FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 5th
By Matt Rogers
FanDuel Economics: MLB Picks May 5th
Welcome to FanDuel Economics! This is the MLB Thursday, May 5th Picks edition. FanDuel Economics is a daily fantasy sports column focused on FanDuel player salaries and FanDuel points-per-game (PPG) trends. The purpose of this column is to evaluate player salary and PPG averages over a period of time to provide daily fantasy sports players with a vital tool in their lineup tool belt. Finding the best value options often leads to a big pay day!
With 8 teams taking the day off on Thursday, we have a scaled down slate of 11 MLB games scheduled. The day starts off early at 1:45pm ET with Jerad Eickhoff, Phillies, throwing the first pitch in St. Louis in a great pitching match-up against Jaime Garcia, Cardinals. Here’s what the FanDuel schedule options look like to start:
- 1:45pm ET (All Day)
- 1:45pm ET (Early Only)
- 7:05pm ET (Main)
Before we dive into the MLB value picks for today, a reminder. The point analysis provided does not include some evening and late night game results, from the night before. However, the salary analysis is as of today.
If you have any questions while filling out your MLB FanDuel lineups feel free to contact me, Matt Rogers. Now, let’s take a look at today’s MLB value options:
Next: Value Pitchers
Value Pitchers
Michael Fulmer (6:10pm ET) is getting a second start for the Tigers with Shane Greene out for a short period of time. Fulmer is a young, 23, right handed pitcher who came into the Tigers organization in late July of last year as a result of the Cespedes trade. Michael’s first outing in Minnesota was solid. Fulmer took the win after 5 innings, giving up 2 earned runs but striking out 4 with only 1 walk. As a result Michael piled on 33 points by the end of the game. There is risk in picking someone like Fulmer who may be right back into the minors after this game, but there is also potential for reward. Michael’s salary tonight is a very low $6,400. With the potential for another 30-35 points, you’re getting a 5.2X value and plenty of salary to use on many sluggers. I also like the fact that Fulmer is facing Trevor Bauer of the Indians, who has struggled this year.
Joe Ross (8:05pm ET) is having a great season, but his FanDuel PPG season-to-date is very misleading. First, let’s talk about Joe’s season. Ross, whose 4th in the Nationals rotation, is 3-0 with a 0.79 ERA. Over 22.2 inning, Joe has 14 strikeouts and 7 walks. On April 20th, Ross, a right-handed pitcher, had to leave a game against the Marlins after pitching two complete innings because of a blister in his right middle finger. At the point of leaving, Joe had given up no earned runs, 1 hit, and 1 walk compiling only 6 FanDuel points. Ross was pulled from the following start due to the blister, but his 0 points is also included in the total average PPG FanDuel points. So while Joe Ross has a 28 PPG average year-to-date, that result is very misleading. When you remove the 6 points from the Marlins game and 0 points for being pulled from a start, Joe is actually averaging 44.7 PPG, a significantly better result. Considering Joe’s salary tonight of $7,500, his value is really a very high 6X. There is obvious risk picking a pitcher who’s facing a blaring hot Cubs team, but Ross is certainly having a great year and is the best value of all the pitcher options.
Adam Conley (7:10pm ET) is a talented young, 25 year old, pitcher in the 4th spot of the Marlins rotation. Conley is having a very up and down year. After five starts, Adam is 1-1 with a 3.67 ERA and 28 strikeouts over 27 innings. Conley had two rough outings though. To start the season, Conley left after the first inning against the Nationals in DC and had zero FanDuel points. Also, on April 24th against the Giants, Adam only compiled 11 points. However, Conley reprieved himself against the Nats later on compiling 32 points, with 8 K’s. Adam also had 45 points in New York against the Mets. Recently, on April 29th, Adam pitched 7.2 no-hit innings against the Brewers, including 7 K’s, compiling a season-high 56 points. Conley is averaging 28.8 PPG this year. With a $6,800 salary he’s a 4.2X value. That’s not nearly as high as Ross’ potential, but it’s possible we get Conley on a good day at home against the Diamondbacks giving us plenty of spending money on hitters as well.
Next: Value Hitters - INF
Value Hitters – INF
When we look for value hitters, we typically focus on how many points each hitter is getting per $1,000 of salary you need to spend. This ratio provides an understanding of how many points you’re getting for what you paid. It’s important to consider other factors when evaluating this information, though, like how many games they played in the average PPG or how they do vs. RHP/LHP. At the start of this season the values were all over the place. There were several hitters in the 5x-9x range, which is incredible value, and several in the 1x-3x range which is pretty bad value. Recently, the value range has started to level off as FanDuel adjusts salaries to players who are having hot/cold starts to the season. Lately, anyone over a 5.0X value is top 25.
Victor Martinez, C, (6:10pm ET) is having a great season and has been consistent since the start. Martinez is hitting .345 with 14 runs, 5 home runs, and 18 RBI’s. Over the last week, Victor is averaging 19.2 PPG including a 4 hit 1 HR game in Minnesota. Martinez’s salary actually recently dropped $100, to $3,700. So Victor is a strong 5.2X value tonight in Cleveland.
I recently wrote a 1B position analysis article so I won’t reiterate all I discuss there. But I’m still high on the value of people like Chris Carter (7:10pm ET) and Anthony Rizzo (8:05pm ET).
After hitting 3 home runs over his last 4 games and still having only a $3,300 salary, Brett Lawrie, 2B, (8:10pm ET) is a great value option tonight. Brett’s average over the last week is 16.9 PPG, 2nd behind a platooning Derek Dietrich. For tonight, Lawrie has a 5.1X value, the best of all consistently starting second basemen. Brett is a fantastic value option again tonight at home in Chicago.
The young 24 year old Nick Castellanos, 3B, (6:10pm ET) is starting to look like the exciting hitting prospect most Tigers fans had been expecting since his rookie season. Nick is averaging .368 on the season with 11 runs, 4 HR’s, and 19 RBI’s. Castellanos continues to be consistently hot. Yesterday, Corey Kluber pitched a great 4-0 shutout against the Tigers and only get up 5 hits. However, Nick had 2 of those 5 hits, hitting 6th in the lineup just behind Justin Upton. I like Castellanos again in Cleveland tonight.
We visited Jonathan Villar, SS, (7:10pm ET) yesterday so I won’t go into detail again today. But, with a $3,300 salary today, a $100 increase from yesterday, I love Villar’s 5.6X value tonight.
Next: Value Hitters - OF
Value Hitters – OF
Marcell Ozuna (7:10pm ET) has been crushing the ball lately. In three games between April 3rd and May 3rd, Marcell slapped a home run in each game. Ozuna has a low .228 seasonal average, but with 5 home runs, 11 runs, and 13 RBI’s, Marcell is still a power option in the outfield and has been on fire over the last week. With a 16.9 PPG average over seven days and a $3,400 salary tonight, Ozuna is a great 5X value deal for this position. He’s worth a value consideration at home against the D-backs tonight.
We talked about Hunter Pence (10:15pm ET) on Monday and I like Matt Kemp (10:10pm ET) as well tonight. Both are averaging 18.9 PPG, tied for 4th among all outfielders, and each both have a $3,900 salary tonight. That’s a 4.8X value for two of the top 5 hitting outfielders. With the other value options, you should be able to plug each into your lineup and have a good night.
To re-visit other recent value options for FanDuel MLB, view some of my other columns.
For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my good friend and follow staff writer Brian Tulloch’s MLB Picks & Pivots column. Also, Mike Marteny provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis. Draft King uses a different point system and Mike does a great job of breaking down your options. Both also provide great ‘stacking’ options which I like to discuss and use as well.
I wish you all well tonight FanDuelers! Spend smartly and enjoy the return on your savings!