DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 4 Top Plays
By Ty Wrage
DraftKings NFL Picks: Week 4 Top Plays is a column that finds the players who are in the best situation to do well that week based primarily off opportunity and match up. You’ll get an insight into the mind of a consistently profitable DFS player and give yourself the best chance at hitting it big on the week’s slate!
Week 4 is upon us, or as Patriots’ fans are probably saying, The Last Week Without Tom Brady is upon us! Due to the Jaguars and Colts playing in London, we have just a 12 game main slate for the Sunday games on DraftKings.
There are a few games that Vegas really likes for fantasy purposes, most notably the Saints/Chargers and Panthers/Falcons games. Even a couple weeks removed from an apocalyptic Week 2, there is still plenty of value on the board due to some key injuries for some teams.
Let’s dig in!
DraftKings NFL Picks: Quarterbacks
Derek Carr ($6,700): This isn’t the same Raiders team as the last 10 years, and that’s largely due to the development of young studs like Carr and Amari Cooper. Oakland continues to rely heavily on the passing game, ranking 11th in the league in passing attempts through 3 weeks. With Baltimore listed as close favorites in this one, the Raiders should have their foot on the gas pedal for four quarters, and that means plenty of opportunity for Carr & Co.
The Ravens have been known for their stout defenses in the past, but this squad has some holes. Jimmy Smith is well removed from his 2014 season, and Jarraud Powers and Shareece Wright are below-average corner backs at best. Their stats only look good because they’ve faced an injured Sammy Watkins and the Browns in two of their games, and they’ve allowed both Allen Robinson and Corey Coleman to have big games against them. The run defense is still elite, though, and they tend to funnel teams into passing the ball more than usual. Target Carr in both cash and GPPs.
Phillip Rivers ($6,900): I won’t be the only one on Rivers this week, but the Chargers have the highest Vegas team-total on the slate and Rivers is going to have a big part in that. Even with Keenan Allen, Danny Woodhead, and likely Antonio Gates out, the Chargers remain a very pass-heavy team.
The biggest reason to like Rivers is the matchup with the Saints. The Saints have the worst defense in the NFL, and losing Delvin Breaux doesn’t help that. According to Pro Football Focus’s grading, New Orleans doesn’t have a single player with an above average grade in their starting lineup. Play Rivers in cash, and while I could see fading him in GPPs due to high ownership, I’ll certainly have plenty of shares.
Others I Like: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Kirk Cousins, Carson Palmer, Russell Wilson, Trevor Semien
DraftKings NFL Picks: Running Backs
Melvin Gordon ($6,300): With Danny Woodhead out, Melvin Gordon is the unquestioned lead back in San Diego. He was a very popular DFS play last week, and despite getting a touchdown, was a bit disappointing. I’m actually a little glad about that, because I suspect his ownership will be lower than it should be in this match up.
There was some concern about the addition of Dexter McCluster stealing workload, but last week Gordon took all 16 carries from Chargers running backs, with McCluster limited to some passing down work. The Saints allowed 217 rushing yards to the Falcons last week, and that doesn’t appear to be a fluke; they’re REALLY bad. Fire up Gordon in all formats with confidence.
Demarco Murray ($6,800): After a disappointing run with the Eagles, Murray has carved himself out a nice role in the run-heavy Titans offense. Rookie Derrick Henry still gets his share of carries, but Murray is the guy they go to in both passing and goal-line situations, giving him far more upside and a high floor.
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The Texans defense took a big blow this week when J.J. Watt was announced out with a back injury, and without Watt, I’m not incredibly scared of them. Whitney Mercilus, Jadeveon Clowney, and Bernardrick McKinney are all capable run stoppers, but Murray will beat them in a variety of different ways, especially in the J.J. Watt-sized hole up front. Murray should be one of the lower-owned backs this week, so feel free to target in tournaments.
Jordan Howard (3,700): Jordan Howard is to this week what Christine Michael was last week: a cheap back who, due to several injuries, is forced into a big role in a great match up. Jeremy Langford and Ka’Deem Carey are both out for the week with injuries, so Howard should be the bell-cow. The Indiana product has looked great in limited action, and for $3,700, just about any production he has will reach value for cash games.
The Lions’ front seven is very exploitable, especially with injuries to DeAndre Levy and Ezekiel Ansah. With Brian Hoyer at the helm, look for the Bears to rely on the run game a bit more than usual if the game stays close. Howard checks the opportunity box and the matchup box, so we can lock him into our lineups in all formats.
Others I like: Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, Carlos Hyde, Cameron Artis-Payne, Matt Jones, CJ Anderson, Charles Sims, David Johnson, Lamar Miller, Matt Forte
DraftKings NFL Picks: Wide Receivers
Marvin Jones ($7,300): If you played Jones last week, you made money. I had him locked into every lineup I made, and I’m going back to the well, despite the price increase and likely ownership increase. The Bears just placed their CB1, Kyle Fuller, on the IR, so corners like Tracy Porter and Jacoby Glenn will be on Jones the whole game. Despite the injuries, the Bears made solid improvements to their front seven, and this is a team that will likely funnel opponents into passing more than normal.
Right now, Jones is basically taking on Calvin Johnson‘s role. He leads the team in red zone targets and deep targets (targets of more than 15 yards through the air), and last week’s 6 catch, 205 yard, 2 score game is an example of what can happen when a player is given this kind of opportunity. Harold Jones-Quartey and Adrian Amos are below-average safeties, and I think this is another game where Jones could find himself behind the defense a lot. Even with the price jump and high-ownership, Jones is a great play in cash and tournaments.
Michael Crabtree ($6,400): When you look at the Raiders’ receivers, Amari Cooper looks like the clear number 1 target. While they’re certainly moving in that direction, Crabtree still has a sizable role in the offense for the time-being. His 25 targets are second on the team behind Cooper’s 29. We know the Ravens are bad at defending both WR1 and WR2 from the Derek Carr section, so why do I like Crabtree over Cooper?
The Ravens’ corner backs are bad, but their safeties are not. Cooper is a big-play specialist similar to Marvin Jones above, but he’ll have a hard time getting past Eric Weddle and Lardarius Webb on the back-end of the Ravens’ defense. Cooper is talented enough that he’ll still put up a good stat-line with upside for a huge day, Crabtree comes at a nice discount and should get plenty of work underneath, the soft spot of the Ravens’ defense.
Emmanuel Sanders ($6,400): Sanders has quietly been having himself a great season so far, with 17 catches for 205 yards on a team-high 29 targets. Demaryius Thomas is generally thought of as the top receiver in Denver, and while he still gets his share of looks (20 targets), Sanders and quarterback Trevor Semien clearly have rapport. As an inexperienced passer, Semien likes to use Sanders as a bit of a safety blanket underneath, and on a full PPR site like DraftKings, that sets Sanders up for a great floor.
This Bucs’ defense is looking like one of the most obvious funnel teams in the league. They have an elite run defense and a very poor pass defense, so teams will pass a lot more against them if the game is close. Sanders will line up against Brett Grimes and Alterraun Verner, neither of which are anything that would keep me from playing Sanders. Sanders doesn’t play in the slot much (16% of his snaps) so he’ll avoid Vernon Hargreaves III for most of the game, who I think is the scariest of the Tampa corners. Demaryius Thomas is an elite play in this game too, but I feel that Sanders has the better floor on DraftKings specifically.
Kevin White ($3,400): Jordan Howard isn’t the only value to be found in Chicago this week! White missed last season due to injury, and in his first few games the former first round pick has shown his flaws, but has also had flashes of brilliance. Brian Hoyer locked onto White in his first start last week for a team-high 14 targets, and White currently leads the team in targets with 27 because the Bears inexplicably refuse to use Alshon Jeffrey.
Against the Lions, I would expect this trend to continue. Darius Slay is still an elite corner back and will be shadowing Jeffrey for most of the game, leaving Nevin Lawson to try to contain White. Lawson is one of the worst starting corners in the league right now, and if White continues to see the workload he’s been getting, he’s in a spot for a monster game. At just $3,400, he’s a must-play this week for me.
Others I like: Travis Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, Antonio Brown, Golden Tate, Amari Cooper, Cole Beasley, Brice Butler, Demaryius Thomas, Tavon Austin, Larry Fitzgerald, DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Jeremy Maclin, Doug Baldwin
DraftKings NFL Picks: Tight Ends
Travis Kelce ($4,800): Kelce is never a sexy pick in DFS, but he often gets the job done. He leads the Chiefs in receptions and receiving yards, and he’s Alex Smith‘s favorite red zone target. Because the target distribution in KC is so narrow, he has an extremely high floor, making him a great cash game play.
The Steelers have a great run defense, and like the Buccaneers, Ravens, and Bears, will funnel opposing offenses into beating them through the air. William Gay and Ross Cockrell are good corners, so they should collectively keep Jeremy Maclin in check, leaving a lot of targets for Kelce. The Steelers are especially week to tight ends because their linebackers and safeties are very weak in coverage. Kelce is always capable of putting up big games, and this seems like the spot to take him at a discount from Greg Olsen, who is also in a great spot but will be much higher owned.
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Coby Fleener ($3,200): Fleener was really, really bad through the first two games. He was dropping balls and missing routes, but somehow Drew Brees gave him another chance last week, and he came through for 7 catches, 109 yards and a touchdown. One narrative could be that Fleener cut his iconic hair, but reports are that Brees and Fleener are starting to develop real chemistry. It’s no secret that Brees loves his tight ends (he even made Ben Watson look good!), and this week against the Chargers he’ll have plenty of reason to throw there.
It goes under the radar, but the Chargers’ cornerbacks are some of the best in the game. Jason Verrett, Casey Heyward and Brandon Flowers are all above average players, and they make very hard on opposing receivers. With his wideouts struggling to get open, Brees will turn to Fleener, who draws a very favorable matchup against the slow San Diego linebackers. At just $3,200, play Fleener in all formats.
Others I like: Greg Olsen, Hunter Henry, Dennis Pitta, Jason Witten, Zach Miller
DraftKings NFL Picks: Defense
Arizona Cardinals ($3,900): The Cardinals defense is one of the best in the league. The Rams are starting Case Keenum at quarterback. This one isn’t that hard to understand; the Cardinals are going to walk all over the Rams, and I have a hard time believing that a Rams’ offense that failed to score on the 49ers will put up a lot on Arizona.
The other advantage that we get by playing Arizona in this situation is that Los Angeles will likely be playing from behind, and the majority of turnovers occur when a team is hurrying their offense trying to play catch-up. There’s enough value on the slate that you should have no problem finding the salary space to play the Cardinals.
Others I Like: Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks, Texans, Redskins
Next: FanDuel NFL: Quarterbacks Week 4
Best of luck in Week 4 as you build your DFS lineups!