FanDuel MLB Picks: Picks and Pivots for May 29
Welcome to the Sunday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy baseball column focused on providing analysis and insights into the top FanDuel MLB Picks . The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
FanSided and Fantasy CPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.
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Sunday sets up as it normally does with games kicking off at 1:07PM EST and continuing through the afternoon with the slate ending with the Sunday Night Dodgers and Mets contest.
I will continue to track winning Tournament lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.
The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:
| Time Period | Score | Pitcher Salary | Pitcher % | Hitter % | Hitter $/Player | Value |
| Season | 250.6 | $ 8,637 | 25% | 75% | $ 3,295 | 7.16 |
| 5 Day | 242.2 | $ 9,938 | 28% | 72% | $ 3,133 | 6.92 |
| Prev Day | 269.8 | $ 7,300 | 21% | 79% | $ 3,463 | 7.71 |
Now on to the picks…For more DFS Strategy insights, check out my latest article to help take your game to the next level! I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.
Next: Is it Kershaw or bust?
Clayton Kershaw ($13,300) takes the hill Sunday night at Citi Field is will be the chalk FanDuel MLB Pick in cash games with good reason. Kershaw is averaging 57 points per game over the last month and has struck out double digit batters in 6 of his 7 last starts. Even at this price point, Kershaw makes for an almost must play in cash games….unless his fastball gets away from him, almost hits David Wright and in that case he should be sent to the showers early. (Yes I am a bitter Mets fan and had Noah Syndergaard in every DFS lineup Saturday night).
Taijuan Walker ($9,000) at home versus Minnesota – Outside of Kershaw we have some intriguing tournament options if you are looking to fade the Dodgers lefty. Walker checks off many of the boxes when trying to identify a strong starting pitcher on FanDuel as he is heavily favored (-180) and gets to face a Twins team with one of the lowest projected totals on the slate.
The Twins have one of the highest strikeout rates in all of baseball at 23.3% and interestingly on the road they lead the league in strikeouts per game with 10.6.
Walker has a strong match-up which should allow him to pick up a win and faces a free swinging team that should allow him to exceed his 23% k rate on the 2016 season.
Chris Tillman ($8,600) at Cleveland – One of my favorite pitching plays over the last month has been the Orioles right hander as I have frequently used him in DFS and grabbed him in my season long league as well.
Tillman has averaged 45.4 points per start over the last month, which at 5.3x value, represents the best value play of any starting pitcher on Sunday’s slate.
Tillman has been the model of consistency over the last month, giving owner’s 6-7 innings per start with between 6 and 9 strikeouts while winning 5 of his last 6 starts.
Tillman also has great career numbers against the Indians hitters, holding them to a .220 average and only surrendering 1 home run in 82 at bats.
Pitching Summary: If you are playing cash games, paying up for Kershaw is the smartest choice and frankly you do not need to put in much more effort than clicking on his name and moving on. With most gamers opting to pay up for Kershaw this should leave the other high priced aces, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale and David Price to be under owned and they make for interesting pivots.
Tillman and Walker make for my favorite plays in tournaments as they allow you to save significant salary for high end bats and have the ability to hit/exceed 5x value with the match-ups they have in front of them.
Next: Which bats should be in your lineup?
Sunday presents a very interesting dilemma for gamers as if you choose to pay up for Clayton Kershaw then it will be nearly impossible to fit in the top bats from the highest projected scoring teams on Sunday.
Chicago Cubs home versus RHP Vincent Velasquez – The Cubs are the highest projected scoring team on Sunday’s slate and with the wind blowing out to right field at 15 MPH, you are going to want some exposure to this game.
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The Cubs are projected to score 5.69 runs on Sunday and the Cubs offense has been on fire lately making them the top stack even with a game in Coors Field.
Jason Heyward ($3,400) has been the hottest hitter on Chicago over the last week as he has averaged 14.6 points per game which at 4.3x value makes him a top play in all formats.
Anthony Rizzo ($3,700) is at his lowest price point on the season and with this match-up, I am locking the Cubs first basemen into all Chicago stacks on Sunday!
Jose Bautista ($4,500) versus David Price – One of the best BvP plays on the board Sunday, ois Bautista against the Red Sox left hander. I expect Bautista will go under owned as many opt to pay up for their starting pitcher or the bats in Chicago or Coors Field which make this an interesting tournament pivot.
Bautista is 18 for 52 in his career against Price with 5 home runs and 12 RBI’s which makes this a top end play for gamers looking to differentiate their lineups on Sunday.
Hitting Summary: If you are able to, targeting the Cubs hitters in Wrigley Field is the top spot for offense and players like Jason Heyward and Anthony Rizzo sit at great price points in all formats. The Giants in Coors Field are the next best place to find offense and I expect them to be highly owned so one interesting pivot as Mike Marteny outlined in his DraftKings picks for Sunday, is the Royals stack against Chris Sale.
Next: DFS Strategy - Take Your Game to the Next Level
Best of luck tonight gamer’s! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!