Tyson Ross: Emerging Fantasy Ace in 2016?
By Brad Kelly
If I were to ask you what MLB pitcher has 49 consecutive starts giving up no more than four earned runs in any start, could you guess who? Some immediate names pop into your head like, Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta,or Madison Bumgarner, but what if i told that none of those were the correct answer. The pitcher that has been able to accomplish this is no other than, Tyson Ross.
Sine Ross made his way to the Padres three years ago, he has been quietly developing into one of the best pitchers in the league. Over the last three seasons he doesn’t have an ERA higher than 3.26 and has averaged about 175 K a year.
Fantasy wise Ross has been a guy that owners have labeled as a sleeper thanks in part to his quality stuff and his tendency to continually get overlooked by some of the flashier names. Heading into 2016 though, Ross may finally deserve fantasy ace recognition.
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Ross finished the 2015 season with a pitching line of, 10 W/3.26 ERA/1.30 WHIP/212 K. The strikeouts were a career high and while the ERA was nearly a half run higher than 2014, he did set a career high for starts with 33 this season.
What I have loved about Ross’s progression these last three years is that he has the ability to not only put you away at the plate, he can also induce groundballs outs at a terrific rate. In 2015 his GB% was nearly 63%, ranking him third overall in the league. Mix that with the 200+K production and it forces owners to have to take notice.
Generally when we think of Padres pitchers we automatically think that their success is buoyed by playing half of their games every season in the pitcher’s paradise, Petco Park. Ross breaks that mold though as he had more success on the road, 2.83 ERA in 17 starts, compared to when at home where he posted a, 3.70 ERA in 16 starts.
This also comes into play because I am not absolutely sure that Ross will be a Padre in 2016, so if he does find himself somewhere else he has the skillset to thrive in any situation. If he were to move somewhere else it could even serve as a benefit as the Padres disastrous defense masks the fact that Ross’s FIP was actually, 2.98 and their offensive struggles killed his win total.
One other encouraging sign is that because of his stuff and propensity to induce ground balls, he rarely gives up any dingers. He only have up 9 homers all year, a homer rate that stacks him right there with the possible NL Cy Young himself, Jake Arrieta.
For me Ross is already ranks as low end SP1 or elite SP2. Like most of the fantasy world, Ross is the perfect target when you wait on pitching in drafts. Even as good as he has been, there is still some areas that can be ironed out and propel his value even further.
With Ross’s nasty stuff and funky delivery he is prone to command problems. Last season he had 84 walks and 14 wild pitches. He doesn’t throw anything straight and while that is a tremendous skill to have, it can be problematic if not controlled.
The walks are ghastly to look at no doubt, but Ross did work on it and it showed over the course of the season. During the first half of the season, he had 55 walks in 110 innings pitched. However, during the second half, he cut the walks per game clip down tremendously and only had 29 over 85 innings.
As we all know lack of command kills even the best arsenals, so another result of last seasons command issue was that he could not last that long in games and failed to cross the 200 innings pitched mark that we need from our rotation aces. But, I do not see Ross fighting his command like we saw in 2015 and that should allow him to keep offering quality starts.
Ross has everything you could ask for, high K upside, consistency and the ability to not kill you any given week with a terrible outing. His wins will certainly go up no matter what team he winds up on, and all peripheral stats point to more success. It is time to stop overlooking Ross and now make him a must own in 2016.