FanDuel NBA Picks and Pivots November 10
Welcome to the FanDuel NBA edition of Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best FanDuel NBA lineup!
The purpose of this FanDuel NBA column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big payday!
For those of you that are new to Picks and Pivots, we will go through the season tracking trends in this space by looking at the winning GPP lineups each day.
One of the most basic questions when starting out the NBA season is how many points should I be targeting for tournament entries? A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
A good rule of thumb is that you want your players to exceed 6x their salary so on a $60k team salary you are looking for 360+ points. If you spread that out over a roster of 9 players, that is an average of 40 points per player.
Now it is unreasonable to expect every player to hit that target, especially when you are utilizing value plays but remember that is the average you need over the course of your roster!
To start the year, I would simply build your roster with the simple 6x rule in mine and do the math quickly. Can I see player X hitting 6x their salary? For example, LeBron James is priced at $9,600 so in order to return value he would need to exceed 57 points.
This is not a hard and fast rule, but as we go through the season I will track the trends each night to understand the target multiplier we should use as our baseline.
Over the first 13 slates, we have seen the average winning GPP score at 365.1 a night which means we have needed 6.1x value to win big!
Thursday’s Main NBA action kicks off at 8:00PM EST with four games on the main slate and no shortage of superstars to choose from. Without further ado – let’s get into our top picks for the day!
FanDuel NBA – Top Point Guards
Stephen Curry ($8,900) Looking over this four game slate there is one clear game to target and I plan on having heavy exposure to it across all formats! The Warriors and Nuggets open with a 221.5 combined team total which is over 10 points higher than any other game and Vegas expects it to stay close (6.5 spread) which means we should see the Warriors stars play a full complement of minutes.
Curry is coming off a record-setting 59.5 FanDuel performance on the back of 13 three-pointers and although we cannot predict a repeat, this match-up sets up well for Curry to exceed his still reduced price point. The Nuggets are giving up 52.33 FD points per game to opposing PG’s which is the 2nd highest mark in the entire league which makes this an ideal spot to target Curry!
Emmanuel Mudiay ($5,900) Staying in the same game, I am happy to stack the two point guards in this contest to maximize my exposure here in a favorable match-up for both players. The Warriors are giving up the 8th most points to opposing PG’s this season and with Mudiay averaging 35.5 FD points per game over his last two contests (6x value), this is a great spot to not only save salary but target a high upside GPP play to pair with Curry.
FanDuel NBA – Top Shooting Guards
Dwayne Wade ($6,700) He’s baaaaaack! Wade returns to Miami for the first time since his off-season departure to Chicago and I am all about the narrative here when locking in Wade. The Chicago-Miami game has by far the lowest implied team totals but Wade is the one player I will actively target in this spot as I expect the Bulls to feed him the ball so he can show Miami what they are missing!
The match-up here from a statistical standpoint is one we wouldn’t normally target but I absolutely want to ensure I have exposure to a highly motivated Wade who is capable of a monster DFS revenge game!
Klay Thompson ($5,900) Heading back to Golden State-Denver, I will look to double up on the Warriors back court and target a still under priced Klay Thompson. The Nuggets are giving up the 7th most FanDuel points to opposing SG’s and Klay continues to be a major component in this offense as I noted in my Wednesday Picks and Pivots.
So far this season, Klay is averaging 17 shots per game which is in line with his averages for the last two season so even with Durant in tow, the offensive opportunities remain high for Thompson. The issue so far has been his efficiency, as he has shot a career low 41.2% so once the efficiency returns to his career norm we will see the increased fantasy output so take advantage of this price while you can!
FanDuel NBA – Top Small Forwards
Justise Winslow ($4,800) Small forward looks like the best spot to save salary at tonight as I fully expect to fade Kevin Durant while getting exposure to the other Warriors starters. Durant gets by far the toughest match-up as the Nuggets are allowing the fewest points to opposing SF this season and KD has failed to exceed 50 FD points in any of his last four outings.
Winslow makes for a great salary saver on this slate as he continues to get major minutes (36 mpg) and has not attempted fewer than 13 shots in any game this season. Although this game has the lowest projected total, the Bulls can be targeted with opposing SF’s as they have been a middle of the road match-up (14th in DvP) and Winslow has hit 6x in a third of his games this season. Assuming Winslow continues to get major minutes and continues to get high offensive usage, he makes for a great sub 5k play that allows you to pay up for stars elsewhere.
Luol Deng (4,500) The second SF spot on FanDuel is tough to nail down tonight but I do like the match-up that Deng has on this slate as the Kings are giving up the 8th most FD points to opposing SF’s on the season. If you want to save some additional salary you can easily pivot down to Matt Barnes or Solomon Hill who get similar minutes and can be utilized to free up cap room across your roster.
FanDuel NBA – Top Power Forwards and Center
Draymond Green ($8,400) The final piece of an all out Warriors stack, Green continues to dominate in the non-scoring statistical category which makes him an easy pairing with the more scoring dependent Warrior back-court. Green is averaging 10.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 2.4 steals and 1.7 blocks on the season while putting up 40 FD points per game. The Nuggets are surrendering 53.18 FD points per game to opposing PF’s which is the 4th highest mark in the league and it makes Draymond a top PF target on this slate.
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Nikola Jokic ($5,400) Yes, another player from this game! Golden State is giving up 55 FD points per game to opposing PF’s which is the highest mark in the NBA which makes Jokic a highly intriguing GPP target on this slate. Jokic only has one game over 25 FD points this season so he is a strict GPP play only but in the highest scoring game on the night against a team that struggles against PF’s, you wont get a much better spot to target Jokic!
DeMarcus Cousins ($9,500) Wait so you are telling me I can stack the Warriors AND lock in Boogie Cousins against the Lakers? I love the high upside GPP potential of this lineup and with a small slate I want to maximize my exposure to as many available stars as possible.
Boogie has exceeded 50 points in 2 of his last 4 games and the Lakers present a top 10 DvP match-up to opposing center so this could be a highly exploitable spot for Cousins and one we should look to lock in across all formats with the Warriors 3 man stack!