DraftKings Early MLB Picks For July 24
12 of the 15 games are in the early tournament, which gives us nearly a full slate to choose from. There are six pitchers that cost more than $9,000. Are any of them worth paying for? Where are some bargains so we can afford someone that expensive? Let’s go over the past stats to find out!
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NOTE: these picks are based solely on statistics. Some players have never faced their opponents, or have very little experience against them. I am not saying that none of those are good picks. The highest scorer of the day could be someone with no experience against his opponent. This is based on statistical analysis only. If you have a gut feeling, then by all means, follow that. This is not an exact science. The best lineups usually have a mix of proven stats and hot players.
Vincent Velasquez has never faced the Pirates, but he is 8-2 with a 3.15 ERA this season. He is to the point where he is almost matchup proof. He has given up just seven runs in his last six starts. There is a reason for caution though. Velasquez has a 4.74 road ERA.
Jameson Taillon has had a promising start to his major league career, going 2-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in six starts. He has never faced the Phillies, but I can’t think of a good reason not to use him.
Lucas Giolito has not been as fortunate. He had a really good start going in his debut against the Mets, but was pulled after four innings because of a rain delay. Nine days later, he faced the Mets again, and they put up four runs on him in 3.2 innings. He may be worth using against a mediocre Padres offense today.
Brandon Finnegan has never faced the Diamondbacks. His 4.66 ERA and the wealth of right handed power in this lineup should tell you all you need to know. Stay away.
The current Reds are a combined 1-7 off of Zack Godley. He would be worth a flier in a short slate, but it probably best avoided here.
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Next: Pitcher Picks
Corey Kluber ($10,900): The Orioles have hit a respectable .277 against Kluber so far, but they have also struck out 21 times in 65 at bats. Any damage done will be offset by the strikeouts. He has by far the most strikeout potential of the day. This is a situation where most of today’s options have negative histories against their opponents. I trust Kluber more than most.
Junior Guerra ($8,900): Guerra was solid against the Cubs on May 19th, giving up three runs on only five hits while striking out a season-high 11 in seven innings en route to the victory. This game is also in Milwaukee, but he is facing off against Jon Lester. A win here may be hard to come by, and 11 strikeouts again seems unlikely.
Edinson Volquez ($6,400): On the surface, this looks awful. The Rangers are hitting a modest .256, but they have five homers and 19 RBI in just 86 at bats. Dig a little deeper though, and you will realize that most of the damage is done by players on the DL. Shin-Soo Choo, Prince Fielder, and Josh Hamilton are a combined 10-37 with two homers and 11 RBI. The rest of the team is hitting .244 with three homers and seven RBI with 12 strikeouts in 49 at bats. That makes him a solid option.
Tim Lincecum ($6,200): Lincecum has held the Astros to a .224 average in 58 at bats with two homers and seven RBI with a whopping 22 strikeouts. The strikeout potential alone makes this an intriguing pick. His return to the majors has been less than stellar so far, so there is plenty of risk involved.
Next: Who Are The Best Stacks?
You have heard our FanDuel experts Matt Rogers and Brian Tulloch talk about “stacking” pieces of a lineup against certain pitchers. Here are the stacks that could work well on DraftKings today, based on past statistics.
Carlos Beltran ($3,600) is 5-16(.313) with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI off of Jeff Samardzija. Jacoby Ellsbury ($3,800) is 2-6 with a homer and four RBI. Starlin Castro ($3,400) is 2-3, but has no counting stats. Didi Gregorius ($3,600) is 3-8 with two walks, a double, and two RBI against the Shark. Chase Headley ($3,400) is 5-13(.385) with four walks and two doubles. Mark Teixeira ($3,100) only has one hit in seven at bats against Samardzija, but that hit is a home run.
The Tigers are hitting .344 against Jose Quintana in his career, so you know there are some stack options here. Mike Aviles ($2,300) is 10-26(.385) with a walk and a RBI, but all of the hits are singles. Miguel Cabrera ($3,000) is 13-35(.371) with four walks, five doubles, a homer and six driven in. Surprisingly, that is the only homer the team has against Quintana. Nick Castellanos ($3,000) is 9-26(.346) with a walk and three RBI. Jose Iglesias ($2,500) is once again a good low priced option. He is 4-13 with a double and a RBI against Quintana. Ian Kinsler ($4,800) is 12-36 with a walk, two doubles, and two RBI. Victor Martinez ($2,800) is 14-33(.424) with two doubles and three RBI. Justin Upton ($3,300) is 2-5 with a walk, a double, and two driven in. There are plenty of options here!
The Mariners have blasted J.A. Happ in his career. Nori Aoki ($2,200) is 7-14 with two doubles, a homer, and two RBI off of Happ. Robinson Cano ($4,000) is only 5-22(.227) off of Happ, but he has a walk, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI. Nelson Cruz ($4,200) is 8-15(.533) with a double, a triple, and two RBI. Chris Iannetta ($2,500) is 4-7 with three walks, a double, a homer, and two RBI. Kyle Seager ($2,800) has bucked the lefty-lefty trend. He is 4-9 with two homers and three RBI off of Happ.
Brian Dozier ($3,700) is only 8-34(.235) against Rick Porcello, but he has three walks, a double, three homers, and eight RBI off of him. Joe Mauer ($4,200) is 14-55(.255) with five walks, five doubles, and six RBI. Kurt Suzuki ($2,700) is only 5-23(.217), but he has four walks, two doubles, and five RBI. Kennys Vargas ($3,900) is 3-5 with a triple and a solo homer off of Porcello.
Jose Abreu ($3,800) is 6-11(.545) with two walks, two doubles, two homers, and six RBI against Anibal Sanchez. Melky Cabrera ($3,600) is 15-31(.484) with a double, a triple, and five RBI. Adam Eaton ($3,600) is 4-11 with a walk, a homer, and two RBI. Avisail Garcia ($2,500) is 3-12 with a pair of RBI. Stacking against Sanchez looks like a great idea right now.
Watch for falling objects at Rogers Centre today. Josh Donaldson ($5,500) is only 2-7, but he has two walks, a homer, and two RBI against Wade Miley. Edwin Encarnacion ($4,900) is 4-7 with four walks, two doubles, a homer, and two RBI off Miley. Troy Tulowitzki ($3,400) is 6-16(.375) with four walks, two doubles, a homer, and three RBI against Miley.
Next: More Notes For 7-24
Carlos Gomez ($2,500) is only 4-19(.211) off of Tim Lincecum, but he has a double, a homer, and four RBI against him. Carlos Correa ($5,100) is perfect against Lincecum with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against him.
Daniel Murphy ($5,000) is 2-4 with a walk, a double, a homer, and three RBI against Christian Friedrich. Jayson Werth ($4,400) is 3-4 with a walk, a double, and two driven in. At least he doesn’t have to face Ryan Zimmerman, who has a homer and five RBI off of him.
Brandon Crawford ($4,600) is 3-12 with a homer and two RBI against Nate Eovaldi. Angel Pagan ($4,100) is 3-5 with a walk, a double, and two RBI. Buster Posey ($4,100) is 3-8 with a walk, a double, and four RBI. On the bright side, he doesn’t have to face Hunter Pence, who is 6-12 with a homer and five RBI off of him.
Be sure to check out the FanDuel picks from out experts in that area! Brian Tulloch provides the picks, while Matt Rogers tells you where to save in his FanDuel Economics articles. Don’t play FanDuel without them!
Good luck out there, and check out our picks for FanDuel baseball!