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FanDuel Economics: MLB Position Analysis – First Base

By Matt Rogers

Apr 28, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) looks on against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 28, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) looks on against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /
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Apr 28, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) fields a throw against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 28, 2016; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt (44) fields a throw against the St. Louis Cardinals at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks won 3-0. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports /

FanDuel Economics: MLB Position Analysis – First Base

Welcome to the 1st FanDuel Economics: Position Analysis article of the 2016 season.  The Position Analysis articles are intended to take a snapshot of the FanDuel MLB year-to-date results, over a period of time, focused on each FanDuel MLB position.  While reviewing the year-to-date results, we’ll highlight the players who are compiling the most points, had the biggest salary adjustments, and have the best value at east position.  Like the daily FanDuel Economics articles, the intention of this column is to arm Daily Fantasy Baseball players with more information to use while choosing your picks for each MLB position.

Fittingly, we’re starting our first position analysis article with a look at First Base (1B).  At this point in the season, the regularly scheduled healthy first basemen have started at least 20 games.  So any first basemen who have not started at least 20 games in the season so far are not included in this analysis.

Here’s a a quick look at the three categories we’ll review:

  • Top 10 Points Per Game (PPG)
  • Top 10 Salary Adjustments
  • Top 10 Value Options

Before we get started, all of the statistics and FanDuel information is through Monday, May 2nd.  Now, let’s get started:

Next: First Base - Top 10 PPG

Apr 24, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo hits a two-run home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 24, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Chicago Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo hits a two-run home run against the Cincinnati Reds during the first inning at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports /

First base – Top 10 PPG

Highlights

Anthony Rizzo is starting the season off with a low batting average, .230, but that certainly doesn’t tell the whole story.  Anthony also has 8 home runs, tied for 3rd across the entire league.  Rizzo has 25 RBI’s, tying him for the MLB lead with Arenado and Cespedes.  Also, Anthony has 19 walks, 6th among all MLB hitters.  Rizzo even snuck in 2 stolen bases, so far this season, as well.  So while Rizzo isn’t hitting with a higher average, he’s making each hit and one base count.  Rizzo leads all MLB first basement with 15.0 FanDuel PPG and should be strongly considered each day at the 1B position, as long as you can afford him.

Chris Carter has been a bit of a surprise so far this year.  It’s not surprising that Carter is demonstrating power and has 7 home runs and 18 RBI’s already.  But it is surprising that Chris also has 15 runs and 10 doubles, with a .277 batting average.  In fact, he’s tied for 3rd in MLB in doubles.  But most surprising is that Carter isn’t leading the league in strikeouts.  Chris is notorious for home runs and strikeouts, making him a so-so fantasy hitter.  But this year seems different, so far.  Carter has 28 strikeouts, which is high, but that’s well below the league leader Trevor Story, who has 40.  In fact, Chris Davis and Wil Myers, both on the top 10 PPG list, each have 2 more K’s than Carter.  So Carter isn’t currently the high strikeout risk he used to be.  And for now, he’s consistently crushing the baseball.

Here’s a look at the Top 10 First Basement by FanDuel PPG:

Position     Name                               FanDuel PPG

  1.           Anthony Rizzo              15.0
  2.           David Ortiz                     14.5
  3.           Chris Carter                   12.3
  4.           Chris Davis                     12.2
  5.           Paul Goldschmidt         11.9
  6.           Brandon Belt                 11.8
  7.           Wil Myers                       11.3
  8.           Carlos Santana              10.8
  9.           Byung-Ho Park             10.7
  10.           Lucas Duda                    10.3

Now let’s take a look at Salary adjustments:

Next: First Base - Top 10 Salary Adjustments

Apr 14, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Joe Mauer (7) in the on deck circle in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 14, 2016; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Twins designated hitter Joe Mauer (7) in the on deck circle in the first inning against the Chicago White Sox at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports /

Top 10 Salary Adjustments

Highlights

Over the last couple of years, Joe Mauer has struggled with strikeouts increasing while average and power have been in decline.  But Mauer is off to a solid start this season, hitting .326.  Hopefully this hot start is a reminder to Twins fans that Joe is a .313 career hitter, still deserving of some praise.  Mauer is still lacking in power with only 1 home run, but he also has a triple and 6 doubles.  Coupled with 10 runs and 8 RBI’s, that’s still a very solid start.  The real eye-opener in Joe’s stat line is the 21 walks in 113 plate appearances.  That means Mauer is getting on base nearly 1 out of every two at-bats.  Unfortunately, FanDuel has noticed his increase in productivity this year and hiked his salary an incredible $1,000 since the start of the year, now to $3,500.  As a value option, Mauer isn’t attractive, only compiling 9.6 PPG, but he’s worth keeping an eye on.

Edwin Encarnacion has 16 RBI’s so far this season, but that aside he’s been quite a disappointment so far.  Hitting .235 with only 3 HR’s, and a 26 strikeouts is not what many Fantasy owners expected this season.  As a result, FanDuel has demoted Encarnacion’s salary down $800, to $3,200 on a very low 8 PPG average. The salary plummet is worth watching, though, because if Encarnacion can start to catch fire, he’ll be a very cheap and valuable option for a short period of time.

Paul Goldschmidt isn’t having a terrible year with 6 home runs, 16 RBI’s, and 27 walks.  However, he’s also hitting a very low .239 average and has 27 strikeouts as well.  Goldschmidt has a very good 11.9 PPG, 6th among all first basemen.  However, you’re still paying a very expensive $4,200.  For example, Chris Carter’s salary is $3,300 and he’s averaging 12.3 PPG, which is a much better deal.  It’s no wonder Paul’s salary dropped $600, to $4,200, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it continued to drop further.  But I would watch Goldschmidt’s salary drop just in case he finally hits a valuable level in the near future.

Here’s a look at the Top 10 First Basement by Salary Adjustments:

Position     Name                               Salary ($)     Salary Adj. ($)    Salary Adj. (%)

  1.          Joe Mauer                       $3,500          +$1,000               +40.0%
  2.          John Jaso                        $3,400          +$ 900                 +36.0%
  3.          Chris Carter                    $3,300          +$ 800                 +32.0%
  4.          Edwin Encarnacion      $3,200          -$ 800                  -20.0%
  5.          Byung-Ho Park              $3,300          +$ 700                 +26.9%
  6.          Brandon Belt                  $3,700          +$ 700                 +23.3%
  7.          Lucas Duda                     $3,200         +$ 600                  +23.1%
  8.          Kendrys Morales           $2,400          -$ 600                  -20.0%
  9.          Anthony Rizzo                $4,700         +$ 600                  +14.6%
  10.          Paul Goldschmidt          $4,200         -$ 600                   -12.5%

Now let’s take a look at Top Value:

Next: First Base - Top 10 Value

April 27, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) speaks with first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) before hitting in the eighth inning against Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
April 27, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder Yasiel Puig (66) speaks with first baseman Adrian Gonzalez (23) before hitting in the eighth inning against Miami Marlins at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

First Base – Top 10 Value

Highlights

There are interesting options at the top of the value board for first base.  Many of the best value options are sluggers, which isn’t surprising.  For the most part you’re paying a low salary for a high point game with just one home run yielding 18 points, any other hit or walk on top of a home run in the same game is gravy.

Adrian Gonzalez is one of the more intriguing value options on the board.  The only reason Gonzalez is climbing up the value board is due to his hot start followed by recent slump, a common theme on this list.  But there are a few solid options, like Adrian.  At some point, Gonzalez is going to snap his slump and start to catch fire again.  Adrian’s salary continues to plummet, now down to a very cheap $2,800.  Gonzalez is averaging 9.1 PPG on the season, which isn’t high, but that average would’ve been much higher if it wasn’t for his slump.  On the season, Adrian is hitting a respectable .277, with 3 home runs, 9 runs, and 15 RBI’s.  Also, Gonzalez has some great hitting around him in the Dodgers lineup, which could help him out of his slump and allow Adrian to continue to build a solid seasonal stat line.  I wouldn’t use Gonzalez in your lineup just yet.  But if he breaks his slump, immediately put Adrian into your lineup while he’s still cheap.

Similar to Gonzalez, Lucas Duda is having a solid season within a great lineup.  Unlike Gonzalez, Duda’s salary is climbing quickly.  Lucas is averaging .256 with 5 home runs, 12 runs, and 15 RBI’s.  Duda’s salary has climbed $600 to $3,200, but that still keeps Lucas at an attractive value option.  I’ve used Duda a few times already this season and he’s helped me get points while providing enough salary left over to pay for some more expensive point options in other positions.  I would continue to use Lucas as long as he’s this cheap, but his value may continue to drop as his salary continues to rise.

Here’s a look at the Top 10 First Basement by Salary Adjustments:

Position     Name                             Value (Points/$1,000)

  1.           Tyler White                  3.8
  2.           Chris Carter                 3.7
  3.           David Ortiz                  3.6
  4.           Wil Myers                     3.5
  5.           Adrian Gonzalez         3.3
  6.           Ryan Howard              3.3
  7.           Ryan Zimmerman      3.3
  8.           Carlos Santana            3.2
  9.           Lucas Duda                  3.2
  10.           Anthony Rizzo             3.2

To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.

For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column.  Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis.  Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options.  Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.

I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers!  Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!