of verification or confidence about the direction I’m taking when it comes to forming my evaluation (positive or negative) of a player’s performance, situation and impact on the court.

Generally I think on/off-court numbers really are the first place where you’re likely to see something interesting if anything interesting is to be found. Although you could argue that there are typically multiple factors that should decrease confidence in a piece of analysis heavily influenced by on/off numbers– such as small playing time, skill level of opposition (a player going against bench heavy units), teammate skill– the degree to which each of these factors effects on/off numbers tends to be overestimated. Adjusted plus-minus systems should take into account all that, at least in theory, but because of the methodology and variance involved by the time the formula spits out a reliable results it’s likely that everyone knows what’s going on.

A recent example here would be the difference between Rudy Gobert and Enes Kanter. Even in 2013-2014, the Jazz were at their best with Rudy Gobert on the court and at their worst with Kanter on it. For Kanter, the sample size of futility was much bigger and thus a pretty simple analysis to make, but Gobert only played 434 minutes. How confident could you be that the Jazz were obviously going to be much better, and jump from being one of the worst teams in the NBA to one of the best from the beginning to the end of last season?

The answer probably is that you should have thought there was something real and fishy going on (shout out to Zach Lowe and his article from September 2014 here), and if there ever was a chance to make the trade of the century it would have been when Rudy Gobert was riding the bench for Tyrone Corbin. Now everyone knows that Rudy Gobert is a Defensive Player of the Year caliber guy and in hindsight it would seem easy to to realize these things, but I would argue that it’s not an accident that Antetokounmpo and Gobert are going to be considered the two biggest draft day steals of the first half of the decade. And any hint that their types draftees who are athletic freaks with potentially high upsides give towards being a good player is an indication that should be taken seriously.

The antithesis of the Gobert example works too (and Kanter is definitely in this category right now). Jeff Green’s teams have always been better with him off the court and in most years by extraordinary margins. Green may have averaged 17.6 points per game while with the Celtics last season but beyond that there should have been no indication whatsoever that he has ever made an NBA team better. At 29 years of age it would seem likely that he never will.

The table above should shut the lid on any conversation of Green being a significant part of a contender, at least given any role resembling the ones he has played before for other teams.

When you go through the on/off numbers for each team, there are players who stand out above the pack. Some of these players are superstars and the names you would think are the very best on their team (LeBron James, Chris Paul, Stephen Curry), but on about half the teams you’ll find standout players who aren’t the most obvious to most at first glance (it should be added that there’s a group of players who are considered stars but haven’t done that well by on/off measurements. For years at a time.) These players tend to fall into one of a few categories: a) role player, who is the final piece that makes a team go b) under appreciated defensive star c) other special single skill that is extra valuable. Note that these players are my picks, and if you do the exercise yourself, you may want find yourself adding a name.

*minimum 1200 minutes played. Special note considerations to Tyson Chandler, Kawhi Leonard.

Shooting big men

Nikola Mirotic and Kelly Olynyk made the list, and even though neither plus/has shot the ball (yet) at an elite level in the NBA, both are plus/minus stars on their respective teams. Markieff Morris and Patrick Patterson were both on the brink of making this category, and typically if a player can guard a big position to an adequate degree and even sniff good shooting, you’re almost for certain a massive plus on the court. On the even less sexy names front, Darrell Arthur and Al-Farouq Aminu were both highly rated within their teams.

Elite defensive wings

I wrote about this a few months back, but elite wing defense is something that is probably rewarded poorly. Tony Allen and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are the obvious guys, but the logic can be applied to George Hill too.

I didn’t know/wasn’t sure you were obviously my best player

This tends to apply to teams with multiple stars, but from the list Khris Middleton would seem to fit the bill. If you look at the Clippers, Chris Paul has always been the on/off-court star, not Blake Griffin or DeAndre Jordan. Another example has been LaMarcus Aldridge, and Wesley Matthews this season, over Damian Lillard. As a prediction, this is the category Kawhi Leoanrd will destroy Aldridge in next season. Despite Aldridge being viewed as the star of the two.

Other random notes about on/off numbers in general

• I think it’s possible more of what makes players who do well in on/off court numbers, but aren’t versatile scorers, can be taken away by better scouting and defensive tactics. Kyle Korver and Allen have suffered from this.
• Having gone back and now twice watched every single Jazz game post All-Star, the question of who is the best player on the team is fascinating to me. Hayward is the scorer and hub on offense, and the consensus is that he’s the best player. Gobert may win defensive player next year and the NBA nerd community loves him. But I’ll say this, Derrick Favors should be the most likely candidate to make an All-Star team in the west next season given fair recognition.
• I added Kawhi Leonard as an honorable mention under the table. This was because his numbers are crazy compared to everyone else. Steph Curry was the best last year, but the starting lineup around him had numbers that were relatively close. On the Spurs, no one touches Kawhi.