Fantasy Fallout: Craig Kimbrel Beantown Bound

It was only a matter of time before the Boston Red Sox made their first move of the offseason as Dave Dombrowksi struck a deal with San Diego for all-star closer, Craig Kimbrel.

Ask any Tigers fan and they will tell you that the reason they never got over the hump during Dombrowski’s tenure was the fact that they did not have a shutdown arm at the back of their bullpen. It seems like Dombrowski will not make the same mistake twice now that he has solidified Boston’s closing gig for the foreseeable future.

Kimbrel has been in the league for six years now and has been dominant over the entire course of his career. Last season he was shipped to San Diego and looked poised to continue that success on what seemed to be a ball club ready to make a postseason run.

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Even while the Padres struggled mightily, Kimbrel went out and did his usual thing and posted another solid season. To put into perspective how good Kimbrel has been in his career last season his, 39 SV/2.58 ERA/87 K, line is actually the worst season totals he has produced since he took over a full time closing gig in 2011.

Those numbers from any other closer would be a career year, but Kimbrel has set the bar so high that it shouldn’t shock us to see what his floor has become. While the Red Sox certainly improved their team by bringing in Kimbrel and moving Koji Uehera to the eighth inning, it remains to be seen what amount of save opportunities he will have in 2016.

Boston has a solid lineup, and now a solid back end of the bullpen, but the rest of the pitching staff from the starters to the middle inning relievers are still shaky at this point. While they have some high upside potential pieces like Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens, what good will it serve if a lead won’t stay in place until the ninth for Kimbrel?

This should serve has Boston’s first pitching oriented move, but it certainly shouldn’t be their last. I look for them to acquire an ace so the rotation shapes up more and eliminates some of the questions marks around where the quality innings will come from. If they can assemble a rotation possibly featuring, Acquired-Ace/Rodriguez/Owens/Miley/Porcello, it would at least allow us to believe that Kimbrel can surpass the 35+ SV mark which his draft day price tag will demand.

Moving from Petco to Fenway will likely cause his ERA to jump up some for the mere fact that he will be pitching in a bevy of hitter friendly ballparks next season, but this is a guy who hasn’t given up more than six homers in a season over his whole career, so worrying seems to be unnecessary.

Strikeout wise his totals have been dropping since 2012, but have leveled out in the 85-90 range which may or may be not be what drops him a tick below the likes of an Aroldis Chapman or Andrew Miller who offer that 100+ K upside. For me he still ranks in the top three at his position because his sheer consistency, skill-set and the potential to start offering 40+ saves again in Boston will continue to allow him to remain one the best in the game.

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Drafters opinion on Kimbrel’s fantasy rank heading into 2016 will probably not change and rightfully so, just keep close attention to the other pitching moves that the Red Sox may make in order for Kimbrel to maximize his value. My early projections for him would be around, 40 SV/2.75 ERA/90 K, so draft him aggressively as usual